HURRICANE RITA: Galveston/Houston "On the Ground" Reports

[GOPAgainstGW]

Thought I would start this thread for Galveston/Houston, and surrounding areas, "on the ground" Hurricane Rita reports. I live in Houston, with property in Galveston. This is the latest email-report I received from my girlfriend who has been through many hurricanes over the years with me.

######

2:00AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

Hurricane Rita: Cat 5
Maximum Sustained Winds: 175
Wind Gusts To: 215
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 898 MB - 26.52 Inches (I)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

Comments:
Good News: This is the first report in the last 12 hours that Rita as not intensified. It's still a massive hurricane! Reminds me of the very deadly Hurricane Mitch in 1998.
Bad News: Large change in track model projections, moves Rita landfall again to the east with Galveston/Houston a dead-on direct hit. The forecast tracks model has gotten crazy again with Rita’s recent wobble and changes in eastern upper level steering currents.
Good News: Solid model projections agreement that Rita will decrease in strength before landfall.
Bad News: Rita will have to decrease significantly in strength to keep the west end of Galveston Co., where all the new home development is, (including my boss & friends) from getting totally wiped off the map. Unlike “old” Galveston, they have no seawall protection.

Good News: My boss and his convoy of friends/other Galveston beach homeowners are getting ready to leave Galveston and head home to Dallas. I laid out a good route plan for them using Transtar to avoid having to go through Houston, where even at 2:00 am in the morning, feeder traffic North out of Houston is extremely heavy.

Many Comsat reports of Gas stations with no gas, and grocery stores completely empty/sold out in inner and North Houston. Thursday daylight hours in Houston will be living hell with people trying to get out of harms way

---------------
Note: Check out the GFS (AVN) projection track. It shows Rita circling back and nailing Gal/Hou a second time. Wild

Latest Hurricane Rita Images:

[Skittles]

1. please please let all the people get out

please

[GOPAgainstGW]

2. Houston(Harris Co.) has 5 Million People metro-4 Times Size of New Orleans

[Skittles]

26. I have lived in Texas almost 30 years

have done TDYs to Houston

[illuminaughty]

3. Just talked to family who live near Corrigan

Highway 287 is bumper to bumper. They're saying it might take 24 hours to drive from Houston to Dallas. They just spent 7 hours going from Houston to Corrigan.

My brother is in Kinder, Louisiana and they are evacuating. He usually goes to the house in Corrigan. Family in Corrigan is pretty worried about this one...even though it's inland a ways.

Please be careful down there and thanks for the thread.

[GOPAgainstGW]

4. Check Out Houston Real-Time Traffic Maps & Cams

Houston Transtar - Houston Real-Time Traffic Map & Cams

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

[misanthrope]

9. The only good thing about a hurricane...

...is it's the only natural disaster you can outrun on a bicycle.

Heavy traffic can still get you out of the way in plenty of time.

Besides, I'd think heading to San Antonio would be the best direction.

[punpirate]

13. This (and Katrina) have me thinking about...

... a Reagan-era nuclear attack evacuation plan that the Reaganites wanted comment on and approval by the mayors and managers of the country's largest cities. Asked if they could evacuate their cities on fifteen minutes' notice within a day or so, the mayors, almost universally, just laughed at them.

That was civil defense in the Reagan years. Doesn't seem to have changed much. It's just not possible to move millions of people on the spur of the moment and do it quickly.

[KeepItReal]

24. My friend took 14 Hours on I-45 North just to get to the Woodlands!

They have screwed up evacuation routes.

I-45 North is open, but I-45 South was not being used "Contra-flow" at all.

They tried to open up the HOV lanes on 45 North, but construction messed up flows somehow and they had to close the HOV lanes on 45 North.

This is terrible... Houston news last night didn't have a clue (at least their websites didn't).

Listen live here:

http://www.click2houston.com/index.html?refresh=1200

[Synnical]

76. Another Live Feed from Houston Media

http://www.khou.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=live

click2houston.com keeps timing out. The above does not.

[fudge stripe cookays]

82. I know last summer...

when a friend and I went to the texas Democratic Convention, there was some honking huge road construction along the way, somwwhere north of Huntsville that was a pain THEN.

I can only imagine what it might be like now.

FSC

[GOPAgainstGW]

5. Live Galveston Web Cams

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

Matagorda Bay Cam - (Many times mentioned by NOAA-NHC as possible direct Hurr Rita hit west of Galveston)

http://www.matagordabay.com/

[Nothing Without Hope]

6. Recommended - let's keep this updated with the latest.

Here is the NOAA satellite images page, which has a variety of choices. Some of the key ones are updated every half hour. During night hours, when visible light doesn't show much, I use the water vapor image; the loop from the Storm Floater #1 is focussed right on it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[GOPAgainstGW]

7. Excellent Hurricane Rita Monitoring Sites

I use many different Hurricane tracking websites to supplement the National Hurricane Center's Site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Here's several excellent ones:

NOAA "Thumbnail" Popup Storm Tracker - Excellent:
http://www.stormtracker.noaa.gov/stormtracker-rita.htm

National Hurricane Center Satellite Images:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

This is an excellent consolidated information and maps site for monitoring Hurricane Rita:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18

Good consolidated Hurr Rita info at WeatherUnderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

This is an excellent site for monitoring NOAA's National Data Bouy Center (NDBC)
(You can learn much about Hurricanes watching individual bouy data as hurricanes approach.)
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/surface/interactive.shtml



NDBC Homepage: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
NDBC Special Hurr Rita Site: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=24.6N&lon1=87.2W&dist=250&time=3

Note: Watch NDBC Bouy 42002 as Hurr Rita runs over it. You will see some wild stuff, if it doesn't fail! Also Watch Bouy 42001. Hurricane Katrina ran over Bouy 42003 and knocked it out. First time I have ever seen this happen even with Hurricane Ivan last year, which registered the largest waves ever recorded by a Gulf Hurricane.

A lot of the pros monitor this site for upper level hurricane steering currents. Click the tabs at the top for the different layers:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

A lot of the pros use this site to monitor Gulf Of Mexico surface temperatures:
Rutgers Marine & Coastal Sciences
Satellite Images - Sea Surface Temperature of Gulf of Mexico
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0
Homepage: http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst¬humbs=0

Live NOAA GOES-12 Hurricane Rita Images. These pics are awesome! Updated every 30 minutes:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Hurricane Rita NHC Gulf of Mexico - Visible Loop (Wait for it to load):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

Houston Chronicle Newspaper Continuing Hurricane Rita Coverage:
(Chronicle is the only newspaper in town)
Homepage: http://www.chron.com/
Special Hurr Rita Section:
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/rita/index.html
Chronicle Science Guy Blog:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

[Nothing Without Hope]

11. excellent links - will make it easier to know what is happening in the

air and on the ocean. Bookmarked and

:kick:

[GOPAgainstGW]

8. Awesome Hurr Rita Pic - AutoUpdates Every 30 Minutes

[brokensymmetry]

12. Kicked & Nominated. n/t

.

[GOPAgainstGW]

10. Hurricane Rita Real Time Montage Track Image-Cool!

[GOPAgainstGW]

14. Local Houston Expert Field Report - From Bad to Terrible

September 21, 2005 - From bad to worse, I am afraid The current track for Rita is just about as bad as you could imagine for the Houston-Galveston area.

Unless the storm turns south or north in the next 24 to 48 hours we are set up for a truly horrific event. I am not going to sugar-coast this, my friends. If the storm comes ashore as forecast, it would essentially be the worst-case scenario described here.

As a Houston resident and property owner, I am truly mortified right now. If you are under a mandatory evacuation order, you should heed it.

The storm has gone from potentially bad on Monday to terribly bad today. Tomorrow will have to bring better news, won't it?

One can only think the a city that opened its arms so wide to the victims of the truly catastrophic Katrina deserves a better fate. We shall see ...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

[GOPAgainstGW]

15. I'm Staying in Houston - Situation Report

I'm staying in Houston for Hurricane Rita along with some friends. My girlfriend relocated to Dallas. I have already closed in my beach rental home in Galveston last weekend. If Rita hits Galveston direct or on the "dirty side" of the hurricane, I know I can kiss my beach home bye-bye. We have already had a lot of beach erosion from storms the last two years along my area.

But if you live on exposed barrier Gulf Islands, it's your problem. I made the choice and it's my responsibility. I get so sick of "some people" thinking it's a God divine right to live on the beach and the Government owes them a handout to rebuilding their homes every time they get destroyed by nature.

I and 3 friends are staying in a very secure concrete building/condo with no southern exposure glass in NW Houston. We turned it into a command post last weekend. It's loaded out to the max with a large generator, fuel, computers and shortwave gear, fiber optics and sat-links, and lots of food and beer. We were already fixing it up because I had a lot of friends coming into Houston this weekend for the Motley Crue concert at the Toyota Center this Saturday night. Obviously it was cancelled yesterday.

Two of my friends are staying in downtown Houston in a concrete low level building with roof cams and a sat-link dish. Hopefully Rita will not eat their roof gear if we get a direct hit.

If Hurricane Rita hits Houston directly, the East side of the city, all the way down to Clear Lake (dumps into Galveston Bay) will get hammered hard, with significant flooding and destroyed homes. Same with far south Houston because it is basically sea level with no protection.

Clear Lake is highly developed with expensive homes and has the 2nd largest number of docked sailboats in the Country. If Hurricane Rita comes up Galveston Bay, damage in the Clear Lake Area will be MASSIVE! Same if Galveston Bay catches the "dirty side" of Hurr Rita. The Bay is huge but only has an average depth of 7 feet. Many refineries there, along with the major Houston Ship Channel and port. 2nd largest shipping port in the U.S. 2nd only to New Orleans and we have picked up a large amount of N.O. port business post-Katrina.

[Patiod]

40. Good luck to you

Hope you stay safe and your city is spared the worst

Scary stuff. :scared:

Surprising attitude about your Galveston house. Out here, people build multi-million dollar houses on tiny sandspits that have been completely leveled within living memory. Long Beach Island was almost completely wiped out in the 1960s, and now it's full of Architectural Digest mansions. And they fought and defeated New Jersey's effort to say "if your house is more than 50% destroyed, you can't rebuild."

[newspeak]

60. here's hoping that you and your friends will be safe

Do you have plenty of supplies? How about flooding? Is there any danger of flooding where you are? You know I think people would think more of dome homes that can withstand the high winds, people at least might not lose their structures. A man on the eastern coast built one after he lost his house from a hurricane. They can withstand the highwinds--the type that are made with a concrete like material. Please please be safe.

