Final California Number Predictions

[jiacinto]

Ok. What do you all predict

[mlawson]

1. Ah-nuld by at least 10 points. Probably much more.

I suspect he polls low, as many repukes do. I fear this is going to be a huge landslide; the relevations about him won't matter to the type of person he attracts.

[asjr]

8. recall

I fear you may be right. It seems that the revelations about him have not fazed the ones who will vote for him. That says a lot right there. But I also hope that many people will just get fed up with the whole thing and vote no on the recall if for no other reason than to stop this madness.

[dkamin]

60. i don't understand

CA is a state that clearly has more democrats than republicans, either if you're talking about registered voters or the propensity of unregistered voters.

Arnold and McClintock ought to split the GOP vote, to some degree. Even if one assumes a not insignificant number of Democratic voters switch over to Arnold, you're still talking about a situation in which Bustamante should be the clear winner.

Assume 55% Dems, 45% Reps, and assume that McClintock and Schwarzenegger split the GOP vote 20%/25%. Assume further that Arnold pulls off a significant number of Dem voters, say 20% of Democrats (11% total). That's still no more than 36%. Since there's no other Democratic challenger, one would think that Bustamante ought to hit the 40+% mark.

I think the fundamental flaw in polling in the last 6 years has been that they tend to overpoll white males and underpoll minorities. Thus, they're correct when minorities don't turn out (i.e. 2002, when minority voters stayed home in the South), but they're wrong when minority voters do turn out (i.e. 2000, when the polls all had Gore losing the popular vote, many having him lose by a large amount).

Further, I think that Dems and independents who may have been leaning to Schwarzenegger are now giving serious thought to that, after these recent allegations, which he has NOT DENIED.

in a nutshell, if you believe the polls, you would have to believe that republicans represented a majority of the state. which is just not true in california. arnold may win, but he's got nothing close to the numbers (40%+???) that many polls are giving him.

my very strong prediction, which i'm about 90% sure of: Arnold does not get more than 35% of the second vote. There's virtually no scenario I can see that happening in. Turnout will be too high, and there are too many Dems in CA.

[pmbryant]

61. Many excellent points here

I recall that a day or two before the 2000 election, a poll was released that showed Bush only down by 1% in California. This got fairly wide press coverage (enough for me to notice it).

Of course Bush lost CA by double digits.

I also have an extremely hard time seeing Arnold getting more than 35% of the vote. I put him down for 30% in my predicition below.

--Peter

[mlawson]

71. NY has far more Dems than repukes, but

who is the governor there? MA also has a repuke governor. How did Ronnie win 49 states in 1984, when at least half the voters were Dems??

Answer: millions of voters are not ideologues, nor are they particularly political. They vote for the PERSON, as silly as many of US think that is. I hope you are right. But I suspect that Arnold has a huge reserve army of young, mostly uneducated white males, who are excited as hell to have The Terminator elected governor. WOO HOOO!!!

[haymaker]

72. Hahahahahaha

What a surprise. You are nothing if not predictable.

[Piperay]

2. Recall passes with

60-65% and arnie the groper beats Bustamante by 8-10% points. :-(

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

3. I disagree with you people

I too believe Ah-nuld will get in, but the numbers will be exceedingly narrow (like, 52% favor recall, Ahnuld beats Bustamante 35-33). Why, you ask? To make us feel even worse.

[ComerPerro]

4. What are your thoughts, Carlos?

I have a feeling Arnold will get his recall by a narrow margin, maybe 55%. And I think he will win with 35% of the vote

[jiacinto]

5. Don't know

It depends on who gets their people out.

