CNN Breaking News email: Rita going to Cat 4

[brooklynite]

-- Hurricane Rita expected to reach category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico by 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, forecasters say.

[trof]

1. ALL computer models now show TX landfall.

[tinrobot]

3. Please not Houston

That would be a little too much for all those people stuck in the Astrodome.

[rainbow4321]

18. So where is Matagorda Island, TX?

Cus that is what weatherundergound.com has as a possibilty. But even if it hits landfall there, won't a large part of the TX coast still be in trouble?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Threat to Louisiana fades
Last night, the NOAA jet flew its first mission into Rita, and collected high-density data used to initialize last night's computer model runs. The models are more tightly clustered than before, and now all the models point to a landfall in Texas Saturday, somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. NHC thinks that their current projected landfall point near Matagorda, TX is more reliable than usual. If we take the average NHC 4-day forecast track error of 200 miles and knock it down by 50 miles or so since we're assuming NHC is correct about their more reliable than usual forecast, this gives a probable landfall point somewhere between Corpus Christi and the Texas/Louisiana border. So, western Louisiana is still at considerable risk, but New Orleans will miss this hurricane.

[StellaBlue]

23. Matagorda Bay

[tridim]

33. What up with the "Explosives dumping area disused"

and the "dump site" on that map? That doesn't sound good at all.

[StellaBlue]

40. Yeah... I was wondering that myself...

Got it from google...

Just noticed that bit after I posted it... hmm...

Does that mean we can't dump * there in 2009?

[Gruenemann]

46. Most likely old military junk

Unwanted bombs, shells and the like. A couple of thousand feet down, most likely. However, occasionally a bomb comes up in a shrimper's net. That happened to the shrimper husband of someone I worked with in Port Isabel (TX). He thought nothing of it, even got out a wrench and tried to take it apart. He got to port, offloaded his shrimp, and kind of as an afterthought notified the authorities. I was driving home and the cops were making everone stop where the port road intersected with the main road--and a bomb disposal truck drove by. A few hours later I was in my back yard when I heard a big BOOM that rattled all the windows in the neighborhood. They had detonated the sumbitch several miles away. It gave me a whole new appreciation for those who get bombed.

[HeeBGBz]

57. There are dump sites in the middle of the Gulf?

I was unaware of this little tidbit.

[Rainscents]

47. WTF is up with DUMP area? It looks like huge area!

[MoJoWorkin]

29. Matagorda is on the coast between Houston and Corpus

Also, there is a nuclear power plant not far inland South of Bay City, about 90 miles sse of Houston. I don't know what problems might arise from that, but it is worrisome. My daughter lives in Austin, and we have been to the beach at Matagorda---probably around 150 miles from Austin, as the crow flies.

[HereSince1628]

8. Now that recon flights are providing data the plots are better

another day and we'll know better where it's going. But it looks tough for the Texas coast.

Going to category 4 was unexpected, but it passed from Cat 1 to Cat 2 much faster than expected.

[murray hill farm]

12. Houston?

another hit to the oil refineries? Can u imagine what that will do to gas prices?

[HereSince1628]

22. Yes, it would be devastating but nothing is sure at this time.

It could hook all the way to Louisiana, or it could slide off into the Rio Grande valley. Right now the computers make it look bad for 100 miles either side of Port Lavaca, but that can, and probably will change.

[hiaasenrocks]

61. One of my local stations (in Charleston) is showing

a landfall just west of NOLA. They use something called "Live VIPR" for computer models. Granted, it's the only piece of technology showing this prediction but I just thought I'd throw that in. I think, at this point, it's way early to tell anything for sure.

[karlrschneider]

2. I became certain it would when I saw it pass between FL & Cuba

very little cyclolosys from land...

[Jacobin]

10. um

what happened to the Jennings prediction?

:-)

[karlrschneider]

27. Heh...looks like I fukked up.

:D

Was expecting that high pressure ridge to move northeast more quickly.

[Jacobin]

39. Don't feel like the lone ranger

I predicted Sabine Pass and it looks like the models are all agreeing on a more westerly course.

:hi:

[lastliberalintexas]

52. Hush your mouth!

While I don't wish this thing on anyone else, I certainly don't want it in my backyard either. You think if we all concentrate really hard that we could force it back in the Atlantic? :)

[Ian David]

4. NOW would be a great time for Bush to vacation in Crawford

Maybe do some sailing in The Gulf.

