GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush

[pruner]

A memo being circulated by a prominent Republican polling firm argues that GOPers run a serious risk of underestimating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) as a general election candidate against President Bush. <...>

Dean has leapt to the top of the polls in key primary states as well as the money chase by touting himself as the consummate outsider candidate in a field filled with Members of Congress.

“The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle,” write. “We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.” <...>

Officials involved in Bush’s re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

“The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates,” said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Dean gets their base voters excited.”

In an interview Friday, Moore agreed that “those who are fully engaged in the political process understand that does represent a potential problem.”

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_35/news/3120-1.html (subscription required)

excerpt taken from http://www.blogforamerica.com

[kiahzero]

1. Agreed

Dean isn't unelectable by any means. I disagree with the way he's campaigned (how about a little less negativity), but his positions match with mine for the most part.

[drfemoe]

13. Negative?

As far as I've heard, he's only negative on the current administration / republican agenda.

His position is that he does not want to attack the other democratic candidates because that is counter productive. otoh Gephardt has put up an entire web site to criticize Dean!!

If you have information implicating Dean in democratic bashing, please share.

http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=press_releases

[kiahzero]

42. Here are some examples

to wit (probably not exact quotes, but recollections):
"Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party" - ie, the others aren't real Democrats
re: Clark being a Republican
I recall others, but those are the ones that stick in my mind. Granted, it's not as bad as Gephardt's attack on Dean during the debate.

[nbsmom]

48. Just what IS Clark?

My understanding that he still hadn't officially registered as a Dem as of last week.

But maybe it's me...

[drfemoe]

52. Now I remember ..

thanks for your reply

... Yes, awhile back I think his message was more to set himself apart .. especially from those candidates who voted for the Iraq war. Now that all the candidates have decided to oppose the original invasion (except Lieberman - who knows), the message has changed.

I think he sticks to policy debate even when he is attacked by other members of his 'party'. imo

[Judson39]

56. Mine too

***

[AP]

2. Isn't it unusual for insiders to brag that their inside polling shows...

...their candidate is losing?

Does anyone think the the Republicans are doing this so that people don't abandon Dean for, say, Clark (who is polling much better head to head with Bush)?

[pruner]

3. 1-2% = much better?

what world do you live in where a difference within the margin of error constitutes much better?

[Julien Sorel]

5. What polls are you talking about?

The ones I see show Clark and Kerry winning, Dean losing against Bush. And of course, since Dean would be dead meat in the South, Bush would focus most of his efforts on the swing states, whereas Clark would force Bush to spread his efforts out.

[pruner]

6. as far as I know…

the latest polls show the top 5 candidates (which includes Dean) within the margin of error against Bush.

[Classical_Liberal]

10. Why would Clark or Kerry do better in the South than Gore

Kerry particularly has the same regional issues as Dean. Being a Southerner seems to be neither here nor there with Southerners, if you look at Al Gore. I don't think Southern Dem Candidates are of any value when going against Southern Conservatives. They only help against yankee republicans. Hint: The republicans will be running Bush again.

[Julien Sorel]

31. It certainly helped Clinton and Carter.

Kerry and Clark have something that other candidates have lacked: sterling miitary credentials, which go over well in the South. Clark's in particular would be welcome there, as polls currently show. The South has a long tradition of providing outstanding military leaders to this country, and Clark is one of them. That, plus his southern background (his accent is becoming more southern as time goes by, is a sense I get from weatching him), makes him viable down there in a way that the rest of the Democrats in the field are not.

Gore does not stack up in this area -- being a reporter was not quite the same thing, no offense to Gore's service intended.

[Classical_Liberal]

32. I seem to remember a certain legless armless vet in Georgia

that was unseated for a chicken hawk republican, just last year. I don't believe Clinton won because he was a Southerner.

[Julien Sorel]

39. I smell the scent of straw.

Clinton won for several reasons -- his focus on jobs, charisma, and so on. The fact that he was a southerner -- a 'bubba' as he was called, helped as well. If you want to say it had nothing to do with Clinton being elected, be my guest, but decades of presidential elections argue against it. Clinton. Carter. LBJ. The most recent Democratic presidents, all southerners. Kennedy won before the South defected to the Repubs. Coincidence, no doubt.

[stickdog]

21. Nice Sig.

But don't you mean "Patriotism for a New American Century"?

[Kahuna]

7. Ding ding ding ding! It's a desperation play if..

ever I saw one.

[tinnypriv]

23. So.....

"Go Dean!" from Rove means Repugs want Dean?

"We fear Dean" from insiders also means repugs want Dean?

It'd be a lot simpler if you just admitted that it doesn't make any difference what any article says about Dean. Repugs can say they fear Dean, think he's a pushover, are scared to death of him, excited about facing him etc etc, but you've already reached the conclusion (based on no empirical evidence whatsoever), that "Republicans Want Dean".

