Gulf of Mexico has become the perfect place to breed # 5 Hurricanes

[Quixote1818]

With water temperatures in the upper 80's and low 90's and not low 80's which is normal, every Hurricane to enter the Gulf of Mexico is likely to strengthen and become a class 4 or 5 storm unless wind sheer rips off the top of the storm.

Consider this! Between 1900 and 1950 Their were only 4 Cat. 5 Storms hitting the US. But from 1951 to 2005 their have been 22 Cat. 5 Storms with five in just the past 15 years. So in 15 years we have had more Cat 5 Storms then they had over a 50 year period for the first half of the last Century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hurricanes


I was listening to Drudge make fun of Global warming as he talked about deadly storms from a hundred years ago. What he failed to mention is that the number of major Hurricanes in the past 25 years has increased dramatically! Not to mention I believe Katrina's pressure was the LOWEST ever recorded! In the early part of the 1900's the US might go 5 or ten years without a major Hurricane, now they are coming practically every few weeks.

Global warming is most definitely impacting Hurricane season and if the Gulf of Mexico's water temps are in the 90's year after year after year then the amount of damage to coastal city's in TX, LA, MS, AL and Florida will absolutely skyrocket from hear on out. It pisses me off that Drudge manipulates the statistics to down play the effects of global warming. We have entered a new time when number 5 Hurricanes will be the norm rather than the exception.

[Verve]

1. Global Warming doesn't exist.

Our prez says so.:sarcasm:

[Skink]

2. Try this on for size. Cat. 6....

:scared:

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. What would that look like?

[Skink]

8. Biblical. The rapture in technicolor..

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. eek!

[tjdee]

I was thinking that the other day....

As soon as it's in the Gulf, say hi to five.

:scared:

[burythehatchet]

5. this is where I get so many mexed missages

on the one hand people say its global warming, yet on the other hand some people say its because of gays. I just don't know what to believe. Ellen is from New Orleans after all.

[StClone]

3. Since Gilbert

When Gilbert tore towards the Yucatan in '88 it had the lowest barometric pressure recorded in the Western Hemisphere (second lowest ever in the Atlantic). I think Gilbert was the start of the super Cyclones. Drudge is a complete fraud and his site only attracts the reaffirmation minded.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

[AspenRose]

11. I remember Gilbert

They cancelled the A&M/Alabama football game due to Gilbert.....funny what you remember. Bryan/College Station was drenched and there were hurricane parties everywhere.

Gosh, that was 1988? now I feel old *sigh*

[hootinholler]

4. This thing jumped from TS to Cat 2 in less than 8 hours!

That water is hot! You can see it organize on the loops, amazing.

IIRC, K was the second lowest barametric pressure recorded.

-Hoot

[jobycom]

7. That's not right

There have only been three Cat 5s to hit the US coast--Camille, the 1935 Florida Keys, and Andrew (and Andrew was an honorary Cat 5). So there couldn't have been four before 1950 and 22 after it to "hit the US" as you said.

Most of the Cat 5s don't hit land as a Cat 5, and the ability to detect a Category Five before it hits land has increased dramatically since the 50s. Now we see them by satelite as depressions and can measure their speed and size from creation to landfall or dissolution. In the early part of the century we didn't know about them unless they hit land somewhere, and somewhere in between then and now we were still hit or miss on detecting them. That accounts for some of the increase. A lot of the Cat 5s we measure now wouldn't have been detected by 1900 methods.

So we don't know for sure that this is unheard of. There's a lot of discussion on it. The weather experts were predicting a couple of years ago that there would be a dramatic upswing in hurricane intensity and frequency in the coming years, based only on hurricane cycles. So some of this was predicted, even, without considering global warming.

[Quixote1818]

12. You are splitting hairs. I didn't say they hit land as a Cat 5

I just said they were Class five at one point. Here is the chart I got the information from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hurricanes

Category 5s
Becoming a Category 5 (sustained windspeeds greater than 155 mph) is achieved on a regular basis in the Western Pacific but is rare in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. Since 1851, only 26 Atlantic hurricanes are known to have reached Category 5 and only nine made landfall while at this intensity.

Cat 5 1900 to 1949

The Lake Okeechobee Hurricane* - 1928
The Bahamas Hurricane - 1932
The Labor Day Hurricane* - 1935
The Great New England Hurricane - 1938
The Fort Lauderdale Hurricane - 1947

Cat 5 1950 to 2005


Hurricane Dog - 1950
Hurricane Easy - 1951
Hurricane Janet* - 1955
Hurricane Cleo - 1958
Hurricane Donna - 1960
Hurricane Ethel - 1960
Hurricane Carla - 1961
Hurricane Hattie - 1961
Hurricane Beulah - 1967
Hurricane Camille* - 1969
Hurricane Edith* - 1971
Hurricane Anita* - 1977
Hurricane David* - 1979
Hurricane Allen - 1980
Hurricane Gilbert* - 1988
Hurricane Hugo - 1989
Hurricane Andrew** - 1992
Hurricane Mitch - 1998
Hurricane Isabel - 2003
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
Hurricane Katrina - 2005

[jobycom]

13. Then you're still comparing hurricanes "that hit the US" before 1950

with hurricanes that just existed after 1950. After 1950 (not sure the exact history) we could detect hurricanes and measure them with satelite imagery. We didn't miss them. Before 1950 we couldn't. All of the Cat 5s listed before 1950 hit land or close to land, and were measured there. They weren't measuring them out to see. If Katrina had hit in 1910, it would not have been listed as a Cat 5.

So the numbers are hard to compare. If you compare just those that made landfall, there have been more since 1950 (3 to 7), but most of those were bunched between 69 and 79. There have only been two since then (Gilbert and Andrew) and one of those was not measured as a Cat 5 (They decided ten years later to make it a Cat 5 based on property damage, not actual measurements). There have been none since 1992.

Just looking at those classified at any time as a Cat 5, they've been petering off. We've had three in the last seven years, four in the last ten years, five in the last fifteen years. There were eight between 1950 and 1965, and eight betwee 1955 and 1970. There were nine in the twenty years between 1960 to 1980, there were four in the twenty years between 80 and 2000.

We have had three in three years, but looking at your chart, there were four in just two years in 1960-1.

It's too soon to say this is something abnormal that most be due to massive global changes. So far, nothing is out of the ordinary. Two more Cat 5s this year would tie us with 1960-1. If this continues for a couple of years, that would be abnormal. So far it's just a normal cycle.

Even in intensity--Katrina at its worst was not the worst storm measured, and by landfall it wasn't as bad as 1938, Camille or Gilbert.

[jayctravis]

10. Interesting map.

Does seem like the storm loves to follow the warm water.

Up here in the Midwest we're having the coolest summer ever...I imagine the pressure from the storm pulls air down form the north.

We've had a couple of spectacular lightning and thunder storms, some power lines have gotten down, but they've generally done a good job keeping it up. Our local news was right on top of showing exactly where the storm was. Tonight I suddenly found myself driving in a part of the neighborhood that was pitch black -- no traffic lights or streetlights and many people didn't realize they were missing intersections without stopping.

My dad lives on a lake about 30 miles away and said it was the second worst storm he'd experienced there since 1989. They didn't have time to bring in all the outdoor stuff it blew up so fast...and the weather for a couple weeks alternates humid heat (normal September weather) strange chills and weather activity. When the weather calms down it is the most beautiful blue sky sunny day you can imagine.