Anyone else want to claim this is a "normal hurricane season"?

[theHandpuppet]

Gobal warming deniers to the right, "normal hurricane season" supporters to the left. Keep telling yourselves (and us) this is just business as usual.

I've been debating this issue since the beginning of this hurricane season (see: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4050849 ) and would like to know if anyone cares to change his or her mind regarding the potential affects of global warming and how that might be reflected in the current hurricane season?

[Junkdrawer]

1. Why, it's perfectly normal to lose a few major American cities each year..

And we've always lost the ice caps each summer. No cause for alarm. Now excuse me while I move the US capital to Denver...

[shance]

21. Absolutely, theres no use HAARPing on the subject, is there?

n/t

[MercutioATC]

22. Jesus, not the HAARP shit again...

:eyes:

[fasttense]

2. I still believe in global warming so I guess I stay on the left.

One of the reasons I bought land in the mountains was because I wasn't sure where the coastline might be in 20 years.

[iamjoy]

3. What Is Normal

I don't think anyone is denying this is an unusually active hurricane season. There was a year in the 1930's with 21 storms, that is the most active season. However, there were actually probably more storms because back then those that were only around for a day or so and didn't hit land or interfere with shipping didn't go on record.

Some believe this is just a more active cycle and we were getting it easy from 1970 - today. I don't think you can completely dismiss that. Harder to dismiss is whether or not global warming is affecting the intensity if not the frequency of these storms.

Then, we have to debate whether or not human activity is causing global warming, and if so, to what extent.

It is not as much of a no brainer as it first seems.

Another, perhaps less debatable problem is how much the most hurricane prone areas have developed since the mid nineteenth century, making the human and financial costs of hurricanes higher. Further exasperating the situation is that a lot of what we've done to accomodate this growth has made coastal areas less able to "cope" with hurricanes that do hit.

[Lasher]

5. Very good summary

I was going to offer my views on the subject, but you just said everything I was going to say.

[theHandpuppet]

6. Business as usual, yes or no?

I'm not arguing whether global warming may be affecting the intensity of the storms and if so, whether humans have contributed to global warming, etc.

And yes, there HAVE been folks who have claimed there is nothing at all unusual about this hurricane season.

So the question remains: yes or no? That part is quite simple.

[Qibing Zero]

10. Yes, but check the intensity of the storms back in the record years

This year we've had more hurricanes and more strong hurricanes, by far.

[tx_dem41]

11. Care to back that up with some evidence? n/t

[Qibing Zero]

14. I'm looking as we speak, will post it here when I find it. nt

[Qibing Zero]

18. Okay:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1933.asp

These are the numbers I saw on the weather channel:

1933: complete season
21 storms
10 hurricanes
1 hurricane over 150mph

2005: up to today (2 months, 2 weeks left)
18 storms
8 hurricanes
3 hurricanes over 150mph

A few things to take note of from those maps:
-The ones that get into the gulf these days become much much stronger
-The drastic weakening of the hurricanes back then before they hit land (there usually is a little weakening of course)
-1933 was a freak year - check out the years around it
-In 2004 there were 'only' 16 storms total, but 4 of the storms were over 140mph

[dutchdemocrat]

4. 1995

This is business as usual - Hurricanes have been on the rise for a decade now... there's nothing new here.

In fact, experts say the real turn began in 1995 - the year, I lost everything in Hurricane Luis in St. Maarten. Over the next eight years, I went through seven more hurricanes on the island. All strange seeing that the place never had a really serious hurricane since the 30's.

As for it being caused by global warming? I have no doubt that is true. But how it is reflected in the current season is only part of a larger picture.

[back2basics909]

9. Exactly.

.. the fact is that we do not have enough data to suggest this is global warming. We do so at our own peril. We suggest and they will use real statements by global warming scientists that say "we do not have enough data".

It's about the cycle of ocean flows, this is a normal effect. Yes global warming may be contributing, but we cannot say for certain.

[ClintonTyree]

7. When was the last time we got up to the letter "R"....

in a single hurricane season, Remember, we still have 2+ months remaining as well. Yeah, it's "normal". :eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. My Take On Global Warning...

Anybody that says global warning doesn't exist is ignoring science....


And anybody who says at this time we can establish a causal link between global warning and worse hurricane seasons hasn't made his case yet with the operative words being at this time...

I'm awaiting further evidence...

[tx_dem41]

12. As always, DSB....

spot-on.

[lonestarnot]

16. Ocean temp must be 80 degrees for formation of hurricane...above that

and we get the superduper killers...

[Mizmoon]

13. Ask the 6,000 dead from the 1900 Galveston storm

:shrug: Personally I think it has something to do with the turn-of-the-century.

[Sgent]

15. Even

* doesn't deny global warming per se. He deny's that humans are playing a significant role, and that this is part of a natural planetary cycle. For that matter, the Academy of Sciences refuses to rule out the hypothesis that humans are a minor contributor to a larger cycle.

Personally, I think the evidence points to it, beyond a preponderance of the evidence and probably not clear and convincing quite yet.

[trof]

17. And will we see "extended" hurricane seasons?

This is anecdotal, but right now it's 10 degrees warmer than historical averages for September here on the Alabama gulf coast.

Hurricane formation is at least partly based on temperature.
If higher temperatures extend farther into fall, it stands to reason that the hurricane season will expand also.

[babydollhead]

19. google H.A.A.R.P.

man made weather patterns are not just a by-product of global warming.

[tx_dem41]

20. Oy vey. n/t