Some good news for New Orleans - Re Rita

[DoYouEverWonder]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/024155W_sm.gif

Some good news for New Orleans at least. The latest projections show Hurricane Rita heading a little more to the west and now New Orleans is outside of the zone in the 5 day projections. In the meantime, it still looks like Texas is in for a big hit.

[LittleClarkie]

1. I must be lousy at projections

Because the moving satellite pictures look to me like the thing is skirting Cuba. I wonder why it curves up instead of heading straight west (sorry Mexico, not wishing anything on your guys.)

[intheflow]

10. Prevailing winds from the west.

I'm not an expert on weather by any stretch, but I noticed that's what made Katrina turn from a straight westerly path to a northeasterly path.

[jody]

2. Disagree, Rita is turning more to the East since 2PM EDT Tuesday. n/t

[DoYouEverWonder]

3. The map above is the latest projection

and was issued at 11:00 PM Tues. Rita is now tracking further away from NO then they had projected earlier.

It's not just the hurricane itself but also the systems coming down from the north that also impact the path. Apparently there's a big high coming down from the N - NE that will push Rita further west and away from NO.

[CascadeTide]

4. check out this projection published at the same time

not quite as rosey, gives new orleans an 11% chance of a hit, galveston only has a 13% chance

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT3+shtml/210230.shtml

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. Dupe post

[DoYouEverWonder]

8. They must have just updated

New Orleans is now down to 9%, which is very low compared to the rest of the chart.



CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.7N 88.7W 41 X X X 41 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 4 9 13
25.2N 90.8W 20 8 1 X 29 GALVESTON TX X X 6 8 14
25.9N 92.8W 2 18 3 1 24 FREEPORT TX X X 6 9 15
MMSO 238N 982W X X 2 6 8 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 6 9 15
MMTM 222N 979W X X 1 4 5 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 9 14
MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 7 7 14
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 1 1 3 5
PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 2 7 3 2 14
MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W X 10 5 3 18
GULFPORT MS X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 93W X 5 10 4 19
BURAS LA X 1 4 5 10 GULF 28N 95W X 1 11 5 17
NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 6 9 GULF 27N 96W X 1 11 5 17
NEW IBERIA LA X X 4 8 12 GULF 25N 96W X 3 9 4 16

[malaise]

9. Rita is heading for Texas

She started off moving West then swerved WNW for a while and headed back on the West track since yesterdat afternoon. NOLA will be spared this time.

[jody]

5. Understand but I was referring to the change from 2 pm EDT forecast. n/t

[LittleClarkie]

6. The little dance it's doing around Cuba would seem to bear you out