NOAA is calling for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). This forecast reflects NOAA's highest confidence of an above-normal hurricane season since their outlooks began in August 1998.
.
The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median.
.
The predicted seasonal totals include the considerable activity that has already occurred prior to this update (7 tropical storms and 2 major hurricanes). Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect an additional 11-14 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The expected ACE range during August-November is 110%-200% of the median. These very high levels of activity are comparable to those seen during August-November 2003 and 2004. Given the forecast that the remainder of the season will be very active, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
The predicted nearly 100% chance of an above-normal season is higher than the 70% likelihood indicated in NOAA's pre-season outlook issued May 16th. This increased certainty reflects the fact that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring hurricane formation that were predicted in May are now in place. These conditions, combined with the high levels of activity already seen, make an above-normal season nearly certain.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.htmlvia DailyKos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/21/22510/4362What's the point of all this? It shows that Al Gore and the scientists were right, and Bush was wrong: Global Warming IS happening, and fixing it should be JOB #1 right now.
Bush and Cheney are anti-science and they are going to destroy the economy and the environment.