Essentially:

"Go Dean!" = Dean is a pushover.
"We fear Dean" = Repug plant, subtle leak. Done to give the impression of fearing Dean when they really don't.

They're the two basic positions.

Now, both of those could be lies, or one could be truth. But unless you're clairvoyant, I don't see how you can know one way or the other.

Regardless, one thing that most people do know is that ANY the top democratic candidates could beat the chimp. Dean or Clark could walk all over him, and the rest wouldn't find it too difficult either.

[Julien Sorel]

38. The Republicans have been pulling for Dean for many months.

There is Rove's classic 'Go Howard Dean, that's the one we want,' which was back in June, I think, and a couple of Republican strategists have acknowledged that Dean would be the easiest candidate for them to beat. And then there are the polls, as well as political reality here: Dean, as a Northeastern 'liberal' who supports gay civil unions, polls poorly in the South, which means Bush wouldn't have to work very hard to keep the South in his corner (he won every southern state in 2000).

Here is a map showing political leanings in this country:




I'm not sure how aware of our political system you are, but our elections are decided on a state-by-state basis. As you can see by that map, the Republicans own the southern states, and Dean is not going to make a dent in that. A Dean candidacy would depend on winning every single state that Gore won in 2000, plus hoping to pick off one of the Republican leaners to make up the margin, without losing a single marginal Blue state. It isn't the best way to go as long as you have an alternative, especially when your opponent knows this, and has a giant war chest to spend in the battleground areas. Bush could actually challenge Democrats in New Mexico and Oregon (which Dems barely won in 2000), and Pennsylvania, and that would be lights out for Democratic chances. From a purely analytical standpoint, Dean is not an optimal choice, and the Republicans know this as well as anyone. Any concerns they have about Dean are much less likely to be about Dean's strength than they are about Bush's weakness. I'd rather my opponent was worried about my candidate's chances, than afraid about the status of his own.

[J B]

4. "Why don't you nominate that guy?"

I don't know if anyone can beat Bush this election, but hey, at least vote for a real candidate.

[Classical_Liberal]

8. They are right. Not to mention the fact that the assumption

that Dean was a soft target was forged when the war was going well. It clearly isn't.

[twilight]

9. believe it they want you to ...

As the reality of Dennis J. Kucinich slips into the background. Just wait until the Green Party endorses him, then the GOP will really have something to be seriously worried about!



Forgotten ONLY my the media!!!

DENNIS J. KUCINICH FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004!

Every single person makes a difference!

http://www.kucinich.us

:dem:

[JohnKleeb]

15. Its unfortunate

Drives me nuts.

[Pastiche423]

11. Dr. Dean definitely has my base excited!

;-)

[janekat]

12. Saw one of Roves favorite mouthpeices also published a quote saying

that Karl Rove is very worried about Howard Dean. That said it all for me...

Dean is the Republican's annointed candidate.

[Classical_Liberal]

14. Rove has also said Dean is the Candidate he would most

like to run against. What to make of that? Look they thought Clinton was a pushover. I don't think we should base our votes on republicans.

[pruner]

16. so what you're saying is that when the GOP says they'd like to face Dean…

what they mean is that they'd like to face Dean.

and when the GOP says they don't want to face Dean, what they mean is that they want to face Dean.

LMAO @ you.

[poskonig]

19. "We can't win!"

Pun intended.

[stlsaxman]

17. Let's hope this isn't "gop-code" for a call to "Wellstone" Dean....

Stay off chartered planes, Howard.

[Bombtrack]

18. when they say they want him nominated, it's reverse psychology...

but when this is circulated, it's not.

Yeah, of course Dean could beat him, but it would still take monumental shifts in public opinion about middle class taxes, the decision to go to war, and regional shifts in opinion about gay rights as well.

If any credible GOP pollster say's that rather face Dean than Kerry, Clark, or Edwards, they are lying or loony

[Classical_Liberal]

25. Edwards approves of Gay Unions

The public wasn't fired up over the tax cut because it wasn't middle class. To suggest that the tax cut was middle class is actually good for Bush. The public is now against the war according to the NYTimes.

and your point was?

[Democat]

20. I like Dean, but this news is strange

Dean is driving all Democrats to fight harder against Bush and without him, I think we would be in a lot worse shape. I still get a strong feeling, though, that Republicans are trying to do what Davis did in 2002 and pick our candidate for us. The candidate they want seems to be Dean.

I'm still not sure what to make of it all.

[RandomUser]

33. Interesting

Dean has helped show the way to excite the base, which is good for all the candidates. But now that the base is fired up and this technique is evident, any candidate can use it in the general election, so we don't need Dean exactly. But this looks like Rove is pulling a Davis on us. And we know Davis won with this particular strategy.

