Rita is definately turning northwest..

[trekbiker]

too soon to tell but its starting to look like it will hit Louisiana west of N.O.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

[Arugula Latte]

1. Crap!!!!!

Did I mention crap!!!!!

[dogday]

2. Can I just say crap with you....

it turns right to me, the bitch....

[proud patriot]

5. Crap crap crap

:-(

[wakeme2008]

3. these tracks

are normal on the money

[trekbiker]

8. it definately turned during the last few hours. If it straitens out

from here on it should follow the track in your diagram.

[QC]

11. It wobbled. They do that. They always do that.

They wobble in one direction, and then in another. Over time the course generally averages out. It's really irresponsible to see a slight wobble in a satellite loop and post a hysterical headline based on it. There's enough to be scared of right now without coming up with new, nonexistent horrors.

[trekbiker]

23. Irresponsible? Hysterical? new, nonexistent horror?

I wouldn't call this a "non-existent horror". It's going to be a tragedy no matter where it hits land.

I guess I'm just not a hysterical hurricane expert like you.

[QC]

27. Don't be so pissy.

I was simply trying to point out to you that it's normal for the eye to wobble, so there's no point in scaring the shit out of people over it.

And no, I'm not an expert and make no claims to be one, but I have watched enough of these things not to mistake a wobble for a change in course.

[phusion]

4. Katrina was first projected to hit the FL panhandle

if I remember correctly.

[jobycom]

7. You do. But they did call it right about three days out, which is rare

Or used to be rare. We'll see how they do on Rita.

[QC]

6. Don't make too much of a wobble. n/t

[flowomo]

9. no models that I know of say that.....

are you just guessing by looking at that loop, or do you have a confirm from somwhere?

"RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/212053.shtml

MODELS HERE:


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

[jobycom]

15. Did you look at the loop in his link?

It's angling northward, if that loop is right. Hurricanes don't usually look at models, they just kind of go where they want.

Hurricanes often hook eastward just before landfall. I really don't like the look of that satelite loop. I like your model better. I hope Rita does, too.

[flowomo]

20. hurricanes don't "go where they want"...

they follow "steering currents".... and while Rita could end up in any of a nunber of places, the models agree that right now, it's Texas, not Louisiana.

[jobycom]

32. Geeze

It was rhetoric. Models are often wrong. More often than not. I've been caught in a strong Category 3 (Elena) before because I listened to the models instead of common sense.

Hurricanes are steered by a lot of factors, some stronger than others. There are no strong fronts or pressure systems pushing this thing. Since there aren't, its path is more unpredictable.

I'm aware that forces steer hurricanes. I'm also aware that it's not always clear which ones will.

[flowomo]

33. you're right.... things change....

Katrina was knocked off course at the last minute by a high from the Midwest. Didn't mean to grouse at you... I just thought the original post here was alarmist guesswork. The science says Texas right now and that's the best info we've got. :)

[geomon666]

22. These things wobble like a frisbee.

Please, unless you have something official from NOAA or a valid news source, don't post things like this. People are scared enough as it is. We don't need armchair meteorologists weighing in.

[trekbiker]

24. I'll "weigh in" when I want. Better to be prepared than scared..

if I had relatives anywhere between NOLA and Texas I would be on the phone with them now.

[geomon666]

28. Yes you should be prepared

But when you post crap like "It's definitely going north", that hurts the preparedness effort. What if a person hears that and decides not to prepare because "It's going north"? You have no idea what you're talking about so please don't pretend that you do.

[trekbiker]

29. read you own post and tell me who is being alarmist

when did I say "It's definately going north"

and who in thier right mind would "decide not to prepare" because of a post on a political message board.

get a clue

[geomon666]

37. Are you on acid or something? Read your own post.

The question is not 'who in their right mind would decide not to prepare' but who in their right mind would make a judgment call on the direction of a tropical cyclone based on a split second interpretation of an eye shift?

