11 PM NOAA discussion: Rita becoming CAT 5 "a distinct possibility"

[Bluebear]

Just in case Bush tries that "No one could have anticipated" shit again.....


THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210311.shtml

[Quixote1818]

1. Two Cat. 5's in a three week period is unprecedented!

From 1900 to 1950 their were only 4 Cat 5 Storms recorded. Now we are talking two in a three week period??? Wow!!

[Bluebear]

2. But Domenci says anyone who believs in global warming is "nuts"

[tridim]

3. We might be in a global climate change spike

Like the last one during the ice age. :scared:

Check out the temperature spike about 10,000 years ago..


TIA, can you calculate the odds of two cat 4/5's in 3 weeks for us?

[Bluebear]

4. Stop! The earth is only 3000 years old.

[txindy]

10. Then we popped it into the microwave on HIGH HEAT

;)

That is one seriously disturbed wingnut in that picture. :scared:

[Donailin]

6. Hurricanes are terrorists

Who needs to be worried about OBL when mother nature can sufficiently kick our ass.

While this storm hits the gulf coast on Saturday, we will be flooding the WH simultaneously.

The Hurricane will get all the coverage.

I wonder where the asshat will be that day anyway. .

[mshasta]

9. mother nature is try to tell them something...

global warming...

[Feron]

5. What a local meteorologist said about Cat. 5 storms...

When Katrina was looming, a local meteorolgist said that storms of that intensity normally cannot maintain it; therefore, they weaken. Hurricane Katrina weakened to a Category 4 before landfall.

The hurricane that Louisiana got in 2002* was a Category 4 and rapidly weakened to a 2 right before landfall. I hope that happens for whoever ends up getting it.



*name escapes me at the moment because they all blend together LOL

[Jamison]

7. I would agree with that possibility.

Have you seen the water surface temps there in the gulf? It's like a giant hot tub!

[mnhtnbb]

8. Jim Cantore on Weather Channel

just threw his papers on the desk and said he couldn't believe some of the computer models of the storm--as in--hell is coming our way.