[LuCifer]

17. At least in that instance, there wouldn't be any loss of innocent life

Thank you Bill Hicks for that slightly updated line!

Lu

[txindy]

45. He'd just get a good, steady rain up in Crawford

That area needs the rain, too. They wouldn't suffer from a hurricane in Crawford. The rest of us, though...

I second the vote for Junior to go do some sailing in the Gulf this week!

[deutsey]

5. Damn...

Here we go again.

[Lex]

6. Oh no! It will tear the hell out of where ever it hits.

Crap.

[pepperlove]

68. Then....

may it hit the * funny farm ONLY. And the site where * is hiding out.

[deadparrot]

7. Oh, no. AAR said Cat3, and I though that was bad.

:scared:

The last thing we need is this while the current nuts are in office. Though maybe since it's hitting near his beloved Texas, and in an attempt to stop the bleeding from Katrina, we'll see some action.

[StellaBlue]

28. As a Texan

I find that offensive.

He doesn't love Texas. Never has, never will.



;-)

[deadparrot]

31. Didn't mean it to be offensive. It was a dry comment.

Hard to tell when it's over a computer screen, though. :)

[StellaBlue]

35. I know

That's why I added the ;-).

haha

But I do get tired of hearing that.

[SpiralHawk]

36. Bush is a Connecticut Preppy Cheerleader

With an elite prep school and Ivy league "stamp" on him.

he just like to pretend he's a Texan.

All hat, no cattle.

[AspenRose]

53. I have that "home" coffee mug!

Salute! :patriot:

[StellaBlue]

65. I have it as a luggage tag!

:)

[fleabert]

58. OT- I have that 'home' sticker on my car here in CA...

Love and thoughts to everyone in TX...I feel the same way you do.

Bush is no Texan!

[Walt Starr]

9. I predicted this hours ago...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4828579&mesg_id=4828764

[Penndems]

14. Right on the money, Walt

If Rita does hit CAT 4, we're looking at another Katrina.

God help us all.

[Silverhair]

62. Nowhere near the same damage, unless Galveston gets it. NT

[Silverhair]

60. Me too. The Gulf is really HOT.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4828579&mesg_id=4828757

[StellaBlue]

66. I heard the weatherman out of Dallas say

That the Gulf water temp is about 88 degrees - that is surprisingly hot. Our swimming pool is down to about 83/84 now.... though with the last three days being over 100, it may warm up again (yay!).

Anyway, I can't believe the OCEAN is that hot at the end of September.

[brooklynite]

11. Perhaps this would be a good time...

for W to stop "visiting" the Gulf, and stay out of the way...

[Bumblebee]

16. On the contrary. His "bullhorn moment" should be staying in the

eye of the hurricane -- in his home state. Don't you think?

[fleabert]

59. rita is going to hit Connecticut?

that's where shithead is from, btw...

[leftofthedial]

13. Pat Robertson blames Austin Police for Rita targeting Texas

"These so-called law men--evil demons is really what they are--targeted Holy George's precious nephew for the most perverse and sinful of reasons. So Gawd is aiming his righteous retribution against that state. Please send your donations to 'Pat's Crusade to End (his relative) Poverty,' " said Robertson on this afternoon's 700 Club broadcast.

[Carla in Ca]

55. Did he really say that?

Heading for Texas because *'s nephew got arrested in Austin? And here I was waiting for him to say it is going there to follow the heathen evacuees. Either way, I can't wait until that sinner goes straight to hell. The sooner the better!

[Dudley_DUright]

15. Here is the intensity prediction from the National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805I_sm2+gif/205128P_sm.gif

[StellaBlue]

19. Ugh

I am going to get the brunt of the post-hurricane TS winds/rain according to a couple of those models.

But we need rain up here... :/

I just hope the whole coast manages to evacuate in time this time.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[StellaBlue]

30. See my post #28

Bush Country is a mental hell.

[txindy]

49. Mother Nature isn't that stupid

Why don't you drive on down to the Astrodome and tell the people there that Mother Nature has come to wipe them out for revenge? Then drive around the state and tell the tens of thousands of other Gulf Coast evacuees that Mother Nature is coming for them - again. We'll wait.