[GOPAgainstGW]

16. Hurr Rita: Texas Coast Nuclear Plant To Shut Down

Nuclear plant to shut down for Rita
2 Texas reactors built to stand up to Category 5 storm

CNN-Officials at a Texas nuclear power plant in the path of Hurricane Rita prepared Wednesday to shut down two reactors.

The South Texas Project plant serving 1 million customers is built on elevated ground in Bay City, 12 miles inland from the Texas coast. It is designed to withstand storm surges from Category 5 hurricanes.

"We have a specific plan in place on what to do with a hurricane approaching," spokesman Alan Mikus said. "Our plan calls for the complete shutdown of the plant in advance of the storm's arrival."

The two reactor containment buildings are made of 4-foot-thick steel-reinforced concrete walls -- strong enough to withstand a Category 5 storm, or the direct impact of a Boeing 767. They are two of the strongest buildings in Texas. "The plant is designed to withstand tornadic force winds, which are higher than hurricane force winds," Mikus said.

<snip>

Customers will not lose power during the shutdown because other power companies will pick up the load, the spokesman said. The nuclear plant itself will operate off power from other companies for cooling the fuel supply and spent fuel storage, he added.

If the power grid fails, Mikus said, on-site diesel generators will provide back-up power to maintain the proper cooling. Asked his biggest concern with Rita headed toward the region, Mikus said, "I don't know if we have any."

<snip>

The South Texas Project is the largest employer in the county, with about 1,300 workers. "Non-essential" workers are being asked not to come to work, and about 300 "essential" workers will ride out the storm at the plant, Mikus said.

Construction began at the plant in 1976, with the first reactor going into operation in 1988 and the second going online a year later. In addition to the 4-foot-thick walls of the containment buildings, each reactor is housed inside a carbon steel vessel with 6-inch-thick walls.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/21/rita.nuclear/

Note: Bay City, where the nuclear plant is located, is about 1.5 hours SW of Houston

[illuminaughty]

25. Thanks for these great links and info...now, you may think I'm wacko

and that's of little significance given the current scenario, but friends and family listen when I have dreams or feelings about something and I can't tell you how bad this one feels.

Over a year ago, I had a distinct dream about my being in New Orleans and seeing a wall of water. I happened to be in New Orleans when the tsunami hit, so I thought maybe this was an interpretation of my dream. Unfortunately, not. Even when CNN was saying N.O. had "dodged the bullet" after the storm, I knew it wasn't over.

My friends are used to this, but even they are creeped out at this point. Before I visited my family in Corrigan in July, I burned some songs at random. Even I wasn't sure why I chose them. Two songs I have continually played the last few weeks are "Bad Moon Rising" by Creedence and Glen Campbell's "Galveston". I hadn't heard that song in years. I figured it out last week and I so wanted to be wrong.
I have been sick and nervous since then. I'm just saying, please be careful. I haven't been to Galveston in 30 years, and this will sound crazy too, but I see something strange that involves roller coasters. I have no clue what that means.

I hope a miracle turns this thing around, but that doesn't seem likely.

[GOPAgainstGW]

32. Many Things Cannot be Explained in Life. On the Roller Coaster...

there is a new small Roller Coaster that one of the local developers installed in Galveston right on a pier over the Gulf. God knows where that will end up. Hurricane Rita will probably launch it all the way to Houston and it will destroy the Astrodome and the new football stadium or something. Maybe it will hit Papa Bush's house over in the Houston Tanglewood Edition, in the Galleria area. LOL.

[weiser]

120. illuminaughty, I had a similar a day before 9/11

I had just flown back home from Europe on 8/11 and I had a dream I was willingly diving straight into a massive bowl of fire. I splashed in and it was cold (to my amazement). My immediate reaction was to fly straight back out again, and ask my self what a stupid thing to do.

Didn't have a dream about RITA, but after Katrina, who needs dreams to know the danger!!

[GOPAgainstGW]

17. Map: Bush Land, Crawford, Texas - In Hurr Rita's CrossHair

[Silverhair]

23. Not any more. That is old info. Track has shifted well to East. NT

[althecat]

18. A look into the eye of rita - Nasa Modis Image.... (rotated 270 Degrees)

[GOPAgainstGW]

20. Reminds Me of My Hot Date Last Weekend, LOL - eom

[mshasta]

56. lol

reptilian eye...

[GOPAgainstGW]

19. Map: Houston/Gulf of Mexico Oil Producing Sites & Refineries

[Tesla]

21. Man, I'm gonna chop the trees down in the back yard and save that wood

to heat my house this winter!!!

Can you say $6 a gallon?

[katinmn]

35. Another view of the offshore rigs....

http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp

[GOPAgainstGW]

53. Thanks! - eom

[berni_mccoy]

45. Wow, that's an awesome pic

Thanks... Now I'm going to start working from home unless it's absolutely necessary for me to go in.

And I'm glad I have 2 acres of woods... I just better get that wood-stove installed!

[GOPAgainstGW]

22. Bush on TV - You Can't Make This Stuff Up!

The first natural disaster was when he was born.

And F-Lady Bush was a real help last week on the TV calling Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Corina twice in front of a bunch of N.O. people left totally homeless with nothing after the disaster destroyed their lives. Can't make that up either, LOL!

[ladylibertee]

27. Yup ! Hurricane Bush Hit 2000 and still "lingering" LOL

[GOPAgainstGW]

28. About Governor G.W. Bush - Some Texas History

Many people don't know this but the Texas Governor has very little power. Texas was started by a bunch of renegades and rebels and they didn't want the Gov having too much power when they drafted the Texas Constitution. The power was placed with the Commission's. So part of GW's problem in D.C. as Prez is the boy just didn't have any good training.

Many Texans liked Bush as a Governor. He was sure better than what we had in Governor Ann Richards. They liked him at first as Prez, but now many prominent Texans hate the damn guy.

[ladylibertee]

29. Well, now EVERYBODY except Laura and Pat Robertson hate the guy

[MoonRiver]

30. I thought Ann Richards was very popular.

I was really surprised when * ousted her. I know they pulled a slime job, but Texans seemed to like Ann.

[GOPAgainstGW]

33. A Biker and a Drunk She Fit Right In With Us Good 'Ol Boys but

not a good leader and not good at "working the money crowd" if you know what I mean. Besides if us GOB Republicans voted for Bush we thought we would get a new Dallas TV show or something, LOL!



Instead Bush did this to us:

[CAcyclist]

88. Even a republican against Bush

is still a republican and can't be expected to admire a Democrat like Ann Richards. Since Texas is a weak governor state, there's not much Bush could f^&k up anyway.

[newspeak]

61. well how about the two department heads he did appoint?

Head of housing and labor. I read both were in trouble and being investigated before he ran for pres. In housing, the woman's business was a construction firm and guess who got most of the business, plus overcharging. Then the man from labor gave retraining money willy-nilly to favored companies without them retraining anybody.

[fudge stripe cookays]

83. Let me respectfully say...

that as a woman and a big admirer of Ann Richards, I'm too much of a lady to tell you what I think of your attitude.

FSC

[Cha]

165. I knew that about

the Texas Governor not having much power..I know you're Gop and all but I find it hard to believe that bush was better than a real person by the name of Ann Richards.

I know they got her out with their Slimey Swift Boat SMear tactics, too.

[NJCher]

112. this was printed out

I started working with a new department this fall and on my first day, I walked in and this Bush/disaster shot was printed out and hanging at the front desk.




Cher

[GOPAgainstGW]

31. Rita: New Tracks Projections-Gal/Hou Direct Hit Then Poss Wild Curve

[GOPAgainstGW]

34. New Hurr Rita NHC 7:00 AM CDT Report: Cat 5 - 170/205 MPH

7:00AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 5
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 170 (D)
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 205
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 907 MB...26.78 Inches (I)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
(I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report)

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. AT 7 AM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
----------

GOPAgainstGW Comments: The upper level steering currents are really pushing Rita to the east, almost to the eastern side of Houston which would be a total disaster (See previous comments). Just have to see what happens this afternoon and after Rita goes through an eye wall replacement. Bottom line – The pros still don’t know what this monster bitch is going to do as to final approach track. The NHC needs to step up to the plate. Unlike Katrina, they have really been dropping the ball on Rita. Yesterday they acted like FEMA!

[GOPAgainstGW]

37. NDBC Bouy 42001 Report - Now 30 Ft Waves. This Party is Picking Up

NDBC Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.









Source: Conditions at 42001 as of 6:50 am CDT - 09/22/2005:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[HeeBGBz]

39. You mean the drop in air pressure?

It just fell off.

[carolinayellowdog]

36. My friend in Houston reports evacuation problems

Here's her email, just received. People are running out of gas on the evacuation route and this is interfering with traffic flow:

"Someone needs to get some kind of tankers of gas helicoptered in to get some gasoline to the cars stuck on the highway.

Only the military can do that. If they haven't started getting this off the ground and going already it might be too late. Hopefully Bill White, our mayor, is awake and working on contra-flowing a few highways by now -- as of right now they aren't. Seems like he should have heard what mayor Nagin was saying ...

I could have predicted this. Why can't people smarter than me and in charge do the same?"

[GOPAgainstGW]

38. Yelp, major problems start yesterday. Today will be HELL! - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

41. Fact: Since 1992, Houston Is A Formal Sanctuary City For Illegals

[GOPAgainstGW]

42. Fact: Over 90 Different Languages are Spoken in Houston. Highest in U.S.

[GOPAgainstGW]

43. Fact: BushCo Is Paying City/State $100 Day for Each Katrina Refuge Here...

plus expenses for their care and management.

[GOPAgainstGW]

50. .......

[soup]

44. Video and Audio Feeds

Excellent and informative thread GOPagainstGW. Thank you and all who have added to this.


Links to local video and audio feeds here:
http://www.weatherserver.net/hurricanecenter/

---

Webcams and info:
Matagorda Bay
http://www.matagordabay.com/

South Padre Island:
http://www.spadre.com/

Palacios:
http://www.dayonthebayservices.com/webcampal.htm

---

Before, during and after Hurricane Guides:
http://www.fema.gov/hazards/hurricanes/hurricaf.shtm (yeah, I know, but they should be good for something)

http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_587_,00.html


personal note: stay safe. we love you.