[gristy]

6. How did your calls go today?

[jiacinto]

7. Most people weren't home

nt

[ParanoidPat]

26. Carlos, I was home all day.....

.....Bill Clinton called, (on tape!) Al Gore called, (tape too!) if I'd known you were going to call everyone in California who wasn't home, I would have gone out somewhere! :evilfrown:
Thanks for your efforts all the same. :)

[kentuck]

9. I think this election will turn all the polls on their heads...

I think Gray Davis will not be recalled. I think Arnold will get about the same number of votes as McClintock. I think Bustamante will defeat both of them but to no avail. I think the pollsters and networks will be asking, "what went wrong" with their predictions. I say this because I think half of the people that say they support Arnold will not vote. I don't know if WWF is on TV Tuesday evening or not but they will find some excuse, again, not to go to the polls...

[jiacinto]

10. I hope you're right

but I doubt it.

[mlawson]

11. I wonder how many Arnold supporters have never voted before?

Not necessarily because they are young, but just because they have never BOTHERED to?? Would these people know they have to register first? Would they think they can simply walk into ANY polling place and vote?? Will they even remember to vote??

This might be our ONLY hope.

[elperromagico]

17. Re: "I wonder how many Arnold supporters have never voted before?"

Why would Arnold supporters bother to vote? Their chosen leader, who claims to have sought American citizenship so he could vote, has rarely voted. They seem about as well-informed as him.

[Piperay]

12. I hope you're correct but

the repukes always manage to get their people out, they have a hardcore that they call the "peach pits" and they will literally get out "come hell or high water" especially when they smell the chance of victory. :argh: :-(

[Gingersnap]

15. but those peach pits weren't enough for Simon to win

I'm inclined to think that a lot of them will vote McClintock anyway, because they're religious right. Arnold's herd of supporters may include some peach pits, but I'd like to think that they are disenfranchised and won't bother to vote.

I hope so. :scared:

[Piperay]

19. That's true...

I wasn't thinking about Simon, the peach pits are the hardcore RWingers and hopefully they will give their vote to McClintock and Bustamante will manage to slip in.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. I'm not sure I believe in Arnold's high polling #s either

But people keep comparing this election to the one in Minnesota when Ventura became governor. The important difference is, Minnesota had same-day voter registration.

Turn-out will be a big factor here.

[Gingersnap]

16. you're right we can't assume

that the large numbers of people who go to his rallies will bother to vote. The fact that Arnold is a movie star changes everything--a lot of people probably show up so they can meet a celebrity and shake his hand. Whereas the people who go to Davis rallies are there for political reasons.

[proud patriot]

13. Recall looses n/t

[not systems]

18. Recall fails

51% No Davis Stays

Arnold vs Cruz vs Mclintock 33% 33% 20%


Republicans freak and demand recall. The number
of spoiled ballots is huge because first time nascar
dads can't figure out how to punch the card for Arnold.

Republicans demand recount in counties using touch
screens with no paper trail no recount is posable.

Appeals go to the SC who award election to Arnold in
special one time ruling.

The next day Arnold is cuffed and jailed for rape
of teen staffer from his bus tour.

[elperromagico]

20. Predictions

Predictions deleted. I just remembered why I lose at the racetrack.

[ozone_man]

21. Surprise result, recall loses.

Always the optimist.

[West Coast Democrat]

22. Davis has internal poll showing 49% For, 48% Against Recall

Not sure if this poll is any better than the others, but it is apparently a more recent poll.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20031005/ts_nm/politics_california_dc

[elperromagico]

24. 48-49?

Damned pesky 3%... they could throw it either way.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

27. I'm on my way out the door, but Ben Tulchin has helped in a number

of elections that were extremely close and is good as pollsters go. He worked on Harry Reid's campaign and Patty Murray's campaign as well as Tony Sanchez's comapaign in Texas. This leads me to believe Davis' poll is correct as this guy doesn't go looking for a warm enema when he polls.

He also worked with Davis on both gubernatorial campaigns and pulled it off.

[jeter]

44. WELL I THINK THIS POLL SAYS

That Bustamante will win regardless of whether Davis succeeds or not.

I'm beginning to think that Davis will lose (barely) 52%or51% to 48 or 49%.

But Bustamante will win the election: 36% to 30% for Arnold.

