Latest Updates from TS RITA from Weather Underground & AccuWeather:

[KoKo]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 2:26 AM GMT on September 20, 2005
Updated: 2:38 AM GMT on September 20, 2005
It's not official, but it soon will be--Rita is a hurricane. The latest satellite imagery shows a huge and expanding burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops near the center. The latest UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimate puts Rita as a 80 mph hurricane with a 982 mb central pressure. Radar imagery from Camaguey, Cuba shows a partially formed elliptical eyewall, open to the north. Long range Miami radar shows a large and expanding area of radar echoes approaching Florida. Rita is a large, impressive Category 1 hurricane, and growing stronger by the hour. The lower Keys are in for a nasty pounding. This may equal or exceed the most damaging hurricane ever in Key West, which I believe was Category 2 Hurricane Georges in 1998, which brought a 4 - 6 foot storm surge and Category 1 winds to the lower Keys, causing $340 million in damage. Expect roof and moderate structural damage to homes and businesses from Rita. Hundred of mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Large trees and power poles will be toppled. Damage will be at least $1 billion, which will largely be uninsured losses, since many insurance companies won't insure propery in the Keys.

Where will Rita hit?

Take your pick from today's latest model runs:

GFS: TX/LA border
NOGAPS: Brownsville, TX
UKMET: Galveston
GFDL: Galveston

So, the model trend that had taken Rita towards landfall in western Louisiana has now reversed, to Texas' detriment. Tune in tomorrow morning, the NOAA jet is flying a high-altitude synoptic surveilance mission that should greatly aid the model predictions that will be complete in the morning. I won't start believing the models until I see some runs with the NOAA jet data initializing them.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html



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ACCUWEATHER UPDATE:

Rita is expected to strengthen and should become a hurricane in the next 12 hours. Rita could reach Category 2 strength Tuesday as it crosses the Florida Straits, close to Key West. While there may be some fluctuation in strength as Rita passes north of Cuba Tuesday night, Rita may become a major hurricane as she crosses the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. There is concern that Rita could make landfall as a major hurricane along the Texas coast later in the week or early next weekend.

Rita will generally track to the west-northwest Monday night then take a turn more to the west Tuesday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas expands eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We expect that this upper ridge of high pressure remains strong and steers Rita on general westerly course across the Florida Straits Tuesday and the central Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

Heavy flooding rain and damaging winds will spread west across the Bahamas Monday night, while hurricane conditions should move into the Florida Keys later Monday night and last into Tuesday. A storm surge of 6-8 feet could affect the Keys, while a 3- to 5-foot storm surge can effect the extreme southeastern Florida Coast and the northwestern Bahamas. There can be a surge of 1-3 feet as far north as Palm Beach, Florida. Tropical storm conditions will spread northwestward across southern Florida Monday night and Tuesday. All interests in South Florida, particularly in the Keys, as well as the southern Gulf and along the Texas and Mexican coasts should now be completing preparations for Rita's onslaught. Rough surf, rip currents and minor beach erosion will be a threat through Tuesday along the East Coast Florida beaches, especially south of Cape Canaveral.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&area=atlantic

[Wilber_Stool]

1. Latest from

NOAA Water vapor:

[KoKo]

2. Looks like it's "slipping through the FLA Straights with the bad quadrant

going to pass over Keys. Maybe tornados and lots of rain there. It's a mean looking thing. I can see why they are worried when it goes into the Gulf. :scared:

[Bouncy Ball]

17. Your avatar goes so well with that graphic.

Just wanted to say that.

[ken_g]

3. Looks a hell of lot like Katrina to me.

... Kantrina's my wife's name by the way. I'm Ken, or as my mother called me, Kenneth. (see Pacific ocean). We have a standing joke that Kenneth and Katrina may very well be responsible for finally bringing down the Bush admin.

[KoKo]

6. lols...maybe next year we get Hurricane Ken...

:D or, are you saying there's already a Ken in the Pacific? There are so many hurricanes out there, everywhere...it's hard to keep track..but being in the Hurricane Zone I track the East Coast...

[msongs]

4. worse hurricane in fla keys in 1919...

http://tampa.about.com/cs/history/l/bl1919.htm

Msongs
www.msongs.com/clark2008.htm

[phusion]

5. I can't remember...

Was Katrina a hurricane by the time it hit Florida?

[mtpWriter]

8. Yes, as a CAT-1.

Nine people were killed.

[Pirate Smile]

12. That is what I was wondering about - how does this compare to Katrina

when it went through Florida? I know it was a Category 1 at the time.

[mtpWriter]

14. I don't think you can compare them...

at least from a meteorological standpoint. Air and water temps are slightly different (with makes a huge difference), and we also have different high/low ridges, steering currents, etc.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi mtpWriter!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[KoKo]

9. I think it was a Tropical Storm that bordered on a Category One.

That's why folks were surprised at all the damage and loss of power.

[mtpWriter]

11. It was a hurricane.

CAT-1, and I've been through TS's that did as much damage as that. Living on the coast all my life, I can't see how the damage and power outages could have surprised anyone in FL.

[KoKo]

16. Thanks for the extra info and correction on it being Category 1

my memory was that it was TS that hit as a One...but you are correct ...now that I remember all the reports they kept saying it was "only a Cat-1 when it hit FLA..as an excuse for why they were so "shocked" that it gained strength in the Gulf when all of us who live in Hurricane Areas were monitoring it night and day and knew it was going to be a four or five hitting in the Gulf.

[tedzbear]

7. Looks like $4.00 gal. gas by Wednesday...

Hurricane Rita Hayworth is going to be expensive.

[KoKo]

10. Didn't OPEC say they would give Bush more oil a few days ago before

this came up? But, if it can't be refined then it might not do us much good. :-( Lot's of refineries are West of New Orleans, I read..outside Galveston.

[moobu2]

13. from the weather channel

Tropical Storm Rita should become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Rita is expected to batter the Florida Keys and western Cuba on Tuesday. Hurricane warnings are posted for the Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay and for the extreme southern Florida Peninsula from Golden Beach southward to Florida City and westward to East Cape Sable. The Hurricane warning has now been extended to include areas from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee. Hurricane warnings are also in effect for portions of the northwest Bahamas and parts of west-central Cuba. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for portions of south Florida outside the areas under hurricane warnings. Tropical storm warnings extend all the way to Lake Okeechobee. Residents of the Florida Keys and those in mobile homes across southeast Florida should evacuate.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels is possible in the Keys in areas of onshore flow. Heavy surf will accompany the surge. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are expected, although isolated totals of up to 15 inches may occur.

Rita is expected to continue on a westward course into the Gulf of Mexico, quite likely powering up into a very dangerous major hurricane (winds over 110 mph) by midweek. All residents along the western Gulf from extreme northern Mexico to Louisiana should pay close attention to the future of Rita.

[gasperc]

15. wasn't Katrina a CAT1 when it passed the keys?

yep it was

[Bouncy Ball]

18. Everyone should be aware of the fact that, while "category one"

doesn't SOUND bad, it's still pretty bad. Anything that reaches the classification of hurricane is bad. It's just a matter of bad, badder and holy shit.