NHC Public Advisory Number 12 (next one at 5:00 EDT)

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
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TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT
RITA HAS REACHED 100 MPH WINDS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REFLECT
A CHANGE IN BOTH INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE IS NO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND


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[ClintonTyree]

1. Man, did that strengthen in a hurry........

and there's nowhere for it to go but worse from here on.

[Penndems]

3. Unfortunately, yes

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is about 86 degrees. Most favorable for strengthening this baby.

[cawe24]

2. Good thing for Texas...

Lots of white folks live there, so the emergency response will be quick and comprehensive.

How does the gov't play this? If they delay the response, there will be Katrina: Part Deux, if they deploy response right away it will look even more like blatant racism.

Spin it Rove, spin it good!

[Penndems]

4. If Junior DOES decide to visit Texas this weekend when this

thing hits, Rove will have him hunkerin' down in the Astrodome, where he'll have a captive audience, LOL. ;)

Wouldn't that be The Village Idiot's worse nightmare?