Tropical storm Rita to become Hurricane by tonight. Projected target...

[Javaman]

Texas and LOUISIANNA...

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news


Tropical Storm Rita is strengthening rapidly now and will likely reach hurricane intensity by this evening. Rita is expected to churn westward through the Straits of Florida tomorrow, battering the Florida Keys and western Cuba in the process. The hurricane is, in fact, forecast to reach category 2 strength before it clears the straits. Hurricane warnings are now posted for the Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay and for the extreme southern Florida Peninsula from Golden Beach southward to Florida City and westward to East Cape Sable. Hurricane warnings are also flying for portions of the northwest Bahamas and parts of west-central Cuba. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for portions of south Florida outside the areas under hurricane warnings.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels is possible in the Keys in areas of onshore flow. Heavy surf will accompany the surge. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are expected, although isolated totals of up to 15 inches are not out of the question.

Rita is expected to continue on a westward course into the Gulf of Mexico, quite likely powering up into a very dangerous major hurricane (winds over 110 mph) by midweek. All residents along the western Gulf from extreme northern Mexico to Louisiana should pay close attention to the future of Rita.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Phillippe (75 mph) is centered about 365 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Phillippe is forecast to crank up into a category 2 hurricane as it continues to swirl in a general northward direction. Such a track would keep it well east of the Leewards.

In the central and eastern Pacific, Hurricanes Jova (105 mph) and Kenneth (115 mph) and Tropical Storm Max (65 mph) are all moving (or forecast to move) in general northwesterly directions. None of the cyclones threatens any land areas.

[Oreo]

1. Anything getting close to Louisiana will be very bad

The levy fixes won't hold up to storm surges... they're only temporary.
That said... nobody needs a Cat3 right now.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

7. Yeesh!

See that "Sat PM" line? Its midpoint sits just about over my house.

Gonna be a long week. Good thing I just bought a fresh bottle of gin.

[maine_raptor]

8. Cat 3, but wait until it gets to the Gulf

Gulf waters in the 88-90 degree range, just right for growing baby hurricanes, and if it slows a bit and turns north.......:scared:

[susanna]

24. Louisiana's on the east side of this thing...

...at least according to the latest models. That puts it right about where Mississippi was for Katrina. Not so good.

[patrice]

2. I had no idea there could be so many all at the same time?

Is that unusual for Earth?

[Zynx]

4. Hard to say. They've only really been recorded for 100 years.

Hurricanes have presumably been happening for as long as there's been warm ocean water.

[Sunkiss BlueStar]

5. Weird because

Florida had back to back Canes last year. Now the Gulf is. What are the odds?

[maine_raptor]

10. Better and better as the world warms up.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

6. "Unusual for Earth?"

What an unusual way of phrasing the question.

What are hurricanes like on your home world of Marva? :-)

[patrice]

9. I was alluding to the whole system that produces hurricanes.

and perhaps, somewhat, to a personification of our home planet. Isn't it revealing that you reacted with a negative characterization of that?

[Geoff R. Casavant]

13. Not terribly revealing

and not intended to be negative. Just a harmless joke, sorry if I offended.

[patrice]

17. I'm not and I shouldn't be sooo touchy.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

23. Peace

My sense of humor doesn't transmit well over the wires, and I tend to watch too much MST.

Like they say, "same planet, different worlds."

Peace.

[Sunkiss BlueStar]

16. LOL it is unusual

but its the paths of the Canes. Like they have their own bowling alley for one state every year.

[jus_the_facts]

3. It's....Louisiana....with one N only....

.....thanks! :hi:

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. Oh man. Please don't hit LA.! Those poor people

have been through enough ALREADY!

[trof]

12. Computer models. Looks like Galveston so far.

www.weatherunderground.com

[wxfanran]

14. Rita

Hi fellow dems,


Rita looks to be on a course toward the upper Tx coast. Houston looks good at THIS point, but the spread beyond 3 days is much too wide to be sure. It all depends on a trough out west. Will it arrive quick enough to erode the western part of the ridge? That would allow Rita to make the turn into North Texas. The stronger the ridge, the more west Rita will track. Rita will likely be upgraded to Hurricane status during the 8pm Advisory.

Also, I wanted to invite all of you weather buffs over to a great site

www.easternuswx.com/bb

I'm an admin over at that board. We have over 50 pro mets there, including 3 from Accuweather and several others from the NWS. Great discussion over there with over 2500 members.

We also have a political forum as well, which could always use more dems. Another moderator at my board is a republican and he's recruiting freepers! So, enjoy the weather and debate (civil, of course) the freepers!

[Catherine Vincent]

15. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[wxfanran]

18. Thanks!

Thanks! cat_girl. I've been meaning to register for the longest. Always lurked. But I saw this thread on Rita, so I HAD to post, lol. Again, you all are welcome over at our weather board anytime. (We could use more dems!!!!)

Anyway, here is the latest plot from the ECMWF model

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=52715&st=35">Euro

Not good at all for Houston. But again, its five days out. A LOT can and will change.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi wxfanran!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[wxfanran]

21. Thanks

Thanks newyawker! Glad to be aboard!

[tex-wyo-dem]

19. Smack dab through the highest concentration of off-shore oil rigs...

...in the gulf. That's why crude jumped $4 today (highest one day jump in history).

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050919/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_6

[Rainscents]

22. I went and filled my tank this afternoon! It was 2.81 gallon