Rita tenth-largest hurricane of all time.

[benburch]

Dropsonde pressure 928 mb.

Speculation that it might already be near Cat-5 strength.

This one will kill.

[maine_raptor]

1. 928mb and still a lot of very warm water to travel over

:scared:

[benburch]

2. We may find out if hurricane intensity is self-limiting.

I don't think that it is, though.

[benburch]

4. Recon says 934 mb.

So maybe the dropsonde was registering a little lower than it ought.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

24. Interesting point

I recall some news tidbit to the effect that Katrina was self-limiting: the wind on the ocean surface churned it up so much some of the deeper cool water moved up, thus cooling the surface and weakening it.

[Rainscents]

3. One thing, I really notice about Rita... She didn't waste anytime picking

up speeds... She went from tropical storm to CAT 4 in matter of 24 hours! This is what scare me the most.

[CottonBear]

6. The surface temperature of the water in the Gulf is 87 degrees F.

That is really warm. Warm water is hurricane fuel. Can you say "Global Warming?" The water near the Texas coast is cooler , but that may not make a difference when the hurricane is almost to landfall.
:scared:

[bluethruandthru]

5. Does it look like an embryo?

If so and it strikes Texas...I wonder what the "message" is?

[benburch]

7. That storms play no favorites...

and that "God" doesn't pay much attention to us.

[prole_for_peace]

10. i would say it would be punishing us for *.

wait...wasn't the whole sodemy law thing that went to SCOTUS from here? that is it.

[pointblank]

17. If we are going to think along those lines...

I would say it is because god is mad at *

[mattclearing]

32. Benburch is right, and you guys are as bad as Robertson. n/t

[pointblank]

18. Dupe, Sorry

[pointblank]

19. Dupe Sorry

[SpiralHawk]

26. The message is: we have an unstable kaptain at the helm of the

queasily listing Ship of State -- the S.S. ChimPee.

My Bad Ass Cocaine Habit for TANG AWOL.
My Pet Goat for 9/11.
My Precious 5-Week Vacation for Katrina.

What will Bush's excuse be for being AWOL this time?

[prole_for_peace]

8. great. the upper part of her projected path puts her on top of me.

and i am freakin thrilled. just got back from buying water, candles, granola bars and such. i have a gas stove so i can cook when i loose electicity. and i WILL loose electricity. mine goes out if it even looks like rain. going to the library tonight for some good books too. this sucks.

[benburch]

12. If it tracks north do not ride it out.

Get at least 100 miles inland.

[Lochloosa]

14. Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles from the center

and there is a dramatic decrease in wind speed as you move away from the center. Hope this helps. Let's just hope it doesn't have one of those "jogs" to the north.

[benburch]

16. This storm will grow.

Do not expect it to remain this small long.

[Barbra Whiner]

35. Only 2 Things Are Possible

"You either get bigger, or you get smaller.  Nothing
stays the same."

Abbie Hoffman  

[Lochloosa]

25. Ok...it's official...run. As of 1:20 pm. she became a Cat 5

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[Feron]

29. You may also want to consider buying...

solar-powered landscaping/garden lights. I ripped mine out of the ground and found them wonderful for lighting rooms at night. You can't read books by them ,but they have enough light to navigate your way around. I had mine in bedrooms and the bathroom.

Another thing I did was put one in a window to ward off looters. I figured if they know someone is home, then they will pass you by. Nobody bothered me, so I assume it worked. :)

[gasperc]

30. good luck stay safe

I hope you didn't take my post about the hurricane heading right for Crawford the wrong way. I as well as many others found it extremely peculiar that it was making a bee-line for Crawford.

[prole_for_peace]

33. no problem.

i just wish *'s ass would have to pack up his shit and get out of the way of some damn storm. jerk. i would also like it to rip the roof right off his "ranch"

[spanone]

9. The GREAT irony is that bush* ran on a platform that global warming

was BAD science. John Lennon might call this instant Karma.

[opihimoimoi]

11. Bad Science??? No such thing....Who da guy listen to anyhows...?

[hedda_foil]

13. What's the possibility it will diminish while over the Gulf?

Is it possible that the system could start to lose its coherency during its long trip to land or is it just going to keep picking up steam? I agree that there's no reason to assume that Cat 5 is an upper limit on the physics of storms. We just haven't experienced anything worse yet. If it can only get stronger, could we be talking about the equivalent of Cat 7 by the time it makes landfall?

This really is terrifying.

[Lochloosa]

15. Not going to happen....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805T_sm2+gif/145605P_sm.gif

[DrDan]

20. how do you read this chart?

Looks to me like only a 25% chance of a cat 4 or 5 if it lasts for another 3 days. Same probability for a cat 1 or cat 3.

Am I reading this right?

[maine_raptor]

21. Actually it looks to me as if

the numbers say once it reaches Cat 5 (the 50% point), it has those chances of dropping within that time frame.

[Lochloosa]

23. Ok...here goes

The question was will it dissipate. Looking at the left side of the chart there is less than a 2% chance of that happening over the next 72 hours. Now, looking at the right side of the chart there is a 65% chance that it will stay a Cat 4 or 5 the next 24 hours, a 50% chance to maintain Cat 4 or 5 the next 36 hours and a 40% over the next 48 hours. And so on....

It is hard for a hurricane to maintain a Cat 4 over a long period of time and even harder for a Cat 5 considering the changes in the eye wall. It tends to collapse and reform during it's lifespan. If it collapses, it's hard for it to regain enough strength to reach Cat 5. This is normal for large hurricanes.



Class dismissed.

[dogday]

28. Rita is a Cat 5

And she is coming to Houston to whip my butt....

[SheilaT]

22. For what it's worth,

they only rate storms as high as Category 5. The last few days I've heard people casual refer to Category 6, but at present there isn't any such creature. Maybe if global warming really does start producing storms that have sustained winds above 175-180mph, they'd start having a category 6, but so far there's no such thing. Let alone a Category 7, which would, I suspect, require sustained wind speeds well above 200mph, but that's just my guess based on the wind speeds for Cat1-5.
Link: http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/hurricanerelated/HURRICANECATEGORIES.htm

[hedda_foil]

27. Thank all of you hurricane wonks for your analysis.

Living in the midwest all my life, I've been hurricane-ignorant for far too long. I really appreciate your help.

hedda

[maine_raptor]

31. Think of a Hurricane as a tornado, but

smaller in intensity, but bigger in damage area. Slower in movement and with a helluva lot more water.

[Barbra Whiner]

34. Rita Phobia

I don't see a good reason to get all excited just because a
hurricane is as strong as 5 cats.