Something has changed in Iraq.

[understandinglife]

Look at this chart:

http://icasualties.org/oif/USChart.aspx

Something has changed.

100s of Iraqi's may be dying, but the rate of American casualties has dropped substantially.


Peace.

[fooj]

1. I read somewhere that they had blocked off a certain part of Baghdad.

No press. No anybody. I'll look for it.

Peace.

[Trevelyan]

13. U.S. and Iraqi forces, traveling in Humvees

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/09/10/iraq.main/**

Saturday, September 10, 2005; Posted: 1:44 p.m. EDT (17:44 GMT)
A U.S. soldier runs for cover as Iraqi soliders provide security in Tal Afar.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- U.S. and Iraqi soldiers have been going from house to house in the restive northern city of Tal Afar to ferret out militants in an operation that will continue until it is "freed from insurgents," military officials said.

U.S. and Iraqi forces, traveling in Humvees and Bradley Fighting Vehicles, on Saturday swept through one-third of the city, where U.S. and Iraqi forces have been sparring with militants in recent weeks.

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, in a printed announcement and later in remarks at a news conference, said he ordered the offensive "to remove all remaining terrorist elements from the city of Tel Afar" and stressed that residents and leaders there who are fed up with insurgents "asked us to intervene."....
~~~~~
Tal Afar Residents Send Out SOS

Injured civilians find no health care.

MOSUL, September 9, 2005 (IslamOnline.net) – Residents of the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar has sent out an SOS to the international community to interfere with the US occupation authorities to stop their continuing bombing of their devastated city, revealing a terrible humanitarian situation.

"US and Iraqi forces are still besieging Tal Afar amid ongoing intensive bombing, ordering residents of Hassan Kawi and Sarray neighborhoods to evacuate immediately," a Tal Afar tribal leader told IOL over the phone Thursday, September 8.

[understandinglife]

30. Very interested in seeing that info. Thank you.

Peace.

[fooj]

32. Here's one of them.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/14/content_3489968.htm

peace.

[fooj]

35. Here's another.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/05/content_3446128.htm

Peace.

[fooj]

49. This is another indicator, IMO.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4783351

peace.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Are we not dying or just not counted?

------------------------------------------------------
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4736062

Save the gulf, then save the nation! http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/electionreform.htm

[HereSince1628]

3. I noticed this too, for days I expected the 2000 number

Many of the US casualties have been due to roadside bombs, did the military cut back on patrols, or are they just no longer reporting the deaths because it will break 2000?

[Sydnie]

11. They are obviously trying to protect blivet**'s poll numbers just

like the restraint on the military just before the election ... then WHAM - major offensive within days. His numbers are so low right now, this would put them in the toilet so far that no "bullhorn moment" could ever get them back to the surface.

[SoCalDem]

4. American forces are hunkered down in more secure areas

and the iraqis who "deal" with the Americans are the primary targets these days..

[ClintonTyree]

24. Bingo..........

Hunkered down, as you say, or hiding and and letting things take their own course. The situation is pretty grim there I think, they've run out of money and ideas (if they ever DID have any ideas) and are treading water until something breaks one way or another.
Pretty sad actually, they should bring home all of the Troops, now. Who wants to be the last to die for bush's colossal fuck-up?

[Jack from Charlotte]

54. The hunkered down syndrome is how you tell....."We Lost." In Nam...

the last several years, officers told their guys the objective was to... bring everyone home alive. And they just hunkered down. Tried not to venture out tried to stay out of any fighting.

That's whats happening over in Vietraq these days.

[cantstandbush]

25. And dropping bombs from afar or launching missiles from afar.

We just aren't that good at fighting insurgents otherwise.

[newyawker99]

51. Hi cantstandbush!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Freedomfried]

37. Its called "bunker mentality"

[Autonomy]

5. We've stopped trying. We're now there to lose the war

with minimal US casualties.

[understandinglife]

8. If that were the case why would Rumsfeld have deployed two 82nd ...

... Airborne battalions?


Peace.

[Autonomy]

23. Because it's a limited scope deployment

120 days, supposedly. They want to secure the elections and consitutional process, then get the hell out. These battalions won't be going on the offensive.

"WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered two battalions from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to deploy to Iraq for 120 days to beef up security for the elections, the Pentagon said."

