NHC Public Advisory Number 14 (next one at 2:00 a.m. EDT)

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 210248
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS...
...CHANGES MADE TO FLORIDA WARNINGS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...
NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE RITA AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ALL AREAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 210311
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103
KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY
WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH
EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...
WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER
...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR
6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL
...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
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000
WTNT73 KNHC 210230
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.4N 87.5W 45 X X X 45 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 10 12
24.6N 89.4W 13 14 X 1 28 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 12 12
25.1N 91.4W X 14 7 1 22 GALVESTON TX X X 1 12 13
MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 FREEPORT TX X X X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W 1 1 X X 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 13 13
MMSO 238N 982W X X X 6 6 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 11 11
MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 11 11
MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 X 2 GULF 29N 85W X 1 X 1 2
KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 3 4 2 9
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 89W 1 9 5 2 17
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 91W X 3 11 4 18
PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 93W X X 8 9 17
MOBILE AL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 13 15
GULFPORT MS X X 2 6 8 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 13 14
BURAS LA X 1 6 5 12 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 10 12
NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 8 11

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[Dudley_DUright]

1. "STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY."

:scared:

[Penndems]

2. It scares the bejeezus out of me, too

If I lived on the Texas Gulf Coast, I'd be in full hurricane evacuation mode by now.