[GOPAgainstGW]

52. Thanks! I'll add other Local & Nat'l Feeds & Video Dloads Next 24 hrs-eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

46. 10:00 AM NHC Hurr Rita Report:

10:00AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 5
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 165 (D)
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 200
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 907 MB...26.78 Inches
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
(I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report)

Rita expected to weaken slightly but forecast to make landfall as a dangerous hurricane. At 10 AM CDT the eye of hurricane Rita was located about 460 miles southeast of Galveston Texas. Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

===GOPA Comments===
~See Attached, Worst Possible Landfall Projection~

Watch NDBC Bouy Station 42001, MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.
Wave Heights now 35 feet – See Post #37

[GOPAgainstGW]

47. Rita Projected To Hit Worst Possible Landfall Location...

The latest pinpoint projection for Hurr Rita is the worst possible landfall for Galveston-Houston. Rita is projected to directly hit Galveston Bay and then move up the Bay, the Houston Ship Channel, the Port of Houston, and directly hit several major refineries.

I posted this previously on the subject:

If Hurricane Rita hits Houston directly, the East side of the city, all the way down to Clear Lake (dumps into Galveston Bay) will get hammered hard, with significant flooding and destroyed homes. Same with far south Houston because it is basically at sea level with no protection.

Clear Lake is highly developed with expensive homes and has the 2nd largest number of docked sailboats in the U.S. If Hurricane Rita comes up Galveston Bay, damage in the Clear Lake Area will be MASSIVE! Same if Galveston Bay catches the "dirty side" of Hurr Rita. Galveston Bay is huge but only has an average depth of 7 feet.

Many refineries are located there, along with the major Houston Ship Channel and Port of Houston. The Port is the 2nd largest shipping port in the U.S. 2nd only to New Orleans and we have picked up a large amount of N.O. port business post-Katrina.

[GOPAgainstGW]

48. Article: Houston Turns to Hell Hole Ahead of Hurricane Rita

==============
Note: Seeing many reports on forums and blogs of significant Houston shortages of gasoline, water and food. Many people are trapped because they cannot find gas for their car.
==============

Houston Officials to Address Massive Current Freeway Traffic Problem
Freeway traffic flow to be reversed to aid evacuation
Sept. 22, 2005, 8:43AM

(GOPA says - Daaaa, Just now doing this!)

Houston Chronicle
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/33645...

Running from Rita
---------------------
With many of the primary evacuation routes from Hurricane Rita looking like parking lots this morning, preparations began to reverse the flow of inbound lanes of I-45, I-10 and U.S. 290. Traffic reporters were reporting predawn drive times ranging as long as 13 hours from Friendswood to Conroe as mandatory evacuations in Galveston, the Clear Lake area and neighborhoods along the Houston Ship Channel put hundreds of thousands of motorists on Houston's freeways.

I-45 was perhaps the most clogged freeway. The main artery from Galveston through Houston and on toward Dallas, the freeway slows to an agonizing crawl beginning just inside the Sam Houston Tollway, through downtown and past Interstate 610 on the north side.

<snip>

It took Tiffany Heikkila seven hours to drive with her 5-year-old son from Sugar Land to U.S. 71 and Interstate 10. Hotel parking lots were full, she said, and lines at gas stations were backed up all the way to the exit ramps. "All along the way, cars were pulled off on the shoulder with drivers sleeping. They had their doors open with one foot hanging out of the car. Traffic was so bad on 10 that people were just stopped and out walking their dogs."

On I-10 west of Houston, outbound traffic was more stop than go this morning. Drivers and passengers crawled on to their roofs for a better look, but traffic stretched as far as the eye could see.

U.S. 59 North was too much for Sarah Granbery to bear. The Rice Village resident forced herself up early to head for a friend's home in Nacogdoches. She had a full tank of gas, but less patience for the freeway. By the time she made the Crosstimbers exit, she gave up and headed back. "I guess we should have left Monday," she said.

As the lines of traffic continued to grow this morning, authorities announced they are now opening inbound lanes of I-45 to outbound traffic from FM 1488 near Conroe as far north as Buffalo, along with U.S. 290 toward Austin. Traffic flow on I-10 toward San Antonio is to be reversed later today.

"It’s absolutely unprecedented," said Janell Gbur, a department spokesman for the Texas Department of Transportation. "TxDOT has never reversed flow on a freeway." (WTF!) Their minds filled with images of Hurricane Katrina's furious assault on Louisiana and Mississippi, 1 million residents living in southeast Houston and low-lying areas began an exodus on Wednesday. As Rita zeroed in on the Texas coast as a Category 5 storm today, the evacuation became more urgent.
<snip>
At 7 a.m., Rita was centered about 490 miles east-southeast of Galveston and was moving west-northwest near 9 mph. Wind speed was 170 mph, down slightly from 175 earlier in the day. This morning the projected path of the storm began to shift northward over Galveston Bay. (THIS IS VERY BAD-GOPA) Forecasters believe the path may continue to shift northward toward Beaumont, but it remains too early to tell where it will land late Friday night or early Saturday morning. The entire Texas Gulf Coast remains vulnerable.
<snip>

Troops on standby
--------------------
Gov. Rick Perry Wednesday said 5,000 Texas National Guard troops are on standby and 1,000 Department of Public Safety officers are positioned along evacuation routes. Texas Homeland Security Director Steve McGraw said shelters for 250,000 evacuees are being established in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin and San Antonio.

In Washington, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said food, water and ice were being collected and stored at Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio.

As authorities prepared themselves for the second major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast in less than a month, Houston-area residents stripped stores of food, bottled water, batteries, toilet paper and other necessities. The cheapest grade of gasoline was in high demand. At one service station, Exxon Shop Convenience at 2211 Interstate 45 North, regular gasoline sold out early in the day and employees had to order an additional 5,800 gallons. Cars lined up four deep at the station's 14 pumps.

At one supermarket, a man and a woman arrived to purchase toilet paper but found the shelves bare. Tensely they eyed the last remaining box of dinner napkins. Then they laughed. "Go ahead, you take it," the man offered. Each then took half the contents. At pet stores, shelves similarly were cleaned of cat litter by noon.

Many Stores Now Rationing Supplies
----------------------------------
<snip>

[GOPAgainstGW]

51. Check Out Houston Real-Time Traffic Maps & Cams

Houston Transtar - Houston Real-Time Traffic Map & Cams

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

[GOPAgainstGW]

54. Houston: Fleeing from Hurr Rita Crisis - 100 Mile Backups

Fleeing from Rita Is Oh-so-Slow
From staff and wire reports
Sept. 22, 2005, 10:54AM
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/printstory.mpl/topstory/3364562

Bumper-to-bumper traffic is stretching for up to 100 miles north of the city, as more than a million people flee vulnerable parts of the Houston area. Hoping to speed the evacuation ahead of Hurricane Rita's arrival, authorities are opening the incoming lanes of three major Houston highways to outbound traffic for the first time ever: I-45 and U.S. 290 this morning and I-10 later today.

Freeways are at a standstill, with the drive from Friendswood to Conroe (50 miles) taking up to 13 hours. While some motorists had no problem finding gasoline, others reported going from station to station in search of fuel, and police officers along the highways were carrying gasoline to help people get out of town.

<snip>

Gov. Rick Perry early today ordered southbound traffic on Interstate 45 shut down and all eight lanes redirected north out of the city for 125 miles. Local officials warned residents to get out, and told them they would not be rescued if they waited.

``Don't follow the example of Katrina and wait,'' Harris County Judge Robert Eckels said. ``During the storm, we will not be able to get to you."

<snip>

Judge Eckels said he recognized the frustration of evacuee traffic stacked bumper-to-bumper for up to 100 miles north of Houston. He reminded evacuees that the storm is still 48 hours out, leaving plenty of time for motorists stuck in traffic to complete their escapes. ``We still have time to clean out these roads,'' he said. Eckels said there were logistical problems getting tankers to restock gas stations. Patrolmen along the highway were trying to carry gas to carry gas to people as they ran out, Gbur said.

People unable to escape low-lying areas in Houston on their own were urged to call a city hot line, and White said 10,000 people have called. Throughout the night the city was sending buses to get them out, but people were still told they needed to count on family, friends and neighbors. Mayor White reiterated that there is no safe place to stay in low-lying and flood-prone areas of the city, and there won't be shelters in the city. ``There will be no central place for people to go,'' White said.

===Galveston-Houston Evacuation Routes Map====

[GOPAgainstGW]

55. Houston Drivers scramble to fill up as fuel supply slows to trickle

Sept. 21, 2005, 11:09PM
By JOHN C. ROPER

Houston gasoline stations are running short of fuel because suppliers have shifted their deliveries to fill the needs of area hospitals and emergency crews in advance of Hurricane Rita. At area refineries, gasoline-delivery trucks were waiting in line for several hours to get their tanks filled, and even some refiners are running out of fuel, said Bill Tilger, operations manager for Sun Coast Resources, a large gasoline wholesaler based in Houston.

"The refineries are getting ready to shut down," Tilger said. "Some of them say as early as tonight at midnight. So the Houston metropolitan area is going to have some fuel concerns, for sure. People need to get their fuel and get the heck out of here."

<snip>

Lynton Allred, executive vice president of the Texas Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association in Austin, said most chains in Houston are coming up short. "The retail outlets that are out are doing all they can to get fuel," Allred said, adding that one chain told him that 22 of its outlets in Houston were out of regular gasoline by midday.

Tilger, who is moving his trucks out of Houston on Thursday to protect them from the storm, said he expects shortages to hit the Dallas area as well, as tens of thousands of Houstonians travel there to escape the Category 5 storm.

<snip>

The storm could damage some of the nation's key refineries in Houston at a time when gasoline supplies were just starting to adjust to the damage Hurricane Katrina dealt to facilities in Louisiana.

Texas has 18 refineries near the Gulf of Mexico that together produce about 23 percent of the nation's crude oil refining capacity, according to the Energy Information Agency. Ten of those refineries are in the Houston area.

"We have the chance of going back to where we were before during Katrina," said Ben Brockwell, director of Oil Price Information Service. "It's going to depend on how things are affected over the weekend where the storm actually hits."

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/printstory.mpl/special/05/rita/3364567

[GOPAgainstGW]

140. GOES-12 High Contrast Image

[GOPAgainstGW]

49. Current Open Market Energy Prices

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

[GOPAgainstGW]

57. Texas Gulf Coast's Oil & Chemical Plants Shutting Down

Sept. 21, 2005, 11:30PM

Refineries are packing it in
After temporary shutdowns, time needed to restart
By TOM FOWLER

Much of the Texas Gulf Coast's oil and chemical industry will grind to a halt today as companies prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Rita. Houston area oil refineries, such as BP's Texas City facility, the nation's third-largest, were shuttering operations completely on Wednesday. Shell's 333,700 barrel-a-day Deer Park refinery started to shut down on Wednesday and expects to complete the process by this morning.