[gulliver]

23. Recall fails

Arnold must be squealing like a stuck pig for some reason. I also saw that poll that had the the recall at only 49-48 no. And big mo is on our side.

If recall goes through, Arnold wins by about 30-28.

[Noordam]

25. Touchscreens have Gropinator for Governor.

:(

[warrior1]

28. recall wins

but

Cruz gets 41 percent.

the groper gets 38

Mac gets 12.

I don't think the true GOP'er likes this guy anymore than we do. Your got a few apes screaming real loud is all.

Every GOPer I've talked to are saying No to the recall and can't stand arnold.

Well I guess will see.

[noiretextatique]

29. recall effort defeated by a slim margin...repubs cry foul...more drama n/t

[Capn Sunshine]

63. THAT'S my call too

narrow failure. Close enough for "foul" to be called.
Courts Courts and courts. RW fodder for years.

Arnold is sued in the process.Several times.

Maria leaves after a polite six month interlude.

Tom Mc Clintock runs against Barbara Boxer.Loses.BIG.

Economically, nothing improves until Jan 1, 2005. Well, it starts in November 2004 when the democratic candidate wins by almost 15%.

no one say another word. I want to enjoy this reverie.

[Blitz]

30. Prediction:

Recall passes 54% to 46%

Arnold: 44%

Bustamante: 31%

McClintock: 14%

Camejo: 3%

Field: 8%

Prop 54: fails 52% to 48%

Prop 53 passes 56% to 44%

Further prediction: No serious legal challenges to the results materialize and no follow-up recall occurs.

You heard it here first.

[Jack Rabbit]

31. Recall is too close to call

Replacement vote: Arnold by less than the polls are showing.

It's going to be a squeaker.

Sorry. I knows it's not what everyone wants to hear. Not even me.

[KFC]

32. McClintock supporters will switch to Arnold

They may say they support Mac in pre-election polls, but IMHO, at least 1/2 will switch to Arnold for practical purposes when they are in the booth. Why waste a vote on an obvious loser? But Arnold obviously loses some independent women voters.

Davis is just too hated to prevail.

Recall: yes 57%
Arnold: 40%
Bustamante: 35%
McClintock: 10%

[Cush]

37. If McClintock were smart

and really cared, he'ed tell his supporters to vote NO on the recall

[Loyal]

33. Honestly?

I think that the recall will succeed, 58%-42%.

I believe that Ahhnold will win the 2nd part with 39% of the vote.\

I HOPE, HOPE, HOPE THAT I'M MISTAKEN!

[CMT]

34. ok, I'll take a wild guess

The Recall passes--53-47 percent.

But...buyoed by an unexpectedly high Democratic turnout and the GOP vote splitting between Arnold and McClintock--Cruz Bustamante wins on the second ballot. McClintock will do better than expected as some Republicans and Independents who want a recall but also are wary of the allegations against Arnold vote for McClintock in the last minute.

Cruz gets about 40%, Arnold about 35% and McClintock about 19%. The other 6% goes to assorted other candidates on the ballot.

[Loyal]

35. I really hope Cruz wins,

since it appears that the recall will succeed. Eww, Ahnold. :scared:

[Cush]

36. Arnold wins

...with absentee ballots playing a role

[Le Taz Hot]

38. Oy!

So much for sending positive thoughts out for California!

OOOOHHHHHHHMMMMMMMMM

[FDRLincoln]

39. my prediction

Recall passes 53-47.

Arnold barely beats Bustamente 36-35, with McClintock scoring a surprising 21. Other 8 go to novelty candidates, Greens, etc.

Arnold gets into the governors mansion by the skin of his teeth. He starts proposing massive budget cuts and the legislature tells him to screw off. California sinks into an even bigger mass of ludicracy.

Fortunately I live in Kansas. I never thought I would ever get to write that.

