Final Recall Predictions

[TSIAS]

First, I think this race is about turnout. I think we can get enough minorities and union members to the polls to pull through. The latest Arnold scandals may work to depress his turnout or swing it to McClintock.

My prediction on the Recall is as follows:

YES- 49
No- 51

On the replacement:

Bustamante- 38
Schwarzenegger- 35
McClintock- 20
Camejo-4
The rest- 3

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think we have a chance on one or both of the ballots tomorrow.

[Cush]

1. Voter turnout will decide it

I just think it's too close at this point

[goobergunch]

2. My prediction is printed here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=476960#477558

[ScotTissue]

3. I see it the opposite

Yes - 51 to 60 percent
No - 49 to 40

on the replacement:

Arnold: 40
Bustamante: 28
McClintock: 18
Camejo: 2
The others: 12 percent

Court wrangling, arguments about the logistics of a Terminator takeover in Sacramento, and Recall Arnold! movement to commence on Tuesday evenng.

[Padraig18]

4. I agree

I think the 'no' vote might go as high as 55%, though, depending on turnout.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. My Prediction

Recall

Yes:48%
No: 52%

Bustamante: 38% (slight edge for this great man)
Schwartzenegger: 38%
McClintock: 17%
Camejo: 4%
Others: 5%


:dem:

[pmbryant]

6. I like your thinking ;-)

I think (hope) the recall will do worse than you predict:

YES 47
NO 53

I'll follow your lead on the replacement, though I believe (hope) it will be irrelevant:

Cruz 38
Arnold 30
McC 20
Camejo 5
Other 7

:hi:

--Peter

[ps1074]

7. Here is mine

YES - 49.5

NO - 50.5

Second part is irrelevant.

[clar]

8. I think it'll be close

but in the other direction.

Yes: 52%
No: 48%

Ahhnold: 37%
Cruz: 35%
McClintock: 14%
others: 14%

[TSIAS]

9. Sorry. I made a dupe

:spank:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=476960#477558

[okieinpain]

10. what happens if the recall is 50/50

I think that arnold will pull more then cruz.