[pruner]

40. the base is fired up for Dean…

and if you think any of the other 8 candidates can just copy Dean's formula you obviously haven't been paying attention… cause if you had been you'd realize that Dean himself is the most important ingredient.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. Doth insist too much

These GOP pollsters insist way too much IMHO.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

24. It's quatruple-reverse psychology.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

26. Here's the Difference

When Karl Rove is overheard during a parade saying "Dean's the one we want to run against," I tend to believe that. It's what we call in the law, "an excited utterance." He also probably didn't expect to be overheard.

When GOP pollsters put out a MEMO discussing Dean's electability, it seems a bit more contrived.

I don't think Dean is unelectable. He is electable. But he's just not as electable as Clark, given Clark's unimpeachable foreign policy bona fides and his status as a military Southerner, a huge bonus in the important Southern states.

DTH

[pruner]

27. your statement regarding Clark's electability is nothing but opinion…

seeing how he's never been elected to anything before.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

28. It's Actually Just Common Sense

Who are most Southerners more likely to vote for? A New Englander perceived as liberal, or a Southerner with a MILITARY TRADITION perceived as moderate?

There is only one answer, if you're being intellectually honest.

I am not saying Dean is unelectable; I am simply saying Clark has a better chance in the South, and is also more electable in general.

DTH

[Classical_Liberal]

34. Having a decorated Vet on the ticket didn't help us in Georgia

I am sorry. I think the personality is what makes a difference.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

36. Do You Think It HURT?

No, of course not.

We all know Shrub and his $200MM are going to do their damnedest to smear the Democratic candidate. They will just have a tougher time doing it to Clark, than Dean.

DTH

[Classical_Liberal]

51. It didn't help

the southerner thing loses effectiveness after the loss of Gore. Sorry. I am going to vote for the best guy, who is Dean imho. I believe Southerners will like him too.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

53. You're Obviously Free to Vote For Whoever You Want

But if you honestly believe a Southern "moderate" general will somehow fare worse than or equal to a New England "liberal" candidate who avoided service in Vietnam, in the South, you are completely deluding yourself.

DTH

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. There are polls to support that belief

the polls that showed either Kerry OR Clark beating Buhs head to head.

[pruner]

30. latest polls show top 5 candidates within margin of error

n/t

[DoveTurnedHawk]

35. That's ONE Poll

All the rest show Clark doing better than Dean, against Bush.

DTH

[w4rma]

37. Rosenberg: “…Dean campaign is the best-run campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Dean still on top of money race

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 — In the surreal mind-set of the campaign expectations game, psychology can get twisted at the end of every quarter. Democratic front-runner Howard Dean’s campaign publicly set $15 million as its goal for fund raising for the third quarter, which ended at midnight Tuesday. According to Dean’s Web site he raised $14.8 million, with last-minute contributions still being counted.

DEAN HAD dramatically exceeded fund-raising expectations in the second quarter by collecting $7.6 million. Is his $14.7 million a wee bit of a deflating result for the third quarter? Only if you live on the plane of surreal expectations.

EXTRAORDINARY MONEY MACHINE

Dean’s extraordinary money machine is still far more efficient than anything Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, or the other Democratic contenders have working for them.

Dean is on course to have enough money to air television ads and hire operatives in states where fund-raising laggards may not be able to during the hustle-bustle of primaries that will take place in February and the first week of March.
…
“We do believe it is an important decision that we’re going to have to make, because in the end Bush is just raising this money.... They’re going to raise $200 million and spend it against the Democrats between April and August when we go to the convention.... If we make the decision, it would be to compete with Bush. We’ve already proven that we can compete with the other Democrats.”

Simon Rosenberg, who heads the centrist New Democrat Network, put the Dean bounty in perspective by noting that in a 10-candidate field the former Vermont governor was able to raise 50 percent more than Bill Clinton raised in the best quarter of his 1996 re-election effort. Rosenberg called Dean’s feat “almost miraculous” and added, “We have to recognize that the Dean campaign is the best-run campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Taking the party-wide view, Rosenberg pointed to what almost no one else has noticed: Based on the preliminary estimates for the third quarter, the 10-person Democratic field collectively will have outraised the Bush campaign, an indication of how fired up Democratic donors are.

“If Bush is this supposed fund-raising king, then this so-called ‘weak’ Democratic field — to use Karl Rove’s word — is outraising him,” Rosenberg said.
…
http://www.msnbc.com/news/974339.asp
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=52916

[BigBigBear]

41. Sorry but

I still think that they think can slaughter Dean. They'll paint him as a NE liberal (which won't be necessarily true, but the label sticks easily).