[knight_of_the_star]

40. Recall fails

By 51% thanks to heavy dem mobilization in the last week prior to the recall. Republican Party in Cali calls for another recall, but due to their recent defeat the party is shunted to one side and fades into the blissful realm of irrelevance.

[ReadTomPaine]

41. Davis will stay in office, barring anything fishy or bad weather.

Turnout is the key to this, as you have already alluded to.

[Thelakedoctor]

42. Recall fails, Arnold gets most votes

So it doesn't matter. I predict Davis still retains job.

[bluestateguy]

43. mine

YES 55%
NO 45%

Schwarzenegger 34%
Bustamante 32%
McClintock 14%
Camejo 5%
Others 15%

[goobergunch]

45. My rather depressed prediction:

Should Gray Davis be recalled (removed) as Governor of California?

58% YES, 42% NO

Who should become Governor if Gray Davis is recalled?

Schwartznegger 40%
Bustamante 32%
McClintock 18%
Scattering 10%

[Rainbows]

46. Recall unfortunately suceeds

Republicans will show up at the polls, absentee ballots posted early will heavily support the recall. The biggest factor though is most democratic voters are uninformed, have little conviction, and will desert common sense and exercize their frustration with politics by throwing a politico out. My prediction is the terminator who has acquired his fame by making violence look cool and killing neat, will become our new role model in expression of 'direct democracy', run a foul.

[cmd]

47. Recall fails.

[Ediacara]

48. too close to call

until next week.

On election night, it'll look as though the recall fails by about 45-55.

On question 2, who will be Davis' replacement, Bustamante will beat Arnold by a slim margin.

But the absentees...... could eek out a slim yes on the recall, and an Arnold win of 5 points.

What should be clear to everyone however is that California, had they known about the extent of the Gropenator's misdeads before the absentee ballots were sent out, would not elect him to replace Davis.

[HFishbine]

50. Ding!

We have a winner.

[juajen]

65. Don't know how widely this info was disseminated, but

is it possible that a lot of the absentee ballots will be in dems favor since a. ballots have a paper trail and can be recounted? This was discussed on DU, but don't know how it might or might not have played in "Caleefornia."

[TSIAS]

49. My picks

First, I think this race is about turnout. I think we can get enough minorities and union members to the polls to pull through. The latest Arnold scandals may work to depress his turnout or swing it to McClintock.

My prediction on the Recall is as follows:

YES- 49
No- 51

On the replacement:

Bustamante- 38
Schwarzenegger- 35
McClintock- 20
Camejo-4
The rest- 3

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think we have a chance on one or both of the ballots tomorrow.

[pmbryant]

51. Ok, I'll re-post my prediction here

I think (hope) the recall will do worse than you predict:

YES 47
NO 53

I'll follow your lead on the replacement, though I believe (hope) it will be irrelevant:

Cruz 38
Arnold 30
McC 20
Camejo 5
Other 7



--Peter

[dkamin]

53. Momentum

i think the recall fails. momentum is going to davis, and the latest arnold revelations have given many of his supporters pause/

californians don't like nazis and they don't like sexual harassers. even southern californians. i wouldn't be surprised if arnold ends up with fewer votes than mcclintock, who i predict will surge. arnold is dropping like a stone, and this will raise questions about what might have happened if arnold had dropped out once these allegations hit.

"coming clean" about being a criminal sexual harasser and adolf admirer is not really a very good answer to what are very very serious allegations.

Yes on recall: 48
No on recall: 52

Replacement:
Bustamante: 35
McClintock: 33
Schwarzenegger: 28%
Camejo: 2%
Rest: 2%

[GumboYaYa]

52. The Mo is against recall now.

Momentum the day before the election is key. Normally it predicts the break of the undecideds. With Davis making ground at the right time, I predict that recall loses with only 45% support.

Arnold may win the second question but only with a slim margin of victory over Cruz. I say 28% Arnie, 26% Cruz, 18% McClintock.