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050824/wl_mideast_afp/usiraqmilitaryforces_050824222002

[understandinglife]

27. That's what they say, I agree. That gives me no assurance of anything.

Peace.

[Autonomy]

33. This seems to be one of those cases

where what they say fits the evidence. A rarity for sure.

[Trevelyan]

6. Suicide bomber in Baghdad targets day workers

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9332851/~~

man is treated in Baghdad's Yarmouk hospital Thursday for wounds sustained in one of the attacks in the capital.

• Deadly day
Sept. 14: More than a dozen highly coordinated bombings ripped through Baghdad, killing at least 160 people and wounding hundreds.

NBC's Richard Engel reports.
Nightly News

Related Stories | What's this?
• Suicide bomber in Baghdad targets day workers; at least 88 killed, 227 wounded
• Large blast heard in Baghdad - witnesses
• 5 GIs killed in Baghdad bombings
• Series of bombings kill more than 150 in Iraq
• Huge car bomb explodes in Baghdad

Updated: 11:52 a.m. ET Sept. 15, 2005
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Two suicide car bombers struck within a minute of each other just a half mile apart in south Baghdad on Thursday, killing at least seven policemen and raising the day’s bombing death toll in the capital to at least 31, police said.Earlier Thursday, a suicide car bombing killed 16 policemen and five civilians in the same neighborhood, signaling a new round of violence one day after residents suffered through Baghdad’s bloodiest day of the war.

At least 160 were killed and 570 wounded Wednesday in more than a dozen bombings, for which the terror group Al-Qaida in Iraq claimed responsibility. Many of the victims were day laborers lured by a suicide attacker posing as an employer. There was no immediate claim for the Thursday bombings....

In what was believed to be a new tactic, the bomber set off the explosive after calling construction and other workers to his small van and enticing them with promises of employment, a witness said. At least 112 people were killed and more than 200 were wounded,according to Health Ministry officials.

If proven that any of (Iraq’s) national guards, police or army are agents of the Crusaders, they will be killed and his house will demolished or burned — after evacuating all women and children — as a punishment,” the speaker said.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. All we are protecting is the oil

and we've made sure that the people are well equipped enough to kill each other. Sit back and wait for them to kill each all off and then the place is ours, piece of cake.

[understandinglife]

12. ... and the water and the air space, as to what we control.

Also, I agree with your assessment as to what we'll watch the Iraqi's do to each other.

However, I also think we may be about to leverage our strategic assets in the region and the precipitous drop in casualties is because of force deployment changes and preparations.

Oh, and I do think the counting of our military casualties has been and remains accurate. As to how many Blackwater mercs have been killed -- who knows; though I suspect quite few.


Peace.

[DoYouEverWonder]

22. Actually, if we just left the Iraqis alone

and really made an effort to clean the place of arms and explosives they could probably live in peace again. But BushCo doesn't want that. They want them to all kill each other. Just like in New Orleans. That was what they tried to do there but fortunately it didn't work.

[Done]

9. A change in tactics?

by the insurgents to turn the people of Iraq even more against the occupation?

[jzodda]

41. Change of Tactics for sure

But its somewhat mystifying because the Shites are not getting angrier at us overall but are becoming more and more angry at the Sunnis. Those Sunnis keep this up and they will be in trouble once we leave thats for sure.

[Roland99]

10. Because more Iraqi police/guardsmen *are* at the forefront

But, there have still been four months this year that have averaged almost 3 dead/day...and three of the last four have been that bad.

[Qibing Zero]

14. Well, more died last month than in any of the previous six months,

but this month is down a bit, yes.

My guesses:

- A lot of the problems are in baghdad, and we have the sealed off green zone to hide in there.
- Maybe less offensives going on at the moment?
- Many, many of the Iraqi deaths are police and new military, who are 'stepping up'

[crispini]

15. I don't see how you get that from that chart.

Over the last four months: 80, 78, 54, 85.

September's only half over yet so it can't be counted.

Also, one month does not a trend make.

[Seen the light]

19. Exactly, just look at February '04

[understandinglife]

26. I think something changed in late August ...

... the nature of encounters and the activity on the Syrian border have been intense and yet the overall rate of American fatalities has decreased and more troops have been deployed to the region ... just wanted to see how folk here might view that.


Peace.

[crispini]