Exxon Mobil's refineries at Baytown and Beaumont were operating at normal capacity Wednesday, although nonessential personnel at the Baytown facility were allowed to leave, company officials said.

The Texas Gulf Coast is "the mother lode of refining," according to Energy Information Administration analyst David Hinton, with 17 refineries representing 23 percent of U.S. oil refining capacity. Houston-area refineries alone account for 13 percent of the refining, while Corpus Christi is home to 3 percent and the Port Arthur/Beaumont area 7 percent.

Texas refineries may be able to weather storms a bit better than those in Louisiana because they are not below sea level. But some storm models predict a Category 5 hurricane would send a tidal surge as large as 30 feet up the narrow Houston Ship Channel. Such a wave could swamp the many refineries, chemical plants and other industries along the waterway.

<Snip>

Dow Chemical is closing its plants in Freeport, Deer Park, Clear Lake, Houston and La Porte, as well as the Union Carbide plants in Texas City and Seadrift. The 5,000-acre Freeport plant is one of the largest in the country, employing 7,500 workers.

Lyondell Chemical was expected to have its Matagorda polyethylene plant and Chocolate Bayou ethylene plant closed late Wednesday. All other facilities, including its 270,000-barrel refinery in Houston, were reducing their production rates on Wednesday and preparing to shut down as soon as today if necessary.

Shutting down a refinery or chemical plant is much more difficult than hitting a switch. A refinery is a collection of dozens of interconnected processes, said Gilbert Froment, a chemical engineering professor at Texas A&M University. The process can take more than a day, depending on the kind of equipment. "If you close a valve on one unit, it has repercussions on many other spots in a refinery," Froment said.

<snip>
Several days at a minimum
------------------------------
How long those refineries will be shut down, of course, depends on Rita. At a minimum, they will be off line for several days. Refiners need a day and a half to two days to bring a fully shut-down refinery back into normal production, noted Roger Diwan, Washington-based PFC Energy's managing director for the oil markets group. That means in the case of an undamaged refinery, it may not be until Monday or Tuesday before production restarts.

Seventeen facilities, from Freeport to Channelview to Alvin, had notified the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality by Wednesday that they would shut down some or all of their units because of the advancing storm. Many planned to be shut down until Monday, according to reports filed with the state. The facilities submitting reports to the agency by Wednesday estimated they would release 450,500 pounds of pollution as they went off line.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/printstory.mpl/special/05/rita/3364395

[al bupp]

58. Thank you, sir, for the quality information

It is greatly appreciated.

Here's hoping your hatches are fully battened and up to the coming storm!

[Nothing Without Hope]

59. Thank you, GOPAgainstGW - you are doing a great service with this thread

I recommended it last night and wish I could again. I know how much effort it is to continually add to a thread like this. It's very important and appreciated. Much better info here than by trying to scan the different news sites.

[GOPAgainstGW]

62. 1:00 PM NHC Hurr Rita Report:

1:00PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4+ (D)
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 150 (D)
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 185
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 915 MB...27.0178 Inches (I) (a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 (I) miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
(I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report)
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

At 1 pm CDT the center of Hurricane Rita was located 435 miles Southeast of Galveston Texas

===GOPA Comments===
80 MPH Winds, with 33-35 ft. Waves at NDBC Station 42001. Eye wall replacement appears to be starting.

[GOPAgainstGW]

63. Current Report: "Welcome to the Jungle" What a mess!

The Major Houston Interstates and Streets Are Like A Parking Lot...
what a disaster. It can take 12-15 hours to go just 50 miles north. Gasoline availability is a serious problem and some people are running out of gas on the interstates and major streets. The idiots still have not reverse flowed the major north bound interstates.

Many reports of no hotel rooms available within 500 miles of Galveston-Houston. One report of a shooting on a north bound interstate. The heat index is currently 116 degrees on the street/102 in the shade.

Another email report from a girl working at the Reliant Center (Astrodome Complex) where the last of the remaining Katrina survivors are being moved. The workers couldn't find any bottled water available at the grocery stores (all gone, shelves empty) so they are stealing boxes of water from the Reliant Center and food.

Several friends from Galveston called. Things looks pretty good down there. Most people that live in Galveston or spend the weekends there know all the back roads to go North and avoid going through Houston.

The current storm surge estimates for Galveston Bay (normally 7 feet deep) are 24-26 feet and that is calculating Hurr Rita to "only" be a Cat 3+. It will be a huge disaster if this happens. There's a beautiful suspension bridge at the North end of Galveston Bay. Be interesting if Rita wreaks it along with the 8,900 personal and commercial boats docked in the area.

I wish the National Hurricane Center would do a better job of educating the public that Hurricane Category ratings, based on wind speed, are very misleading and not very accurate. It's all about forward motion and kinetic energy with hurricanes and understanding that salt water is very heavy. A developed hurricane (Cat 3-4)releases the equivalent of a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding about every 20 minutes. The new hurricane scale should be in nuclear bomb megaton equivalants. That would wake people up.

The two Houston airports say they are going to close down tomorrow afternoon and all the carriers are going to pull their planes out of here. The cruise lines in Galveston have already pulled out and are going to port in Miami. Normally they would port in New Orleans pre-Katrina.

[demo dutch]

67. In FL, it has always been the biggest fear that people die in their cars

while they're trying to evacuate.

[GOPAgainstGW]

64. Current Hurr Rita Steering Layers Map......

Rita is drifting more easterly than NOAA-NHC originally thought because the dome over Texas is not moving east as fast as they thought it would.

[demo dutch]

68. If Rita slows down she could re-intensify

[GOPAgainstGW]

69. New Rita Forecast Model Tracks - Damn Wild!!

The computers and the pros still have no clue what this hurricane is going to do as to an accurate landfall track plot. Wild!

[Nothing Without Hope]

79. Good grief! They really DON'T have a clue! WHich model has

performed the best in the past, bearing in mind the warning on the graphic: "Computer models subject to large erros. So not use for planning purposes."

[Barack_America]

65. TAKE YOUR PETS!! Provisions being made at shelters!

Don't let this (see link) happen again!!

http://www.projectstarfish.org/photos7.php

[demo dutch]

66. self delete

[demo dutch]

70. Why stay in HOU!! when Andrew hit MIA we were 40 miles inward

and our area was flattend by wind damage. Our area was not designated as an evacuation zone. Destruction was beyond what you can imagine! It looked like a bombs had been dropped. Andrew was a Cat 5 with winds up to 200 miles per hours. They concluded later that tornados that form inside the hurricane touched down all over the place.

[GOPAgainstGW]

71. Florida and Hurr Andrew was a totally different animal. Cannot......

compare it to a Galveston-Houston hit. Totally different steering currents etc. in southern Florida and ZERO protection. I was born and raised in Miami. Houston is 55 miles inland and I/we 69 miles inland in a 4 story reinforced concrete structure surrounded by very large hills as barrier protection. Also very easy for us to get out of here and drive NW towards the Texas Panhandle if Rita was going to direct hit us at the force of say a Hurricane Mitch, which was the mother of all current hurricanes.

That's my thought process.

[demo dutch]

73. We lived near the Miami Zoo when Andrew hit, so then you know

how badly that area was hit at the time and it is quite a ways away from the coast. Never even saw the eye (it past south of us in Homestead) and rode the north-west part of Andrew for the entire stretch. When Hugo hit Charleston, they reported 109 mi winds in Sumter SC which is located 90mi inward.

Anyway, the problem is when you evacuate, they don't let you back in for days and days, and that just sucks. Be safe and don't get stuck in your car if you do have to get out.

[GOPAgainstGW]

91. Difference is Houston is Not in a Natural Hurricane Path....

That is why we rarely get a direct hit. South Florida and the Atlantic Coastline Carolinas are in a natural hurricane path. The dynamics are totally different. Of course hurricanes do what they want and have no rules as far as I'm concerned.

Further, I'm not like a lot of these idoits that don't respect the powers of nature or like being inconvienced by nature. Over my life I have had two friends die not respecting a greater power and the power of nature. Not going to be the way I leave this world, that's for sure!

[GOPAgainstGW]

72. Update: Rita Restrengthening

No question from the just released sat-images Rita is restrengthening. The eye wall looks much better again and she is still in very deep Gulf waters with a massive amount of kinetic energy. Also the wave heights at NDBC Station 42001 went down approx 2 feet the last two hours, but now they are back up 2.5 feet., yet wind speeds never faultered.

From Previous Post
----------------
I wish the National Hurricane Center would do a better job of educating the public that Hurricane Category ratings, based on wind speed, are very misleading and not very accurate. It's all about forward motion and kinetic energy with hurricanes and understanding that salt water is very heavy. A developed hurricane (Cat 3-4) releases the equivalent of a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding about every 20 minutes. The new hurricane scale should be in nuclear bomb megaton equivalants. That would wake people up, LOL.

[demo dutch]

74. I figured that it would.

[GOPAgainstGW]

77. It's Not Over Until the Fat Hurricane Sings, lol - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

75. Great Houston Calamity Pics!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4851484

[Sweet Freedom]

78. I'm in Sugar Land

Right on the west edge of the storm. Sticking it out. No gas to go anywhere anyway. Spent the past day taping windows, etc., and am well prepared with water and food.

I am so thankful the storm shifted a bit east. I swear, last night the projected path was right through my backyard!

Stay dry, stay safe! Take care.

[GOPAgainstGW]

86. Let's Stay In Contact-Rita Can Still Go Anywhere. I'm in Houston

[Sweet Freedom]

129. Okay

I plan to pack up the computer today and put away. I'm guessing I'll be without power for a while, but I will check in ASAP.

Stay dry my friend!

[north houston dem]

80. We are in the northwest part of houston

in the garden oaks area. We have water, generators, etc and are boarding up to ride it out. I was supposed to go to washington to the march but have cancelled my tickets - i just could not leave my family here.
my mom won't leave her house and she is just north of I-10 close to downtown.

Pray for us y'all

[fleabert]

179. you and my step- cousin! she is riding it out too...

she's in this area...



I only hope she is as well prepared as you seem to be. good luck and safe passage thru the storm.

