***Aurora Potential HIGH tonight!!!****

[bvar22]

Latest Alert: September 14 1555 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected

Last Advisory Bulletin MORE MAJOR SOLAR FLARES EXPECTED FROM ACTIVE NOAA REGION 808 ,
issued September 14, 2005



AURORA ALERT!
A coronal mass ejection (CME) is racing toward Earth and it could spark a severe geomagnetic storm when it arrives--perhaps tonight (Sept. 14th and 15th). People everywhere should be alert for auroras.



If this incoming CME does hit Earth's magnetic field as hard as forecasters expect, auroras could appear in places where they are seldom seen: California, Arizona, Texas and elsewhere. Stay tuned for updates.

http://spaceweather.com/


Paul L Meisel,
Ward County, North Dakota
Sept. 11, 2005

[Catherine Vincent]

1. Should I get out my duct tape and plastic sheeting?

[Mr_Spock]

2. I love this shit!!

I mean, stuff :D

I hope I get to see some of this at some point...

[Sanity Claws]

3. Any idea of the time this evening?

I hope it's not in the middle of the night. I need my beauty sleep.

[EDT]

4. Here's another cool link with "live" Aurora weather radar

www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

[bertha katzenengel]

5. Is there any way to tell if there WILL be auroras that I can see?

Can they predict if the light will get to a certain latitude, f'rinstance?

[wuushew]

6. yes

http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.php

[bvar22]

9. ALL Aurora Forecasts are qualified....

...with "MIGHT", "POSSIBLE", "CONDITIONS GOOD".
The forecasters cannot predict when Auroras will DEFINITELY be visible and for which areas.

They CAN tell you with 100% certainty when Auroras will NOT appear.
Sometimes the conditions are PERFECT, but NO SHOW.
The BEST you can do is go outside around mid-night, and LOOK UP. :)

(from OP)"If this incoming CME does hit Earth's magnetic field as hard as forecasters expect, auroras could appear in places where they are seldom seen: California, Arizona, Texas and elsewhere."


Here is a link to a network where observers log in Aurora Sightings.
You can check here to see if there are any reports from your Latitude.

http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php

[bananas]

10. it's easy

they end just before you go to look,
and start right after you go inside.

In this chart, the green line is predicted, the blus line is observed by USAF. The higher it goes, the brighter the auroras are.
http://sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.html


There is a mailing list which predicts when and where it will be visible, but sometimes they are way off.
http://solar.spacew.com/pipermail/astroalerts/2005-September/000021.html

<snip>

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 11:45 UTC on 14 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14-16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 50, 30, 20 (14 - 17 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.

<snip>

More information about the Astroalerts mailing list
http://solar.spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/astroalerts

[giant_robot]

7. Damn! There's cloud cover in my neck of the woods tonight! n/t

[cynatnite]

8. Wow, the blue one is really pretty :)

Thanks for the heads up. I forgot about it.

[kikiek]

11. Been having problems getting satellite internet connection.

Maybe that is why. I will give it a week before I call them out to fix it.

[bananas]

13. You should call them

It probably isn't the solar flares.

[Zynx]

12. First time I ever saw one I thought it was aliens.

[SlowDownFast]

14. kicking for some Northern Lights.

I should prolly seem 'em, I'm in Northern Michigan on Lake Superior - they show up once in awhile anyhow.

I'm gonna stay up tonite hoping and watching for a show.

[applegrove]

15. Will explain why the blogs all go down.

in the "Arctics"!

[SlowDownFast]

16. kick.

[bvar22]

17. 1AM here in Minnesota.

so far, a non-event.
Maybe later.

[bvar22]

18. Last night was a fizzle, but TONIGHT looks GREAT!!!

If this keeps up, we are in for a show!!
This pic auto-updates, the red arrow points to the Sun.
If you area is under the bright orange or red, look up!

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

21. I receive AOL sky alerts and it said that anyone from 40N Latitude and

northwards should be able to see them. Best viewing time about 12AM (ET?) and I keep going out my door, and so far nada. BTW ...I'm in NY.

[bvar22]

19. GET YOURS while Supplies Last!!!!

I have a few special "Coronal Ejection Brain Protectors" on hand!!!
Don't let Sub Atomic Particles perforate YOUR brain.
The cost is minimal compared to the damage that these little atomic bullets can cause to your brain!!!

If you are too cheap to protect your brain, think of YOUR CHILDREN!!!
The cost is minimal compared to the protection of YOUR CHILD's BRAIN!!
ONLY $12,000 each!

PM me to get yours NOW!

[Beam Me Up]

20. What are my fashion options?