34. I disagree with your basic assumption:

"overall rate of American fatalities has decreased."

Jun-05 78
Jul-05 54
Aug-05 85

If anything, looks higher to me than the same three-month period last year.

Jun-04 42
Jul-04 54
Aug-04 66

[understandinglife]

45. I am only referring to the first 15 days of Sept compared to the past ...

... several months (as far back as March '05). I'm not arguing that the low count in the first 15 days heralds a permanent downward trend.

I'm just wondering, particularly given the heavy engagements we supposedly have been having along the Syrian border without a significant up-tick in troop casualties, if the bulk of our troops might be being deployed differently than in the past 5 months in preparation for a new event.

I kept the OP sketchy to afford as much speculation as possible.

My bias is we are about to see those hardened and expanded air bases in Iraq used.


Peace.

[crispini]

47. It's statistically invalid

to compare half a month to a whole month.

And I thought the Syrian stuff was mostly air strikes? :shrug: Which would explain the lack of casualties there.

[understandinglife]

48. I know statistics quite well, thank you. That is not the point.

And, the actions along the boarder and in Tall Afar involved troops, not just planes.

Task Force Freedom detained 78 suspected terrorists during operations in Tall Afar Sept. 12 as Operation Restoring Rights continued.

Soldiers from 2nd Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment detained 57 individuals suspected of terrorist activity during two operations.

Soldiers from 1st Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment detained 15 terror suspects during a cordon and search operation.

Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, 325th Airborne Infantry Regiment detained four suspected terrorists.

Soldiers from 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment also detained two individuals suspected of terrorist activity while patrolling.

Suspects are in custody with no MNF injuries reported.

Peace.

[crispini]

50. So, you think it means something...

what do you think it means?

[understandinglife]

52. I am wondering if this is a flicker, a hint of Bush and the neoconsters ..

... shifting to phase 2.

U.S. Deploys Slide Show to Press Case Against Iran

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, September 14, 2005; Page A07

UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 13 -- With an hour-long slide show that blends satellite imagery with disquieting assumptions about Iran's nuclear energy program, Bush administration officials have been trying to convince allies that Tehran is on a fast track toward nuclear weapons.

The PowerPoint briefing, titled "A History of Concealment and Deception," has been presented to diplomats from more than a dozen countries. Several diplomats said the presentation, intended to win allies for increasing pressure on the Iranian government, dismisses ambiguities in the evidence about Iran's intentions and omits alternative explanations under debate among intelligence analysts.

Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/13/AR2005091301837.html

Iran Ready to Share Nuclear TechnologyIran's

President Says His Nation Is Willing to Share Nuclear Technology With Muslim Countries

By EDITH M. LEDERER Associated Press Writer
The Associated Press

UNITED NATIONS Sep 15, 2005 — Iran is willing to provide nuclear technology to other Muslim states, Iran's hard-line president said Thursday, notching up his rhetoric as his regime rejects international pressure to cut back its atomic program.

<clip>

Iran has said it is determined to continue processing uranium so its nuclear program can be self-sufficient in meeting its own reactor fuel needs. It insists the program is intended only to generate electricity and denies having any ambition to build atomic weapons.

Link:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1129811

WMD threat could spark American nuclear strike

From Giles Whittell in Washington

A PRESIDENT of the United States would be able to launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes against enemies planning to use weapons of mass destruction under a revised “nuclear operations” doctrine to be signed in the next few weeks.

In a significant shift after half a century of nuclear deterrence based on the threat of massive retaliation, the revised doctrine would allow pre-emptive strikes against states or terror groups, and to destroy chemical and biological weapons stockpiles.

<clip>

Referring repeatedly to “non-state actors” — parlance for terrorists — the doctrine is designed to arm the White House and US forces with a new range of threats and sanctions to counter the situation of threatened nuclear attack by al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates.

The document’s key phrase appears in a list of pre-emptive nuclear strike scenarios, the first of which is against an enemy using “or intending to use WMD”. Elsewhere it states that “deterrence of potential adversary WMD use requires the potential adversary leadership to believe that the United States has both the ability and will to pre-empt or retaliate promptly with responses that are credible and effective”.