[Nothing Without Hope]

81. This WeatherUnderground tracking map has Rita's center hitting the shore

to the northeast of Galveston Bay. If so, some of the very worst would not hit there, catastrophic as it will be:

[GOPAgainstGW]

84. 4:00 PM NHC Hurr Rita Report

4:00PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 145 (D)-5
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 180
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 913 MB...26.96 Inches (D)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 (D) miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. (I)
(I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report)
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

At 4 pm CDT the center of Hurricane Rita was located 405 miles Southeast of Galveston Texas.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 pm CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 pm CDT.

====GOPA Comments===
I think NHC used a dart board and blindfold to come up with this report. Damn it’s clueless BS, imo. They must have written this report before Rita really re-intensified. She has a beautiful eye again.

===NHC Discussion===
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

Rita is going through the weakening phase of an eyewall replacement cycle and data from the NOAA reconnaissance plane indicate that winds have decreased to 125 knots (145 MPH)...and this may be generous. However...the minimum central pressure has remained around 913 Mb...which is a very low pressure to have only 125 knots. (145 MPH) In addition to the eyewall replacement cycle...Rita is currently moving over the edge of a cold sst eddy. This could have enhanced the weakening today. The hurricane is forecast to move over another warm eddy during the next 12 to 24 hours and there is some chance that rita could regain some intensity. Because the shear is forecast to increase...this may compensate for the strengthening. That may be caused by the effects of the high heat content. The best option at this time is to keep Rita as a 125 kt hurricane with a slight weakening before landfall. The bottom line is that Rita is expected to make landfall as a dangerous hurricane of at least a Category three intensity.

[GOPAgainstGW]

85. More Just Released Rita Mug Shots

You don't get a much more well defined eye than this

[crispini]

87. Thank you for the very informative thread!

Good work! :thumbsup:

[demo dutch]

90. Looks familiar! Cat 5 Hurr Andrew, it's got that same well defined eye!

[GOPAgainstGW]

101. I'll see your Andrew and raise you a Mitch-1998

The biggest bastard of all, but one hurricane, in history. More devastating that the Galveston hurricane of 1900. Mitch had maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH, Gusts 215 MPH. Mitch also holds the record for staying at a Cat 5 status the longest, 33 hours, of any hurricane in history.

[demo dutch]

107. Eitherway get ready for a Cat 5!

[althecat]

89. New Image From NASA MOdis

[althecat]

93. Closeup of the eye... taken from image above

[althecat]

94. Same Image modified for curviture of earth

[althecat]

96. And a closeup of the eye from this perspective

[QuettaKid]

124. THIS PIC IS AWESOME.....

I have always wondered what it would be like to fly in the eye of one of these...

[althecat]

97. Ground Zero to be.... closeup taken from Modis image above

[Catherine Vincent]

92. Little Rock

I have family heading toward Little Rock, Arkansas. Isn't the storm headed that way also? Should we tell them to head to Oklahoma City? But at least they are out of Houston...on US59 going north.

[RedEarth]

108. It's my understanding most of the motels are booked up in OKC

[GOPAgainstGW]

95. Update: Rita Tracks Projection Model-READ!!!

Just Released - If this is accurate, Texans are going to get their brain's beat out with very heavy rains, high winds, and severe flooding. Several models now show Rita will stall out over Texas.

I have NEVER seen so many hourly changes in a hurricane tracks projection in my life. It's crazy!

[Pithy Cherub]

98. Rita is moving over water that seems to be changing temperature.

If she hits a hot spot then, that will be bad. But hopefully there is some weakening once Rita comes closer to shore. This has been a very helpful thread! I have much family and friends in Houston!

How long will the winds stay at tropical to hurricane strength?

[GOPAgainstGW]

99. Actually Hurricanes change the water temp up to 4 degrees colder....

around them due to sucking up cold water from depths below them. Further, Rita is still in very deep waters of the Gulf.

[Nothing Without Hope]

100. This thread is better than the regular news sources. THANK YOU!!!

That eye is enormous, and what a strange and frightening place it must be. Photographs are stunning. Horrifying to watch it slowly home in on Texas.

Back a hundred years ago, when the Great Galveston Hurricane wiped out Galveston and killed thousands, they didn't know what was coming. From the images, there's little cloud cover in Texas now. Thank god for satellites and weaher bouys and those gutsy hurricane chasers.

But even with them, people are going to die and thousands are going to lose their homes.

[GOPAgainstGW]

102. Hurricane Mitch-1998 killed thousands more than Galveston-1900....

The biggest bastard of all, but one hurricane, in history. More devastating that the Galveston hurricane of 1900. Mitch had maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH, Gusts 215 MPH. Mitch also holds the record for staying at a Cat 5 status the longest, 33 hours, of any hurricane in history.

11,000+ Deaths, 11-18,000 missing in Central America, Honduras, Nicaragua. The largest tall ship owned by Windjammer Barefoot Cruises (Florida), the Fantome, tried to out-run and dodge Mitch and the ship went down with the whole crew never to be found. The owner of Windjammer should have been taken out and shot for causing all those needless deaths just trying to save his uninsured ship while he sat in Florida. The whole deal was really sick.

I get upset that all we hear about in the States from the media is the Galveston 1900 hurricane, when Mitch was so devastating to Central America. It was HORRIBLE!

[Nothing Without Hope]

109. Thank you for this. I'm ashamed to admit I hadn't realized Mitch was

so horrible, such a massive killer. I've seen far more images of destruction from the old Galveston hurricane than from Mitch, which happened less than 10 years ago.

[GOPAgainstGW]

103. 7:00 PM NHC Hurr Rita Report:

7:00PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 145
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 180
Moving Towards the West at near 10 MPH. (I)
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 913 MB...26.96 Inches
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

Rita continues west-northwestward. Outer rainbands spreading over southern Louisiana. At 7 pm CDT the center of Hurricane Rita was located 350 miles east-southeast of Galveston Texas

The next complete advisory at 10 pm CDT.

====GOPA Comments===
Rita can kiss my rosy #@$%. The computer model projections are AGAIN all over the map with no cohesion or consistency. In 20 years I have never see a hurricane screw up the computer model projection so bad. It is like the models are projecting from different hurricanes. Wild!

Secondly, I see many of the "experts" saying Rita is getting weaker. I’m no pro, but the images don’t lie, and the present data reading are 100% stable. Rita has clearly got stronger with a very well defined eye and rotation, again. Yes, there is some upper level shearing on the northern side of Rita and the friction of now hitting the LA southern coastline, but it doesn’t seem to be slowing Rita down based on all the images the last 1.5 hours.

Maybe the experts need to stop letting the computer models think for them. Noted in the latest images, Rita is already beating on the Southern Coast of Louisiana. Very bad for New Orleans with a greatly weakened levee system.

Here is the latest computer model projections. Again, wildly different from the projections just two hours ago!

[GOPAgainstGW]

104. More Latest Rita Mug Shots

[GOPAgainstGW]

105. 137 MPH Winds at NBDC Bouy 42001-Massive Pressure Drop

Hurricane Rita is presently running over Bouy 42001 and is well on top of it.

[GOPAgainstGW]

106. Bouy 42040 - 20ft+ Wave Heights 64nmiles South of Mobile, AL

[Nothing Without Hope]

110. 4 AM CDT Fri UPDATE from NHC/NOAA & latest water vapor satellite photo

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/230852.shtml

Hurricane RITA Public Advisory

(snip)

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE
UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF
130 FT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[GOPAgainstGW]

114. Thanks for the Excellent Posts. Really Appreciate It - eom

[Nothing Without Hope]

116. glad to help out a little - you've got to sleep SOME time!

This thread is still the best place to get updates on this monster storm. Thank you very much for it.

[Nothing Without Hope]

111. COMPUTER MODELS UPDATE - 2AM EDT - predicted backtrack in all but one

The exception is UKMET (dark yellow). But the KIND of backtrack varies wildly. Given the instability of these model tracks, it's hard to know what this means.

[GOPAgainstGW]

113. 4:00 AM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

4:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 140 (D) -5
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 170
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 9 MPH. (D)
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 927 MB...27.37 Inches (I) (a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 (I) miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 26.8 north...longitude 91.0 west, 290 miles
southeast of Galveston, Texas, 250 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

On this track Rita will be approaching the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late today or tonight. Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

====GOPA Comments===
Rita’s eyewall has shown clear degradation the last 4 hours due to sheer on it northern side. The big story however is once again the computer track projections model. They reflect that eastern Texas, (and/or possible central Texas-secondary) could get severely hammered not once but twice by Rita causing significant flooding, property damage, and potential loss of life. All Galveston-Houston and southeast Texas residents remember tropical depression(TD) Allison, June 2001. In Houston, up to 31 inches of rain in 24 hours, 47 deaths, 10,000 eventually destroyed homes and $5 billion in damages. The most expense and destructive storm to ever hit Houston. More destructive than Hurricane Alicia’s direct hit in 1983. It was not the winds, it was the severe water level rises.

The bottom line is that Hurricane Rita continues to look extremely bad for Galveston-Houston and Southeast Texas based on current data. Stalled out or backtracking hurricanes/tropical storms/tropical depressions are SUBSTANTIALLY more dangerous than than a normal moving hurricane. This is what caused TD Allison’s trememdous destruction and caused Hurricane Mitch-Nov 1998 to be the most deadly hurricane since “The Great Hurricane of 1780” in the Caribbean with 22,000 estimated deaths.

On other matters, the evacuation of Houston continues to be another disaster/joke as to very severe traffic problems along with lack of gasoline, water and food. There is NO excuse for what has happened the last 24-36 hours and currently. Everyone is so sick of public officials press conferences and news coverage of what they are going to do, then it doesn’t get down, or worse, they are total lying and/or making outright fraudulent statements to the public. More later on this subject.

===NWC DISCUSSION-4:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005===

Rita is completing its eyewall replacement cycle this morning...as the last report from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft showed that the inner 15 n mi wide eye had dissipated and a single 33 n mi wide eye existed. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb in the northeastern quadrant are 125-130 kt...which helps support an
initial intensity of 120 kt. The aircraft data showed that another wind maxima has formed about 60 n mi from the center...which might be the start of another outer eyewall. The latest central pressure reported by the aircraft is 927 mb.

