Hurricane Ophelia: Latest Public Advisory and Discussion

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

**********************************************************************
000
WTNT31 KNHC 141442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
64 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...33.7 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
**********************************************************************
000
WTNT41 KNHC 141459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91
THAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50
NMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY
36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA
WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...
ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.7N 77.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W 75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS
36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
**********************************************************************