NHC Public Advisory #19A (next update at 10:00 a.m. CDT)

[Penndems]

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 221138
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 220843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

IF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO DOING SO. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE PAST 8 HR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE
165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A
INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF
A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF
THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT.

RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND
MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 24.9N 88.0W 150 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W 150 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W 145 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W 140 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


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