If McClintock doesn't drop out today, we win. THAT SIMPLE!

[leftyandproud]

I wish Moveon or some other group would make calls of support to McClintock in this late hour. He needs to be reassured that he has support out there and that it isn't a lost cause. If he stays in the race, he will end up with 15%+ of the vote, splitting the GOP voting block between hardcore conservatives and the more pragmatic types who are willing to accept a 'moderate' like Arnold. Arnold will get around 30-35% in the end, and Bustamante may pull out with just 40% of the vote, enough to get him elected. If Mcclintock stays, we win, guaranteed. If he leaves, we're screwed...Arnold gets a solid 45%-50%, and California falls to the GOP.

That's my take on it.

[karlschneider]

1. You could be right...I don't think he's going to drop out at this stage

the last day? Can't see him doing it. Hmmm.

[Cronus Protagonist]

14. He's been running on his integrity.

If he drops out now, contrary to his claims, he'll lose his senate seat. He won't risk that so he's in for the long haul. I think he'll stay in for the court battle afterwards as well.

Click Here To See Fair & Balanced Buttons, Stickers & Magnets!>

[GreenGreenLimaBean]

2. I sure hope that doesn't happen.

My first choice is Davis stays in (Recall Fails).

[jenk]

3. All the sex scandals surrounding Ahnuld will shift support to Mcclintock

an even better chance that the vote gets split, or that the NO votes win

[Tempest]

4. Doesn't matter if he drops out

His name is on the ballot and people will still vote for him.

[Taxi Driver]

5. I don't think he'll drop out.

But I don't think we're guaranteed victory either. There are, according to the polls, many "Democrats" who support Schwarzenegger. What's important is to get massive leftist turnout.

[newyawker99]

16. Hi Taxi Driver!!

Welcome to DU!1 :toast:

[hlthe2b]

6. I'd bet money McClintock will stay in...

especially this late in the game... The Pugs have tried all the arm twisting they could to get him out already. I have to give it to him, he has principles and sticks to them(even if they aren't mine).

[candy331]

9. If Arnold

wins I would think it would be a defeat for the Repug party so called high moral ground.. Here is a man with morals that don't even measure on the scale. I wonder how in the world would a Dem vote for him? Even if they loathe Gray Davis I would think they could find some candidate of the 135 to vote for even if they didn't like Bustamante or just vote NO and select no candidate. Surely these same Democrats will vote for Bush won't they?

[Frodo]

7. I disagree! We only "win" if the recall is defeated.

And I doubt there is a single McClintoch voter who is going to say "Well, if McClintoch isn't in the race, then I'm just going to vote against the recall.

Now, if Arnold were to drop out? There could be a substantial percentage of his "supporters" who would rather see Davis than McClintoch.

[charlie]

8. I'll consider it a win if Davis doesn't get recalled

If Bustamante wins, I'll feel like we've dodged a bullet. Nothing against Cruz, I'm just mortified and pissed off that most of the nation doesn't seem to regard this shit for what it is -- a Republican coup attempt.

[Kira]

10. what % of people

need to vote no on the recall for Davis to stay in office? Anything over 50%?

[charlie]

12. Yep n/t

[LionInWinter]

11. The sheeple didn't seem to care too much about the first coup ...

in Florida!

[RichM]

13. You're probably wrong. It may well go just as the polls predict.

They show Arnold winning easily even if McClintock stays in. Sure, the polls are not infallible, or even reliable, but to be cocksure that they are COMPLETELY WRONG seems like an unjustified leap of faith.

[Frodo]

15. On top of that....

Something like 20% of the expected voting pool (roughly 2Million voters) had already voted before any of the recent articles broke. Not only would those interested in the recall be more likely to vote early (marginally), the "yes on recall" polling was close to (or over) 60% for the majority of that time.

So Davis needs something like 53% "no" tomorrow to stay in office. Cruz can't benefit enough by the scandals to win at this point (JMHO). We're just as likely to see McClintoch in that chair.

[Evanstondem]

17. Why doesn't Bustamante have a better chance than Davis?

The last complete set of polling results I saw showed Bustamante within 7-8% of Schwarzenegger, with Davis 8-10% behind on retention. Plus, there were more undecideds in Part B than Part A. Plus, aren't Repugs more likely to switch from Schwarzenegger to McClintock than from Yes to No on Davis?

[kayleybeth]

18. I hope you're right

Good luck out there tomorrow California DUers. :)

[knight_of_the_star]

19. Thanks, we will need it

We'll do what we can. Gods know as well as I do that Davis will need a miracle to stay in office. I know that I'm voting no on the recall.

[roguevalley]

20. the absentee ballots all ready cast worry me

some voters wish they could take them back now