Link:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1776250,00.html

I have no reason to doubt that Bush and the neoconsters will move to consolidate control of middle eastern oil and I have no doubt Bush will use whatever force necessary to achieve the goal.

The fact that they are presenting a power-point slide show to diplomats knowing the information is not conclusive also indicates that, as with Iraq, they'll go through the motions largely to make it clear that folk might want to be extracting their citizens from embassies and other installations. Let's face it, they all knew the Niger documents were forged before March 19, 2003 and none of them stopped Bush. And, they know that Bush's objectives are control of oil, natural gas and air space and nothing else.

We all know he abuses power and we have known since the Spring that his neoconster buddies at the Pentagon drafted a revised Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations that changes the core rules for when and how the "president" can select to use nuclear weapons.

It's not as if they have avoided broadcasting their intentions to folk who pay way more attention to what our government is doing and is preparing to do than most of our fellow citizens. As the Times Online article notes, the draft document was present at the DoD website until after the WaPo article appeared.

Those bases in Iraq that have had billions of dollars expended on their preparation are ready to be used.

Since late August, I just have not seen the kinds of reports of insurgent - US actions that were prevalent until then. So, I thought I'd see how others would respond to a question about the number of casualties since Sept 1.

Obviously I don't want it to be true that we are about to witness Bush launch a preemptive nuclear strike on Iran, but they pose too big an impediment to his neocon, resource control agenda. I know enough about the Bush family and the neocons to know that once they got the chance to attempt to control the world's resources they would do it and they would not hesitate to use any form of weapon system to eliminate resistance knowing full well that the few nations that possessed substantial retaliatory assets wouldn't use them because of MAD.

In other words, what was to be the ultimate deterrence to the use of nuclear weapons, MAD, actually enables a state with a massive nuclear capability to be preemptive and have very little concern of nuclear retaliation, i.e., I doubt that Russia, China, or/and India would attack the US if Bush smashes Iran's command and control infrastructure and their nuclear facilities.

The mullahs should be spending all their oil dollars on non-nuclear alternative energy sources because for each minute they have any form of nuclear program they are providing Georgie boy with the excuse he needs to steal their oil - and he's about to do just that, imho.

Peace.

[crispini]

42. And in August

the number of fatalities were still 85. That's pretty high overall in that chart.

[Gary173]

16. In Vietnam,

and yes I was there, when the troops were willing to refuse missions which were meant to put a feather in some officers cap for no significant gain, the casulties declined, in some cases dramatically.

[KharmaTrain]

31. This Is Different Type Of Warfare

Except for Tet, Vietnam was a rural war, this one is very urban. While both involve demoralizing and bleeding the enemy, the ways it's done are very different.

Iraq is more on the Afghanistan mold. Our military isn't being targeted en mass by thousands of troops, but picked at in opportune ways by small pockets of an unseen enemy.

You rarely heard of a North Vietnese or VC massacre in a town during the war...they needed those villages and hamlets, just like the current insurgents do, as staging grounds. The U.S. has learned it can't openly freely...one of the rear lessons they so far have retained from Vietnam, but the insurgent tactics are far different.

Today's soldier is a lot smarter and deployed differently than in Vietnam. Remember, at the height that war, there was over 500,000 troops on the ground. This is a war of attrition similar to what the Soviets felt in Afghanistan...where the locals became targets in an effort to draw the Soviets out and bleed them slowly but surely. It demoralized the military in a way we're starting to see with our own troops. Fortunately we haven't had the 500,000 troops involved.

Right now it appears the power struggle between the American-financed Iraq vs. the rest of the country. Without our military muscle these people will be slaughtered...thus the need to stay and the more of our troops will be bled dry as we're caught in the cross fire.

[MsTryska]

17. yes....it's Officially a Civil War.....

heard jerry say that Zarqawi? Zawahiri? the interime president guy, said Iraq was officially in a Civil War and Sunnis are encouraged to take up arms agaisnt Shias.

[brettdale]

18. disagree

Yes this month has been light, even though its only half way through, unfortunately a light month of US Casualties, is normally followed by a heavy month of casualties.