Rawinsonde data at 00z indicates that the mid-level ridge is still present over Texas. This feature should move eastward during the next 24-48 hr...allowing the current northwestward motion to become more northerly. Track guidance is now clustered about a landfall on the upper texas coast in roughly 30 hr...with the model track being spread between San Luis pass and Sabine Pass. The forecast track up to landfall is essentially an update of the previous package. After landfall...the guidance become very divergent as high pressure build to the west and possibly north of Rita. Given the spread...the forecast track will call for little motion after 72 hr just as the previous forecast did. This stalling will pose a serious risk of very heavy rainfall well inland.

The intensity forecast is still problematic. Since Rita has completed the eyewall replacement cycle and is over the warm eddy of the loop current...there is a chance it could strengthen during the next 12 hr. After that...it should moved north of the eddy... Possibly start another eyewall cycle...and possibly experience increasing southerly shear. The intensity forecast thus calls for a slight increase in strength in 12 hr...followed by slight weakening. An alternative scenario is that Rita does not strengthen...and gradually weakens due to shear until landfall. This could happen if the shear reaches the 25 kt values forecast by the gfs and ships models.

[GOPAgainstGW]

115. Latest GOES-12 Hurr Rita Image

[GOPAgainstGW]

117. Hurr Rita: Full Live Trac & History - Current

[GOPAgainstGW]

118. Steering Layers Proj Rita to Move Back West Towards Gal-Hou

Who knows with this hurricane, (the well paid pros sure don't, ugg) but all the current upper level steering layers maps and projections suggest that Hurr Rita will/could drift/push back more to the West now towards Galveston-Houston and in particular Galveston Bay/Houston Ship Channel. I'm sure Rita will let us know today, lol.

[GOPAgainstGW]

119. .....

[GOPAgainstGW]

121. 7:00 AM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

7:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 - 23a
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 140
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 175 (I)
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 930 MB...27.46 Inches (I)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 27.1 north...longitude 91.5 west, 260 miles
southeast of Galveston, Texas, 220 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS & SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days across eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

In addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans.

====GOPA Comments===
See previous 4:00 AM Report posts. As I previously stated, I've been tracking hurricanes for 20 years and lived on the Gulf coast or in the Caribbean my entire life. Hurricane wind speed and category rating is not a very good way to evaluate the potential destruction of a hurricane. "Forward kinetic energy equivalents" is the best way to evaluate a hurricane and Rita still has extremely dangerous readings (Cat 5 equivalent in lay terms) and is still in very deep Gulf waters.

[GOPAgainstGW]

122. Gasoline Tanker Trucks Head for Houston & Surrounding Freeways

9/23/05 - 7:30 am

Thousands of evacuees remain stranded on freeways out of Houston today, but tankers full of gasoline are on their way. The pre-hurricane disaster that began Thursday was the traffic jams that trapped motorists on freeways all day as they tried to flee the Gulf Coast. Many vehicles ran out of fuel on highways where cars inched along.

"We've got people stuck in traffic, but we've got 24 hours. We're going to have fuel there, and we're going to get them out," said Steve McCraw, state director of Homeland Security. The Texas National Guard was dispatching two 5,000 tankers from Austin at daybreak today to help motorists stranded along U.S. 290, U.S. 59, and Interstate 45 as well as Interstate 10. The trucks are to work their way back toward Houston with 40,000 gallons of gasoline, and stranded motorists are asked to pop their hoods to signal they need fuel.

Hundreds of families attempting to escape the wrath of the hurricane have gathered on a Walmart parking lot in Sealy on Interstate 10 (35 miles west of Houston-GOPA) where they are standed, desperately in need of gasoline. Those stranded in Sealy alone could easily use the fuel in just one of the tankers, said Michael Stewart of Kemah, who is among those unable to continue the evacuation without fuel.

McCraw said the state also is working with the Texas Oil and Gas Association and Texas Tank Carriers Association to transport more than 200,000 gallons of fuel provided by Exxon Mobil to refuel the National Guard tankers. Some of the fuel also is going to service stations so they can reopen. Coast Guard helicopters were flying fuel to 11 different Texas Department of Transportation locations to refuel 100 trucks that are taking gas to stranded vehicles, McCraw said.

===GOPA's Map Based on Reports=====

[crispini]

123. The Wal-Mart in Sealy, Texas.

Well, perhaps that wouldn't be a bad place to ride out a storm. I was stuck in Sealy one time. Good people there.

[GOPAgainstGW]

125. Yelp, good place so is Bellville. I have friends there

Our concrete building 4-story command post is in Houston (Harris County) outside HWY 290 and HWY Loop 8. If Rita was extremely severe and coming dead-on for us, (would take a CAT 5++) we would head out HWY 290 to Brenham, Tx (home of BlueBell ice cream). Have friends that live there also.

[crispini]

126. Traffic is being re-routed east off of 45 because of the bus fire.

Further south of there, at Ennis, the counterflow stops and they are trying to route people to 287 there. So people there will be going more west, through Waxahachie.

Apparently there is quite a big jam at Ennis because of the counterflow stops there.

[GOPAgainstGW]

128. My homeowner friends from Galveston made it to Dallas....

in 8 hours yesterday. Took many people 8 hours just to go from south Houston to north Houston yesterday. My friends started back about 2:00 am in the morning and took all the back roads I laid out for them. My girlfriend left for Dallas Wed morning very early and had no problems.

[crispini]

131. That's good news.

The back roads are your friend. :)

[GOPAgainstGW]

127. Up to 20 Hurr Rita Evacuees Killed in Bus Fire

CBS Channel 11 - Dallas, Texas
Rita Evacuees' Bus Burns
As many as 20 people killed

Sep 23, 2005 7:48 am US/Central
WILMER, Texas (Just south of Dallas on I-45, GOPA) A bus carrying elderly evacuees from Hurricane Rita caught fire early Friday on a gridlocked highway near Dallas, killing as many as 20 people, authorities said. "Deputies were unable to get everyone off the bus," spokesman Don Peritz said. "We believe it's going to be closer to 20 fatalities.

The bus, carrying about 45 people, was engulfed with flames, causing a 17-mile backup on a Interstate 45, already heavily congested with evacuees from the Gulf Coast. The bus was reduced to a blackened, burned-out shell, surrounded by numerous police cars and ambulances.

There were indications that oxygen used by elderly evacuees could have had a role in the fire, Peritz said. There were a series of explosions, apparently from the oxygen equipment, he said. "The early indications are this is a mechanical issue. The driver did survive the accident," Peritz said. "It's my understanding he went back on the bus several times to try to evacuate people."
-----------

Interstate 45 stretches more than 250 miles from Galveston through Houston to Dallas. The crash site is roughly 17 miles southeast of downtown Dallas. This is the major outbound interstate from Houston that was a total out of control nightmare yesterday with a 100 mile bumper-to-bumper, 0-5 miles per hour, backup yesterday. Hundreds of cars ran out of gas, and the heat index on the highway, inside north Houston, hit a 128 degrees late yesterday afternoon. The City never converted Houston North I-45 to a full contra-outflow evacuation route as they said on TV. It just didn't happen. One Houston City official said on converting I-45 North to contra-flow (like is in the City's formal evac plans) "well, we've never done that before". I couldn't believe the idoit.

[GOPAgainstGW]

134. Death Toll Increased to 24 - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

130. New: Rita Projections Tracs Model Report & Images

Rita is stronger again around the eyewall.

[GOPAgainstGW]

132. 10:00 AM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

10:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 - 24
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 135 (D) -5
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 170
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 10 MPH. (I)
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 929 MB...27.43 Inches (D)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 27.4 north...longitude 91.9 west, 220 miles
southeast of Galveston, Texas, 210 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

====GOPA Comments===
The “experts” say Rita is weaker and her winds are down to 135/170 MPH. The just released images, reduced pressure readings, and upper winds analysis say different as to intensity and Rita’s eye has become much more developed again. Net-net, the winds are down because Rita’s outer-bands are hit the Gulf coastline, but her intensity if anything has increased. 45 MPH wind gusts and 13ft wave heights already being experienced at a NDBC Bouy 25 miles south of Galveston, yet the hurricane is net 200 miles away.

LATEST HURRICANE RITA IMAGE

[GOPAgainstGW]

133. Latest Hurr Rita GOES12 Image

LATEST HURR RITA GOES12 IMAGE

[myrna minx]

136. Thank you for this incredible thread.

I hope all of our friends stay safe. :hug:

[GOPAgainstGW]

137. Anytime. Glad the thread is of benefit. Be Well! - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

135. Hurr Rita: Water pours into New Orleans Again - Levee Topped

Water poured in the Lower 9th Ward on Friday morning, topping a section of the Industrial Canal levee being repaired by the Army Corps of Enginners, Lt. Col. Pete Schneider of the Louisiana National Guard said.

Officials blamed rain and storm surge caused by winds from Hurricane Rita for the high water. Dozens of blocks were already under water as a wave of water 30 feet wide poured over a dike that had been used to patch breaks in the Industrial Canal. On the street that runs parallel to the canal, the water ran waist-deep and was rising fast.

The levee had been breached during Hurricane Katrina, causing catastrophic flooding through the neighborhoods of the 9th Ward.

====================
Flood waters are visible west of Industrial Canal
Friday, 8:50 a.m.

Water apparently has flooded back into part of New Orleans on the western side of the Industrial Canal. From the Interstate 10 high rise over the canal, water was visible at the New Orleans Cold Storage Facility and in other port facilities Friday morning. Water also had spilled onto Alvar Street and neighboring roads.

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_09_23.html

[dog_lovin_dem]

138. I have a nephew in Conroe.

Does anyone know if the Conroe area is in the path? I've been unable to reach him and it's beginning to worry me, even though the storm hasn't hit yet.

[GOPAgainstGW]

139. Conroe Is In Danger from Hurr Rita & Severe Flooding. Also ......

the phone systems in Harris and surrounding Counties has been jammed from time to time due to massive call volume. Many reports of people not being able to contact loved ones, et. al., via the line or air telephone systems.

Just keep trying from time to time throughout the day, or use the internet if you both have this available. Some people have been going to Kinco's and using their internet connections and computers to contact loved ones.

Hope this helps
GOPA

[geomon666]

141. Radar Image

[GOPAgainstGW]

143. Thanks! :-)

[GOPAgainstGW]

142. 1:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

1:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 24a
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3 (D)
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 125(D) -10
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 10 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 931 MB...27.49 Inches (I)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 27.8 north...longitude 92.2 west, 190 miles
southeast of Galveston, Texas, 175 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

Rita’s on a slow weakening trend. Rita is now a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. A further slow weakening is possible before landfall...but Rita is still expected to come ashore as a dangerous hurricane.

