China's Economy Roars Ahead--Bearing down on Western economies....BIG TIME

[Gloria]

Heard a bit of this this AM on BBC shortwave...here's the article....


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4252130.stm

China's economy roars ahead
Analysis
By Quentin Sommerville
BBC Shanghai Correspondent


Chinese industry could soon overtake the West, the OECD says

Most of the world is getting used to the fact that China is now a major player on the economic stage - it has witnessed the most rapid industrialisation in history, but is this phenomenal rate of change sustainable?

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development seems to think so.

The OECD's first report on the Chinese economy says China has recorded annual growth of 9.5%, every year for the past 20 years. And that growth will continue, for some time to come.

The economies of Britain, France and Italy could all be leapfrogged by China in the next five years.

At the same time, China could overtake the US and Germany to become the world's largest exporter.

Business boost

This rapid transformation was brought about by the 25-year liberalisation process managed by the Communist Party. The state may have set the ball rolling, but it is the private sector - China's millions of entrepreneurs - that have built this economic miracle.

The OECD notes that more than half the national income is generated privately now, and it is the private sector that is creating the majority of the new jobs in China.

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[NewJeffCT]

1. it's almost inevitable

it's almost inevitable that within 2-3 decades that China's overall economy will surpass our economy in terms of total GDP. Will they ever attain our now falling standard of living? That's another story, as 1.3 billion people is a HUGE number to account for, and a good 800 million of them are still very poor. However, it's a huge change from 25 years ago (when they first started introducing capitalism) when virtually the whole country was in poverty.

[neuvocat]

2. I figured we had 5-10 years or so left

but I guess after the Iraq war and Katrina, we're no longer a superpower. It may however take 5-10 years for that realization to sink in for some people.

[NewJeffCT]

10. On a GDP per capita basis

China is still way behind the US, western Europe, Japan, etc. I think the US is like $27,000 per capita, while China is a little over $1,000... However, their massive population has allows them to be ahead of most of Europe in total GDP. However, the Chinese economy will still have to double a few more times to come close to the US overall because the population of the US is much greater than any single country in Europe.

[neuvocat]

11. Question for you then:

Doesn't China have a number of U.S. Treasury bills that they could cash in at any minute? I may be wrong. Thanks.

[maxsolomon]

3. what happens when we can no longer buy their plastic crap?

are they able to sustain their economy on internal consumption, or do they falter as we falter?

[Double T]

4. Everyone just can't refuse the low, low prices from that sweat shop labor

force. Too bad pretty soon no one will be able to purchase anything because many here will have no jobs.

[enid602]

5. "The economies of Britain, France and Italy could . . . . "

The fact that the Chinese economy might well leapfrog the Italian economy within 5 years does not exactly scare me.

[enigma000]

6. The hope is the Chinese will buy our goods & services

Western economies produce goods (high tech items, cosmetics, jets) and services (credit cards, insurance, health care related products) that the Chinese consumer would one day wish to buy.

Failing that, they can keep lending us money to buy the products they make. I read somewhere that the Chinese economy requires at least 6% growth to absorb the new entries into the job market.

[DavidDvorkin]

7. It'll be the EU as #1, China as #2

And for a while, the US as #3. How long before someone else, perhaps India, becomes #4?

[Terran]

8. Just watch--China will become #1 scapegoat for

global warming disasters. As things get worse and worse for the globe's climate, China and its rather careless approach to environmental preservation will be blamed for global warming...even though it was primarily the West who created the problem and has brought us this far in it. The Right in this country will find it convenient, finally, to become Green, because they won't have a choice eventually, and they'll be blaming China for ruining the world's environment.

[NewJeffCT]

9. I don't remember who posted it on DU

but, while China has a LONG LONG ways to go on the environment, they are taking progressive steps in some areas of that country and are at least moving in the right direction in that regards, albeit slowly and often a step forward in one area is accompanied by steps back in others, but they are moving forward.... can we say the US is making progress on the environment?