So, IS there a link between the nasty hurricane seasons we've been

[Ladyhawk]

seeing and global warming? I've heard "some say" no. What scientists saying? Which scientists?

[shoelace414]

1. direct link is impossiable to draw

however, there is a link between warmer water and hurricanes.. (which is why there are no hurricanes in winter)

[Ladyhawk]

4. I see. Perhaps if the warming trend continues, then we'll know for sure.

That's a sucky way to find out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. That's The Best And Fairest Answer

Science should never be sacrificed to politics on the right or left or you end up with Lysenkoism...

[Lisa]

8. it's a matter of connecting the dots ...

As shoelace noted. All we've got to go on are probabilities ... for example, I can make a prediction that the big repaving project downtown is going to mess up the bus schedule, and if my bus is late, that might indeed be the case -- or it could be unrelated (bus gets a flat, etc.).

But given that we already know what kinds of factors increase the strength of hurricanes (if not the number that actually form), I think it's a safe bet that warmer sea surface temperatures (already noted) are not going to improve matters.

The current reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (hundreds of scientists worldwide who have been studying global warming for a couple of decades or more).

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/

The "Synthesis" report combines the scientific and impacts parts pretty well. Kind of a heavy read, but it's pretty well-documented. The Coastal Zones and Insurance chapters of the Impacts book do take the potential of more serious storms into account.


It's difficult to say whether one particular storm, or drought, or forest fire (or even one bad year) is entirely the fault of global warming. Until we are past the period where the latest upswing in the # of North Atlantic hurricanes is supposed to subside, we won't be able to say for sure.

[walldude]

2. Anyone who denies the weather patterns are shifting

is a moran. We are seeing it right before our eyes. Whatever is causing it it is definitely happening.

[daninthemoon]

3. This was predicted. Let's believe our eyes, not *.

[mopaul]

6. crazy tree huggers always say this

global warming? you gotta be kidding me, that's a wild-eyed liberal fantasy

[daninthemoon]

11. Didn't raygun or somebody deny the ozone hole, too?

[eallen]

7. No substantive connection yet shown. Just a couple of hints.

The topic is complex, the timeframes are long, and the science doesn't progress as fast as people would like. It could be we're seeing weather patterns changing due to global warming. It could be just natural variation. Keep in mind that just because we've seen a bad year, doesn't mean we're outside the range of the last century, or that we're seeing a shift in pattern as opposed to an outlier.

Gore, of course, wants to claim this is global warming at work. The freepers, of course, want to say it's nothing but normal variation. (Except for the ones who are claiming it's the work of god.)

It's all just supposition. Except the last, which is just nonsense.

[pepperbear]

9. at the risk of oversimplification:

whether global warming is "real" or the actual cause of changing weather patterns shouldn't even be the issue. THE ISSUE should be that spouting smoke and exhaust into our atmosphere can't be a good thing.

Any politician who says otherwise or doesn't believe the extent to which we are poisoning our planet is an imbecile.

[Lisa]

10. exactly! And this is where the precautionary principle comes in ...

As you say, Pepperbear -- we already know enough about the possible negative consequences to be able to put things together. We've got evidence from multiple sources that large amounts of heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere will lead to significant changes. There's enough data to draw conclusions from, even before we have 100% certain understanding.


(It's this kind of approach which enables forecasters to plot a "cone of probability" and tighten it as they get more information, on where a particular storm is headed.)

p.s. we also know that certain types of emissions (e.g. NOx and particulates) are also bad for human health. From that standpoint alone, doing something about fossil fuel use would be a good idea, even if there were no relationship with global climate patterns.

[daninthemoon]

12. Stop making sense. Rember, trees cause pollution. Raygun says.