====GOPA Comments===

Wow, Rita’s eyewall took a huge hit with a good part of it collapsing. It all happened in the last hour. In watching the IR-2 and IR-4 videos, the curvature and highly ragged western Louisiana coast line is playing hell with Rita. Her approaching trajectory is maximizing the coast line’s negative effect and there is also now a south flank wind sheer effecting Rita. Despite these events, there has been no negative effects on the data readings at the NDBC Buoy 25 miles south of Galveston. In fact, wave heights have increased to 14.5 feet since I checked them at 11:00 am. Never a dull moment.
~~~~~~~

PS: I’ve had some pm’s/em’s on how long a hurricane can stay a Category 5 status. The record is 33 hours by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Mitch was the deadliest hurricane in over 200 years. Killed many thousands more than the 1900 Galveston hurricane. The highly destructive Hurricane Camille-1969 only maintained a Cat 5 status for 24 hours.

Latest Rita Images

[GOPAgainstGW]

144. Video: Hurr Rita Sat-GOES12 High Res Color-Excellent

High Resolution GOES-12 Color Video - Rita Approaching Gulf Coast line
09.23.05-8:00 am
Requires: QuickTime

http://s58.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=15GTXDENP4IPD0B7HMDM3ESZ2S

Download link is good for 25 downloads or one week, whichever is shorter.

[GOPAgainstGW]

145. New: Hurr Rita Tracks Projection - Another Major Change in Projections!

In my twenty years of tracking and understanding hurricanes, I have NEVER seen anything like all the massive track changes in Hurricane Rita on an hourly basis. It's bizarre!

[GOPAgainstGW]

149. .......................

[GOPAgainstGW]

146. 3:00PM Update: Hurr Rita Comes Back With A Vengeance!

Simply amazing hurricane that has all the serious pros scratching their heads. Major eyewall reformation and intensification, although Rita is still shearing on its south flank. Well, this event will blow out all the last computer model projections, lol. Unbelievable

+++Latest Sat-Images+++

[GOPAgainstGW]

147. Latest GOES12 Image

[GOPAgainstGW]

148. Rita, NOAA Buoy Stations Killer-Major Station Ripped From Moorings

Like Hurr Katrina, Hurr Rita is killing NOAA-NWC on knocking out major Buoy and ground monitoring stations. Between the two hurricanes, NOAA has lost 6 stations. Two hours ago Rita claimed a major recording station, Bouy 42001 ripping it from it's moorings.

[demo dutch]

152. Hurricane Ctr has also lost its actual radar in the past..Stay safe HOU

[crispini]

150. kick

:kick:

[GOPAgainstGW]

194. ...................

[GOPAgainstGW]

151. 4:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

4:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 25
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 125
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 12 MPH. (I) +2
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 930 MB...27.46 Inches (D)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 28.2 north...longitude 92.6 west, 155 miles
east-southeast of Galveston, Texas, 140 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

Center of dangerous hurricane Rita expected to make landfall near daybreak Saturday. Rita is expected to come ashore as a dangerous category three hurricane. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles near the path of Rita.

Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier amounts possible.

Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations locally in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days across Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana. Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southeastern Texas...southern Louisiana including southern Mississippi and Alabama.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the national hurricane center at 6 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 pm CDT.

====GOPA Comments===
Pressure has decreased again. Significant reformation in eyewall in the last hour. Many of the current track projections became invalid in the last hour.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, HURRICANE RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE.

[demo dutch]

153. Will it strengthen back to a CAT 4?

[GOPAgainstGW]

154. WARNING: RITA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WITH.........

SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE EXPECTED BASED ON JUST RELEASED DATA.

[GOPAgainstGW]

155. Gulf Sea Surface Temps Update

[GOPAgainstGW]

156. Hurr Rita Literally Exploded Again-Extremely Dangerous!!!...

despite the south/southeast flake shearing taking place.

[GOPAgainstGW]

158. Latest GOES-12 Image

[GOPAgainstGW]

162. The Power of Rita: 18-24 ft waves 65 Miles South of Mobile, Alabama - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

163. Rita: 16-19 ft waves 60 Miles West-Southwest of Galveston, Texas - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

164. 582 Miles of Gulf Coast Line Between the Two Points-THAT'S A Hurricane!

[GOPAgainstGW]

166. Rita: Modus Image-NDBC Bouy Station Sites Locations Used

[althecat]

157. New NASA Modis Pic Of Rita Over Gulf

[althecat]

159. A Closeup Of Rita's Eye... taken from this image...

[Bouncy Ball]

160. GOPagainstGW, thank you for this thread, it is very helpful

to have all this in one thread.

Good luck to you.

[GOPAgainstGW]

161. Saw Your Evacuation Posts. We must have 500 emails like it. HELL HOLE!!!

[WiseButAngrySara]

167. Thanks so much to both you and bouncy ball. Are you going to continue thi

thread throughout the hurricane, even though its not likely to hit Houston/Galveston dead on? Its very helpful. I hope you do, and thanks again in advance!

[GOPAgainstGW]

193. ...................

[GOPAgainstGW]

168. 6:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

6:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 25a
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 125
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 162 (I)
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 13 MPH. (I) +2
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 931 MB...27.49 Inches (I)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 28.5 north...longitude 92.9 west, 100 miles
southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas, along the coast at the border between Texas and Louisiana.
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

====GOPA Comments===

Pass Comments to 8:00 CDT, however this current image says it all about what nature is getting ready to do to us!

[GOPAgainstGW]

169. Latest Tracks Projections-Wild Per Usual, We are Royally Screwed by Rita!!

[GOPAgainstGW]

170. NWS Houston-Galveston Radar

[GOPAgainstGW]

171. NWS - Lake Charles Radar They will get TOTALLY hammered by Rita

[GOPAgainstGW]

172. Major Refineries and O & G Services in Lake Charles - eom

[GOPAgainstGW]

173. 98 MPH Wind Gust Just NDBC Station Reported at Marsh Island, LA....

Marsh Island is 60 Miles west of the Louisiana-Texas Line. This is the highest winds gust noted at all reporting stations along the Texas/Louisiana Coast Line.

[Rainscents]

174. GOPAgainstGW... Thanks for all the great work you'd doing with this tread!

This tread been great!!! I been watching it since you posted this!!!

:toast:

[GOPAgainstGW]

175. Thanks, Looks Like I'm Not Going to Totally Lose My Galveston Beach Home..

at this juncture.

[GOPAgainstGW]

176. .....................

[GOPAgainstGW]

177. 8:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

8:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 25b
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 120 (D) -5
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 11 MPH (D) -2
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 931 MB...27.49 Inches
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 28.7 north...longitude 93.0 west, 85 miles
southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas, along the coast at the border between Texas and Louisiana.
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

...Conditions deteriorating in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas as dangerous hurricane Rita approaches...

A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of hurricane Rita will make landfall along the southwest Louisiana and upper Texas coasts near daybreak Saturday. Rita is still expected to come ashore as a dangerous category three hurricane.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 feet above normal tide levels...Locally up to 20 feet at head of bays and nearby rivers...with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 4 to 6 feet and be accompanied by large waves... and residents there could experience coastal flooding. Large swells generated by Rita will likely affect most portions of the Gulf Coast.

Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches... With isolated maximum amounts of 20-25 inches over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana... Including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier amounts possible.

Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations locally in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days across eastern Texas into Western Louisiana. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Saturday morning over portions of southeastern Texas...southern Louisiana including southern Mssissippi and Alabama.

Next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.

====GOPA Comments===

Eyewall is showing significant distortion again, but the pressure is still very strong, and Rita is not sheering on her southern flank now. Current estimated minimum central pressure is 931 MB...27.49 inches. Anyone that knows hurricanes agrees anything at or below 930/27.50 is an extremely serious hurricane. Add to that a stalling hurricane at this strength and you have a massive disaster seen usually once every 100 years. Also all experts add the hurricane’s maximum sustained winds and it’s forward speed together to evaluate impact motion. They then add to that, the number of hours since eyewall reformation by a factor (within the last 5 hours for Rita).

Bottom line, we are looking at the equivalent of a Cat 5- hurricane at landfall and thereafter as to destruction and potential deaths. If Hurr Rita stalls out after landfall (as predicted) people in its very large path are royally screwed, and substantially worse than Katrina.

Also I think the eye of the hurricane will make landfall much sooner than the projection of daybreak Saturday based on the current data.

Note: There is a NDBC buoy Station south of Sabine Pass, Texas. Hopefully it will continue to function, but doubtful. Both Hurr Katrina and Rita have been ripping the hell out of NOAA-NDBC monitoring stations. Presently the higher winds speeds and wave heights are west of Sabine Pass in Louisiana, on the "dirty side" of Hurr Rita. Already seeing 100 MPH gusts.

PS: I’m putting together a composite photo of all the major freeways and interstates at 6:30pm this evening in Houston. They were totally void of all traffic. I have never seen anything like it. It was wild!

Latest Hurr Rita image. Wild pic. It's like a hook or a question mark hitting the Gulf coast. Between that and the giant penus-screwing pic I posted in the last NHC Update, maybe God is trying to say something here! Geee what a wild hurricane!!!!!!!

[GOPAgainstGW]

178. Rita: Latest Update Images

[fleabert]

180. thank you so much GOPAgainstGW...

this thread is all I have to keep track of family and friends in the path...

some in houston, some in Longview, and some in White Oak.

:fingerscrossed: that things will be okay.

[GOPAgainstGW]

182. Glad The Thread's Of Benefit. I am in Houston with 3 friends....

Sent my girlfriend to Dallas Wednesday.

[fleabert]

183. stay safe and remember to update us as soon as possible after

things get crazy, as the probably will. We will all be thinking of you and yours. (and I mean update us on how YOU are, not just the weather!)

[GOPAgainstGW]

181. Hurricane Force Winds Are Now Hitting The TX-LA Coastline........

The S**t is really starting to hit the fan particularly 25-65 miles west of the Texas-Louisiana State line, per watching all the weather monitoring stations data.

The weather here in Houston, where I am located, is really going to hell the last hour also.

[Rainscents]

187. GOPAgainstGW... Please stay safe! We care!

:hug:

[LincolnMcGrath]

184. Holy Shit! What a great thread!

Stay Safe My Freind!

[Pithy Cherub]

185. Because your insights and images are so wonderful

would you please start a new thread for us dial-up folks when you get to a couple hundred posts. Please reference this one in the new one and don't lock it becuase there is an immeasurable amount of great information here. Thank you for the continuing commentary.