[meganmonkey]

20. If it stays that way for 3 months or more, I will agree with you

But if you look back through the months there are a few with very low numbers, followed by some with very high numbers...

:shrug:

[understandinglife]

28. I'm pointing to a particular change in pattern as perhaps an indicator ...

... of preparation for something.


Peace.

[meganmonkey]

39. Well, they recently announced that there would be major offensives

on a couple different smallish cities soon, I don't remember what they were called. It could be related to that. Some of the lower months in the past were right before major offenses in Fallujah which resulted in large numbers of US casualties.

[manic expression]

21. It happens every once in awhile...

attacks on US troops slow down, but it is always followed by renewed assaults. Actually, the attacks after the lulls are usually much more ferocious than before.

[tx_dem41]

29. Isn't this good news?

Some almost sound disappointed.

[understandinglife]

36. Of course it is good news. The reason for the post is to induce ...

... some discussion about why it might be happening; what other actions are we aware that might reveal preparation for a new event.

When you think of how intense the activity has been along the Syrian boarder -- to the limited extent we have news of those actions -- and then note the drop in casualties it seems as if the way we are exposing our troops has changed.

I just wonder if this heralds something or is merely the cyclical fluctuation we've seen since the occupation began.


Peace.

[rodeodance]

43. of course it is good news when US troops do not die needlessly. Wish

it could be said of those new Iraqi troops and the civilians also.

[frictionlessO]

44. please don't do that...

You know most Americans and all honest DU'ers are not into being happy when more people die. Be they Americans or Iraqis...

Remember that without tonal inflection sometimes its easy to infer something different from a posters intended point.

[jzodda]

38. Few Reasons

First we are actually more and more letting Iraqi troops take leading roles in infantry actions. So theres less chances for our guys to bite it that way-I should clarify that we are now relying mostly on Pesh Merga and Shite Troops in mostly Sunni areas. Set up to fight their traditional enemies the Iraqi troops are doing much better it would seem. This of course brings the situation closer to civil war


2nd the insurgents have grown smart. They are going after soft targets where their own losses are much smaller. For whatever reason they have decided to start a war of Islamic sects. 85% of the Islamic world is Sunni so I guess they feel making war on the Shiites will provide them with never-ending recruits. Every time they tried to attack us they got whacked hard, so now they go after civilians. Cowardly for sure, and probably inneffective in the long run. All it will do is make the 60% majority population more and more angry. What will the Shittes do to the Sunnis once we leave? I wonder

[frictionlessO]

40. It's been noticed in other places as well.

However it is a cyclical thing and a chaotic one at that. A combination of factors is most likely playing into the current down cycle (important to note that it only takes one IED hitting the right kind of vehicle to launch the average way up). Other than the serious Tal Afar offensive in the past couple of weeks it appears that our military has been told to stand down and make even less of a presence even if some situations would normally have been taken on by us a month ago now we leave the Iraqis to sink or swim in many of those cases. Their army and police force is still woefully in need of training and equipment and most importantly effective leaders (we killed a bunch of those when we rolled in but the insurgency has been extremely effective in neutralizing the rest).

The insurgency itself has probably shifted resources towards preps for all out civil war, and has indeed gotten really effective at taking out leaders military and civilian.

To differentiate though it should be noted as well that AQ in Iraq is supposedly preparing for something big. Though thats hard to tell as Zarqawi seems to be either a fabricatory legend assumed or entirely made up by a foreign I.S. or he is the luckiest bad guy in the history of the entire region.

Having said all that I'd like to say that this rate of casualties needs to be maintained for another two months or so to get a trend out of it.

That's my lame ass anal-ysis FWIW.
:hi:

[understandinglife]

46. Agree with your analysis. My focus is on what the past ~ 16 days ...

.... may indicate. Also, please see comment # 45. And, you may want to check this reasonable summary article if you haven't already read it:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GI14Aa01.html

I'm concerned.


Peace.

[Cocoa]

53. it looks constant or even increasing to me

:shrug:

[TallahasseeGrannie]

55. Thank you so much

for finding this graphic. I had wondered recently because it seemed there wasn't much reporting of US fatalities.

I believe it is probably just a blip. It won't stop until we leave.