[trekbiker]

34. once again you misquote me..

and why the evacuation orders for NOLA?? everyone from the Texas/Mexico border to NOLA should be prepared to evacuate or be in the process of evacuating. if you dont like people on this board discussing the possibilities then get the hell off this thread

[geomon666]

38. I didn't misquote at all. That is such a laughable claim.

Rita is definately turning northwest

Did you or did you not write that?

And I don't mind people discussing the possibilities but that's not what you did. It's a shame you can't even admit that.

[melody]

30. been there, done that

We've already done the phone calling.

This is still just a matter of percentage of possibility at this point - it's a long time till Saturday.

[jobycom]

31. Sorry, I don't agree.

I'm in Texas, and my family is in Gulfport and Louisiana (many were in New Orleans), so this isn't a game to me. I've watched hurricanes all my life, and been through quite a few. I've seen a lot of hurricanes not obey the models and projected paths.

People in the path should watch this storm and decide for themselves how accurate the models are. How would you feel if you told everyone it will hit Texas and then it does hit Louisiana? People need to see the possibilities, to plan what they are going to do, and to be prepared as far out as possible.

That's why we're talking about it.

The models are several hours behind the data. The models have shown this thing hitting anywhere from Louisiana to Brownsville at various times, with their most likely point of landfall having moved from western Louisiana to Galveston and now to Corpus Christi. The model will be adjusted again, and if this is a northward turn, the models will shift back towards the east.

As I said, I hope the models heading it to Texas are right. I hope it hits just south of the line it's predicted on now, because that's reasonably unpopulated. But ignoring what it seems to be doing in favor of models known for being hit or miss isn't going to help anyone.

As for scaring people, I'm scared. The last one wiped out my home town. People all along the possible route for this thing should be scared. People who don't get scared don't watch it, they don't evacuate when they should. That's the worst thing.

[acmejack]

10. Rita could equal $5 gas

snip>

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

snip>

[greblc]

36. Count on it...

[I_Will]

12. I've watched enough Weather Channel to remember...

that the greatest impact of the counter-clockwise rotating hurricane is the northeast quadrant. If this barrels in "west of NOLA" or between the TX border and NOLA, wouldn't that the worst possible scenario for NOLA at least (and a somewhat of a re-run for MS/AL, given how wide it is)?

[Kenroy]

13. It doesn't look like it'll hit LA

with any force. The concern is that it's moving straight toward Galveston.

[Silverhair]

14. Eye wobble. Not signifigant. NT

[FlaGranny]

16. Wobble?

No use getting all worked up over a wobble one way or the other. The 5 p.m. update says it will stay on the same path.

[cassiepriam]

17. Might be time to plug up the levees......fast

[trekbiker]

18. these things ever just stop in thier tracks and peter out?

[Mutley]

19. The models are still showing it making landfall in TX.

[NYdemocrat089]

21. I was thinking the same thing just a few minutes ago.

It deffinatly is heading farther north. I don't think it will hit NOLA again...but I think it could hit anywhere from Houston to Western LA.

[tkmorris]

25. Wobble

Very common once a storm gets this organized. It's as if the eye feature is rotating around a central point within itself that isn't quite dead center. Gives the illusion of turning.

Here's a good visual. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html Using the check boxes overlay the forecast path on the map and you will see that it is almost dead on.

[Texasgal]

26. It's not going to hit NOLA

WHY?

Becuase there is a HIGH PRESSURE ridge over most of Texas right now, a cool front is coming out of the north and is moving that high pressure.... where? Right spack dab over LA. They will be dry as a bone.

That's why TEXAS is going to get the brunt of this storm.

[RebelOne]

35. It is entirely possible. When I lived in South Florida

in the '60s, we were hit by Hurricane Cleo, which was a category 1 storm. According to the hurricane center, the storm was going to just travel up the coast and not touch on any land. But all of a sudden, it turned into the coast. And wham! we were hit hard. There was quite a bit of damage in South Florida because everyone believed the hurricane experts and did not prepare for the storm.