Please be safe and :yourock:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

186. From another weather-nut, thanks! Great thread! :-)

[GOPAgainstGW]

188. Anytime :-)

[Nothing Without Hope]

189. OMG! It DOES look like a gigantic QUESTION MARK. It also looks to my

untutored eyes like it's heading for a west Louisiana landfall - though who knows with that cross-current pushing it back over Texas.

I grew up in Texas (Fort Worth - high school at Permian High School in Odessa, of "Friday Night Lights' fame). My brother and his family are in Austin, and though I live in New England now, Texas will always feel like home to me. Looks like they're relatively safe but will get hammered with rain. Lots of little watercourses around there, flooding does serious damage. I hope people go to higher ground when the rain starts mounting up. Flooding can happen so damn quickly when the rain is so heavy.

[GOPAgainstGW]

196. Between That Pic and This One - Maybe God Is Unhappy

[Nothing Without Hope]

204. Yeah, kinda makes you wonder. Maybe some of the nuttier Fristians

will take it as a hint? :crazy:

[GOPAgainstGW]

197. ..................

[GOPAgainstGW]

190. 10:00 PM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

10:00 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 – 26
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 120
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 12 MPH (I) +1
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 931 MB...27.49 Inches (No Change)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 29.1 north...longitude 93.2 west, 55 miles
southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas, along the coast at the border between Texas and Louisiana.
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

...Conditions deteriorating in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas as dangerous hurricane Rita approaches....Center of Eye of major hurricane Rita just a few hours from landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border......strong winds and heavy rains battering southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas...

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the national hurricane center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

====GOPA Comments===

See Next 2 Posts.

Rita hasn’t backed down one iota as to intensity and her eye looks better formed in the last 20 minutes.

[GOPAgainstGW]

191. Rita: Current Sat-Images

[GOPAgainstGW]

192. The S**t is Really Starting To Hit The Fan Here.

75 MPH Gusts in Galveston - 55 here in Houston. Just boom in the last 30 minutes. The air pressure here in Houston just started dropping like a rock where we are located, yet it's stable in Galveston?

I'm always amazed how powerful hurricanes can drop air pressure so fast and so strong when they approach. My cat has been acting very wierd for the last two hours. Animals have much higher levels of baroreceptors than humans and that is why they are so acute to pressure changes and it really affects their actions and behavior. Little kids are that way too, but their number of baroreceptors decrease as they get older.

That TWC Rita Water Level Rise Chart is wrong. Everything has shifted to the east 15 miles. 25 miles out in the ocean from the TX-LA State line I was seeing 45 foot waves data, so between the waves and the storm surge we will see what hits the coastline in the next six hours.

There is still VERY significant concern regarding Galveston Bay flooding and storm surge. As you can see it is massive in size yet only 7 feet deep. The Port of Houston is at the North end of the bay. After Hurr Katrina it became the largest shipping port in the Country. Was 2nd before Katrina. Also the 2nd largest number of docked recreational boats in the U.S., is in the Galveston bay area.

[Nothing Without Hope]

195. GOPAgainstGW, you need to transfer this discussion to a new thread.

Put the link in this one and I'll help PM people from this thread so we can get the new one onto the Greatest Page ASAP. Dialup users really can't use this thread now.

You are doing such an important service to us all. I'll spread the word for you on other blogs like dKos if you want.

Thank you very, very much. :patriot:

[GOPAgainstGW]

198. Let's Start a New Thread in 4 Hours At Rita LandFall..........

I'm in Houston and the weather is REALLY going down hill fast the last hour. I need to eat, return a boatload of phones calls and do some other stuff the next couple of hours. I have one more post to make, then that's all for now.

[Nothing Without Hope]

199. OK - but I'm on the East Coast and may not be able to stay awake long

enough to help you get the new thread established on the Greatest Page quickly. If it happens that I have to leave for sleep before you've reposted, I'll PM some people to ask them to check for the new link as soon as it comes up on this thread and boost the new thread so it will be visible. I don't want people to miss what you are doing - it's that valuable and unique.

Just let me know if there is anything else I can do to facilitate this. I plan to PM the people who expressed special interest in this thread plus a couple of friends. I'd rather do it with a link to the new thread, but if need be, I'll just direct them to the end of this thread and tell them that Part II will be starting soon.

You be well, hear? :grouphug:

[GOPAgainstGW]

200. Houston Highways-Ghost Town, Fri-6:30pm 9/23/05 Check it Out!

Here's the live pics I put together of our major highways in Houston at 6:30pm tonight. The pics that say 45 North or 45 Gulf are Interstate 45 that was the total disaster yesterday with a backup of 100 miles North (leading to Dallas), car's out of gas everywhere, and a max temp of 128 degrees on the concrete.

Some of the big highways in the pics carry 150,000 vehicles AN HOUR during rush hour times. Yesterday they ALL were like parking lots and a war zone. Shootings, fights, people passing out from the heat, etc.

[illuminaughty]

205. Great work! Stay safe and hope you have power on return

Did you see fires in Galveston? Historical homes.

My family (evacuated) is just above Lake Charles. Thank God they forced even my sister in law's father out. He's an 80 yr. old Cajun
and didn't want to go. They are in Monroe now.

Others still up in Corrigan. Looks like it will head that way too.

[geomon666]

201. The eyewall is just making landfall

[Rainscents]

203. It looks like wall of eye is going to hit border of TX/LA.. Maybe slightly

more to TX.

[kedrys]

202. West side of Houston, outside the beltway, 20mph winds

gusts up to about 40, I'd say. No rain - the cats are enjoying a last outdoor break in the atrium.

[GOPAgainstGW]

206. ............................

[GOPAgainstGW]

207. Midnight CDT Sat, 9/24/05: NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

Midnight CDT SAT, SEP 24 2005 – 26a
Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 120
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 155
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 11 MPH (D) -1
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 934 MB...27.58 Inches (I)(a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 29.2 north...longitude 93.5 west, 40 miles
south-southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas, along the coast at the border between Texas and Louisiana.
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

====GOPA Comments===

None, busy eating leftover pizza, lol. Actually, slight increase in pressure but Rita is still very solid and highly dangerous as she “pulls into the station”.

LATEST IMAGE

[GOPAgainstGW]

209. More Latest Images

++++END+++++

[GOPAgainstGW]

212. New NHC-Recon Drop -134 MPH in Rita's Eastern Quad Plus......

134 MPH plus 11 MPH forward speed = 145 MPH in Eastern quadrant. Cat 4 equivalent in that area of the hurricane.

=======Lake Charles Radar=======

[Nothing Without Hope]

214. Ah, of course - you add the forward motion to the east side and subtract

it from the west side. Obvious in retrospect - thanks for this vital clarification. More good news for Houston/Galveston, as long as the storm keeps moving and doesn't start drifting toward the southeast as some of the models suggest.

Western Louisiana and extreme eastern TX, on the other hand, are getting hammered.

[Nothing Without Hope]

208. NHC/NOAA Hurricane RITA Public Advisory, MIDNIGHT CST, & a photo

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/240453.shtml

Hurricane RITA Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 240453
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN
AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A
GUST OF 98 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Water Vapor image:

[Nothing Without Hope]

210. Watching the animated WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOP, the eye is coming ashore

inside the "heel" of western Louisiana. Very bad news for those who live there, but it may mean that Houston/Galveston is spared the worst...depending on what the storm does after landfall.

Here's the water vapor satellite image loop (caution to dialup users):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[Rainscents]

211. Wow, thanks for the beautiful yet very deadly loop.

[Nothing Without Hope]

213. Here's the infrared satellite image loop - looks like the eye is hitting

just west of that big inlet shape - don't know its name - in the "heel" of Louisiana. Could be good news for Houston/Galveston, because they are on the weaker (winds from inland) side of the storm and should not see the eyewall at all unless the storm drifts in that direction. I'm no weather expert, but see for yourself:

(Caution to dialup users)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

In this image loop, you can click on the choices at the top, like "radar" and see additional info. "Radar" generally shows local radar in the last time frame. There are other choices as well. By the way, these images are updated every half hour. You'll find quite a collection of them here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[Nothing Without Hope]

215. Currently posted computer model tracking predictions

Note that the models were run at different times - some are much more recent than others. The image is from this page:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

[Nothing Without Hope]

216. Here's the most recent radar animation loop. Looks like the eye hit

squarely on the westernmost parish in Louisiana's "heel."

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z

[geomon666]

217. A nasty looking storm band is about to hit NO.

Not good.

[Nothing Without Hope]

218. Yes, you can see it heading in. Also, the winds are pushing INTO New

Orleans and most of the Louisiana coast, driving the storm surge and increasing the velocity by the speed of the storm itself. On the other hand, so far Houston/Galveston are outside the central eyewall area and are on the side where the winds are pushing AGAINST the storm surge. Also, the wind speed there will be diminished by the forward motion of the storm.

Unless the storm drifts over toward Houston/Galveston, it looks like they've been spared the worst. But a good part of the Louisiana coast, especially that westernmost parish, is getting a tremendous hit. We've heard a lot about the evacuation of the Houston/Galveston area and the fears (unfortunately borne out) for the fragile, damaged New Orleans levees. I have heard very little, though, about those western parishes in the "heel" of Louisiana that are getting the very worst (so far) of this storm.

Here is a map of the Louisiana counties (the page says counties, but aren't they parishes?). Looks like the one I was looking at is Cameron, but there are a number of others that will be devastated by the winds, torrential rains, and storm surge too.

[Rainscents]

219. Poor Louisiana... My heart really goes out to them.

It looks like, they'd gotten one, two punched hurricanes.
I am wondering, how George W is going to handle this one.

[Nothing Without Hope]

220. He doesn't give a damn about Louisiana - just will want to LOOK more

competent and involved this time. Won't do anything real for the people, just make PR noises. Oliphant got it right when Katrina hit:



But Steve Bell got it best of all:



Good night, people, I've had it. I hope the wonderful proprietor of this thread is not suffering a power outage and returns after the tasks he described.

May this storm cause far less suffering than has been feared, and may all who are traumatized find quick healing.

[GOPAgainstGW]

221. PLEASE MAKE ALL NEW POSTS ON THE FOLLOWING NEW THREAD

HURRICANE RITA - Post Landfall 'On The Ground' Reports & More

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4868915

If you have interest, please vote for the new thread. Thank you