:popcorn:

[MazeRat7]

20. Damn.. I'm gonna get wet this weekend...... *grrrrrrr

Yup... I predict it will hit Freeport and from there straight on to Austin. So much for ACL fest not to mention the flooding....


MZr7

[phusion]

69. ACL fest is this weekend?

That's too bad... :(

[mitchtv]

21. I hope I don't have to listen to any more "weather" readers

"hoping" it hits Mexico instead.I'll leave it at that.

[okieinpain]

25. oh no but see al gore is an environmental wacko, talking about global

warming being bad. see with global warming you can go swimming in the gulf and your gonads won't shrivel all up and stuff. stupid al gore.

:~)

[killbotfactory]

26. Bush declares $400 billion to go to reconstruction

[StellaBlue]

32. Anybody have any predictions

On how the response will differ if it hits Houston vs. the Valley?

(for those not familiar, 'the Valley' = Mexican-Americans, the original Texans)

[Der Blaue Engel]

Oh, dear

That's all I have to say. :(

[benburch]

34. I expect it to bear right of the track.

And make landfall at or near the TX/LA border.

That is based on the bias recent storms seem to have had to the established models.

[tiptoe]

37. Hurricane Categories:

Hurricane Categories

Varying Strength ... & Destruction

Hurricanes are evaluated in a number of ways. Storms are assigned a category based on winds, storm surge and barometric pressure, using the Saffir-Simpson scale.



Category 1:
Category 1 storms have winds of 74-95 miles per hour, making them the weakest of hurricanes. Even these storms can generate a storm surge of 4 or 5 feet above normal high tide.



Category 2:
Category 2 storms have winds of up to 110 miles per hour, and can push a storm surge of 6 to 8 feet.



Category 3:
Category 3 storm winds can reach 130 miles per hour. This is the cutoff for "major" hurricanes, with commensurate storm surge potential of 9 to 12 feet.



Category 4:
Category 4 winds can be as high as 155 miles per hour, and such a storm brings a 13 to 18 foot storm surge.



Category 5:
Category 5 storms, with winds greater than 155 miles per hour, are very rare. These monsters can have storm surges of over 20 feet. Only 2 such hurricanes have hit the U.S. this century - Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992.

[BootinUp]

38. damn.

This weather shit is getting out of control. I watched the movie "Day after Tomorrow" for the second time last night. Watching it Post-Katrina I didn't have as hard of a time suspending disbelief.

[intheflow]

42. Except for the wolves in NYC.

That was the part of the movie I just couldn't get beyond, I actually laughed out loud when I saw that in the theater. But the rest of it? Fairly plausible in one way or another, though extreme worst case scenario combined in such a way to all happen at once.

[Bumblebee]

41. An MSNBC headline: Bush visits region, eyes new storm

here's a true leader for you -- eye to eye with an impending hurricane! Whose eye do you think will prove stronger?

[Rainscents]

43. Jeff Gannon?

[Gruenemann]

44. Why, our Beloved Leader!

He will still be standing tall unblinking when Rita peters out somewhere in Canada!

[Bumblebee]

51. and he won't even sweat! (or we won't see it because he'll be all wet

but then he is all wet every day.

[barb162]

48. I am not going to watch the damned news the next few days

I can't handle this....

[Bluebear]

50. What would the impact on Dallas be?

If it reaches the shore as a cat 4, would Dallas experience cat. 1 level hurricane conditions as it travels inland?

[Silverhair]

63. Dallas area would get some badly needed rain.

Winds would be about the same as the spring storms that we get.

[demo dutch]

54. Cat 4 overnight, get ready for Cat 5 heading straight for Crawford, TX

[Silverhair]

64. Nope. Look at a map of Texas.

Crawford is about 200 miles inland. By the time it gets there it will be down to about the same power as our spring storms.

[Silverhair]

70. You are wishing.

Crawford is about 200 miles inland. By the time it gets up here, it will be a lot of rain with some wind.

[Zynx]

56. Better not hit Galveston.

First off, that would be a total mess for a good portion of the island, even though the island is well above sea level as well as hurting Houston badly too.

Secondly, on a lighter note, that means hurricanes will have destroyed the second of my family's two Gulf vacation spots after Katrina wiped out Biloxi and New Orleans.

[phusion]

67. Shit -- Will it go to Cat. 5???

It still has a couple of days to go and a huge swath of warm Gulf to cross.