[Freddie Stubbs]

57. The problem is the absentee ballots

A huge number of people have already voted by absentee ballot. These people have voted BEFORE the allegations against Arnold came out.

[LightTheMatch]

54. Recall Fails narrowly

YES 48%
NO 52%

Arnold 36%
Bustamante 34%
McClintock 15%

[LibDemAlways]

55. Davis will pull this out in a squeaker -

52 - 48%. It won't matter but Bustamante will probably get 35% to Arnold's 32% and 20% for McClintock. This assumes all votes are fairly and accurately counted.

[slackmaster]

56. Davis ousted by between 1% and 2%

Arnold Schwarzenegger the clear winner on Question #2.

Plenty of opportunity for recounts, challenges, accusations, counter-accusations, etc.

[Uzybone]

58. Recall fails

by 51-49.....very very close.

[Cooley Hurd]

59. Recall will fail - Davis keeps his job...

By a narrow margin, but Californians are much too bright to be fooled by the whole recall idea.

[slackmaster]

62. Cruz Bustamante will still be the Lt. Governor at end of the day

How's that for a relatively safe prediction?

[Emboldened Chimp]

64. Recall gets narrowly defeated

But Arnie gets the most votes. He immediately ponies up a few million bucks to pay for more signatures and another recall appears on the horizon. However, the Enron/Arnie story breaks wide open and Arnie backs off with tail between his legs. With his political aspirations gone and film career dead, Arnie retires to a lavish, grope-filled lifestyle. Meanwhile, all the women Arnie has ever groped join together and file a class-action lawsuit, which bankrupts the once wealthy star. He makes one last attempt at stardom--a dramatic turn he feels is his Oscar performance, but many feel is weak and over sentimental. It's also a box office flop. With suitcase in hand and tits to his knees, Arnie returns to Austria a broken man. The end.

[rustydad]

66. prediction

I have no idea on the numbers except to say the polls may be very bad on this election. I will predict that terminator may, if elected, be the straw that breaks the worlds faith in the dollar because as California goes so goes the country. If I had big investments in the USofA I would cash out immediately. If our big loaners overseas make a run on the dollar bank all hell is going to happen. Hang on to something very tightly. Bob

[cally]

67. Now is not the time for dismal predictions

I think we will win if we get out the vote. How do you do that without optimism? We can win. It's close enough to matter who turns out to vote so don't discourage voters.

[inthecorneroverhere]

70. Turnout is the bottom line

NPR is reporting a strong dip in last minute polls for the recall (first part of the ballot). Better news for Dems. Too bad Davis went mushy-*puke-appeaser on the energy deregulation issue. Lots of economic liberals are mad-as-h*ll about energy deregulation, which is a Republican agenda, not a Democratic one.

Everybody, 'drag your friends to the polls.' If you're in Cally and have apathetic, 'it doesn't matter' Dem-leaning friends, DRIVE them to the polls and be pushy that these people vote, even if they just punch NO.

I'm 2,700 miles away now, although born/raised in Cally. Wish I could help -

:kick:

[4_Legs_Good]

68. Gropy McNazi gets the largest share

...but the Recall fails by 1-2%

So I'll say

51.4% NO on Recall
48.6% YES on Recall

40% Gropy McNazi
33% Cruz Bustamante
18% Tom McClintock
6% Peter Comejo
3% Other

Proposition 53 Passes by 61%
Proposition 54 Passes by 54%

Pretty sad all around (minus the no on Recall)

david

Kucinich 2004

[inthecorneroverhere]

69. very close! Dems you gotta turn out!!!

NPR is reporting that 'NO' is substantially up in the latest polls and that Pumpin' Iron is down,

So, here are my numbers:

NO (Davis) - 50.8%
YES - 49.1%
spoiled/chads etc. 0.1%

Ahnold - 31%
Cruz - 25%
McClintock - 15%
others - 20%
no vote in 2nd part - 8% (mostly people who want Davis to stay)
spoiled/chads etc. 0.6%

:kick: