One reason why Yes-Recall vote is now tanking...my theory

[AP]

Arnold has spent so little time defining his public persona (beyond being a movie star) -- ie, nobody really knows what he'd do as governor -- that, now that they have this new information it's rapidly filling up people's perceptions. It's hard not to look at him now and see a sleezy groper.

Up until this weekend, Arnold's persona mostly consisted of projecting the qualities of fictional characters he's played, and I think the voters generally know the difference between fiction and reality (although many might be confused). Nobody really knows what the private man is like (and I believe that voters are obsessed primarily with a politician's biography...I believe that voters use a politicians real life to predict 90% of what they think that person would do as a politician).

So now that we're learning that, in his private time -- not in the movies -- this guy defrauded insurance companies by knocking over chimnees so he could repair them, admired Hitler, gropes women, might have an illegitimate child, and meets with corporate insiders interested in lying about the causes of the energy crises, and making sure that they don't have to give back money they stole from the public. These perceptions are rapidly filling up those gaps in Arnold's identity which the campaign fastidiously avoided addressing.

Had Arnold done more debates, and opened himself up to the public, and not limited his early "appearances" to fundraisers before friendly, planted audiences, he probably could have innoculated himself from having these perceptions hurt him.

Think about the Bush drunk driving charges in the last days of the campaign. Even though Bush wasn't exactly open with the public, his biography/persona had been firmly established by the last week of the campaign. So people were willing to take all those other conclusions they'd previously drawn and use them to forgive Bush for the new revelation which seemed so in character in many ways (we all knew he had a drinking problem, and he was stopped for going too slow for god's sake, we know he's slow!).

I think, if Arnold loses, it'll be kind of funny. All that money and effort by the media, and, essentially, he'll lose because they didn't bother telling us who this guy was beyond his fictional identity, which most people were sufficiently sophisticated to recognize as fictional. I mean, they could have created a fake private persona, but they didn't even bother doing that.

[DulceDecorum]

1. What is going to happen

to Hans and Frantz,
and the myriad of Public Relations firms hired
to pump him up?

Hear me now and believe me later,
someone is going to be very angry.

[Tip]

2. drunk driving

as an aside, regarding bush's drunk driving:

he wasn't driving too slow despite the story pressed in the media. .. I learned this in the new (awesome) Al Franken book, Lies (and so forth).

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Page 46:

Question: Do you know why he was stopped, Karen? Was he driving erratically or anything?

Karen Hughes: I believe they - I don't know exactly, no. I don't know. There was no - there was no incident - there's - I don't know exactly. There was some discussion that he appeared to have been driving too slow - too slowly.

The real answer? Bush was arrested because he drove into a hedge. That's what the arresting officer, Calvin Bridges, a former Kennebunkport policeman, told Portland, Maine's Fox-51 reporter Erin Fehlau the day the story broke...

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[salin]

8. welcome to DU!

great book, isn't it! Humor along with great documentation. Thanks for sharing that tidbit and reality check for those who might have missed it.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi Tip!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[0rganism]

10. but he hit that hedge so slowly...

Perhaps Karen Hughes was hedging? (yuk yuk yuk)

Welcome to DU, Tip!

[salin]

3. Very good assessment

They chose to run him on his persona, glam, and ability to get free media coverage based on star power.

Devoid of policy positions.

Almost worked (many voters really don't care that much about policy positions - but they do like those positions to "make sense"... so it plays a bit into the decision making process).

You point out the irony that the strategy had one big vulnerability. And now it is getting exploited.

[AP]

4. They ran him on a fictional persona...

...which was good enough for people, so long as some true stories didn't start filling up the void of reality.

Now that there are some true stories which look bad, there aren't enough true stories which look good to fend them off.

I really wouldn't be surprised if we finally saw him with his kids for the first time in an effort to make him look like a family man (unless Maria has totally nixed that possiblity).

But it'll be kind of disgusting to see a groper on stage with his little daughter, perhaps (especially, considering that he did some groping after she was born, and in light of that one story where Arnold asked the woman if her daughter could take a walk for a little while while the mother hung out in Arnold's hotel room).

(Incidentally, I noticed Maria has poofed up her Aushwitz hairstyle since the Hitler comments came out).

[salin]

7. very good point - a manufactured persona

second good point - they are unable to whip out competing stories - that is examples of the wonderful things that he has done. The only one seems to be his work on a previous ballot initiative and that one has already been done.

We aren't hearing of his ongoing volunteer work on behalf of x or y causes.

Buried in one of the stories today (LA Times) an accuser says that Arnie did volunteer on a fitness campaign before female inmates - BUT in that story it was a mixed message (he was crude and demeaning, before he then did some decent 'fitness' stuff).

I really feel for Maria in all of this. The public humiliation in the unmasking of her husband. But she did sign on for it.

[eleny]

5. Good thoughts!

When he first declared, he was surrounded by successful business people and Dreier jumped in to shore up the political side. So, some of their success in business and politics shed a credible glow on Arnold.

But during the debate, he showed his personal, nasty side that Ariana helped draw out. Then the predator allegations started and he also refused to debate Davis. Things are starting to crumble. One can only hope that it's not all too late, given that there are 2 million absentee ballots already cast.

Going to watch C-span2 now. Davis being covered live!

[DEMActivist]

6. Of course you're right

They were trying to write a script for Arnie to use as Governor. Hey, it worked for many years with Reagan, why not Arnie too?

Arnie was just supposed to go out on the stump and play the role, stick with the script. They didn't teach him how to ad lib!!!!

[Art_from_Ark]

11. Ad libbing is hard to do when the only lines one knows are

"Die", "Kill", and "Hasta la vista, baby!"