I agree with the guy earlier who said that ignoring or writing off the South is a big mistake. If Arnold wins tomorrow and things get even marginally better, California COULD be in play - at least enough to force Dean to spend money there. Bush will have money to burn in any case.

We need to make them spend their money where they don't want to. The Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Penn, Florida.

Frankly, the only guy who can realistically challenge the Solid South is Clark - either alone or as Dean's #2. Edwards maybe, but I don't think (from this vantage) he has the money or name recognition to really be a contender.

We don't need a guy that'll win Oregon by a mile, and NM by a mile, and MN by a mile. We need someone who can force them to blow millions trying to keep their "lock" states.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

43. Clark as VP Isn't Good Enough to Carry the South, IMO

Even Lloyd Bentsen wasn't able to deliver his HOME state, much less help significantly in other Southern states.

VP is useful to shore up perceived weaknesses and carry the VPs home state, much more so than an entire region, IMO.

DTH

[Evanstondem]

46. It's way to early to project

these kind of outcomes. Clark is a serious candidate, but his campaign is still gelling and he hasn't been seriously tested yet.

[fla nocount]

44. Least we forget. Gore beat Bush.

Bush isn't who we have to beat.......let's stay focused on the goal. It's the Military/Industrial cabal that has to be disinfranchised and that can only happen when "We The People" refuse to play ball. So stop calling them sheep and start calling them neighbors or co-workers. Reach out, be a shepard.

[Kanola]

45. Geez are the insider Repugs that SLOW???

Of course Dean is a force to be reckoned with..duh.. look what he has done so far in the course of politics. Dean is a maverick! My opinion is they are WTF? about Dean.

[quaker bill]

47. I think the polling is right.

Dean can beat Bush. SO could several other candidates (Clark, Kerry, and perhaps Edwards and Gebhardt).

They will try to paint Dean up as a NE liberal. They will probably attack Clark's never holding elected office and being part of the Arkansas mafia. Kerry threw his medals at the Capitol and ran vietnam vets against the war (read liberal), and Edwards as a Liberal Trial lawyer, too young, too little experience.

It does not matter who we nominate, they will find bricks to throw at the Dem candidate. Bush has a highly compensated staff who exist to do nothing other than find the ammo.

So far Dean brings energy to his campaign that no other Dem has matched. This energy is the only way to face off with the onslaught that is comming once it is one on one with Bush*. All of these guys have the potential, perhaps one or more will step it up.

Clark needs to step up the tempo. He has many of the better ideas and some of the better lines, but he has to get a rythmn and the delivery down. A weekend seminar with Al Sharpton would help.

[stickdog]

49. GOP pollsters say, "We are liars."

Should we believe them or not?

[dkf]

50. Does the Electoral College Favor Dean?

http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml

DOES THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE FAVOR DEAN?: Today's edition of Roll Call reports that a group of Republican pollsters believes Howard Dean represents a serious threat to George W. Bush. Interestingly, the pollsters make two of the points we've been flogging here for the past several months: 1) Dean is the one guy capable of exciting the Democratic base without alienating moderates--since the substance of most of his policy positions is pretty moderate. 2) Dean's appeal has less to do with specific policies than with his personal charisma and apparent plainspoken-ness. The way we see it, this fact leaves Dean a ton of room to moderate himself on substance without alienating his more liberal supporters.

One interesting point the pollsters bring up that we hadn't even considered is that Dean may actually be well-suited to pick up the marginal electoral-college states a Democrat needs to win the presidency. The article cites Nevada and West Virginia in particular--the former because Dean could focus his anti-Bush vitriol on the administration's plans to turn the state into a nuclear waste dump, and the latter because Dean's moderate position on gun control could bring blue-collar voters back into the Democratic fold. (Al Gore narrowly lost the traditionally Democratic state in 2000 thanks to defections among these voters.)

What's truly amazing is that Nevada and West Virginia are (theoretically) the only two states Bush carried in 2000 that Dean would need to carry in order to win the electoral college. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to think Dean would hold his own in the states Gore won. After all, the winning margin in many of the states Gore carried only narrowly--Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, even Florida--was depressed because of defections to Nader or broader liberal dissatisfaction with Gore. Dean's aggressive criticism of the president should only help him here.

Maybe the broader point is that in red/blue America, a reasonably competent Democratic nominee starts with close to 250 electoral college votes. If he can just slice off a couple more here and there, he can make a pretty compelling run for the White House.

posted 1:30 p.m.

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[bitchkitty]

54. ha ha! Be afraid, be very afraid, chimpie!

:scared:

[retyred]

55. "GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush"

Ah yes, the GOP will give us all their choice to beat "Their" guy. The "Honor and Integrity" side of the political coin.

Thanks but no thanks!

I'll just stick with Clark!


CLARK FOR PRESIDENT
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