Meteorologist Steve Gregory describes Rita as a perfect storm.

[Silverhair]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

PIX 2 - "The 85Ghz pass this evening shows the most impressive
eyewall structure I have ever observed in a storm. The eyewall itself
is extraordinary in it's perfection and intensity."

And this:
PIX 3 - "This enhanced water vapor image shows something rather remarkable. Not only is the eye clear -- it is extremely dry. While all powerful hurricanes exhibit strong subsidence within the eye (which is why there are no clouds), the typical shading on this particular 'curve' is usually black. But this color enhancement is a middle tone brown -- and it has developed over the past 6 hours - meaning that the subsidence in the eye is extremely strong."

And hitting where it will do the most damage:

PIX 6 "The 00Z model runs are still very tightly clustered, but clearly shifted further northward on this latest run. The GFS (NOT shown) agrees with the consensus and bring the center on the coast just to the south of Galveston. This would bring the worst case storm surge to Galveston and the Bay."

If you are leaving, go West, not North.

[phusion]

1. That was at 11 last night

it has since shifted north yet again, is undergoing an eyewall replacement, and will be subject to wind shear on the south side.

Some models project it will be a cat. 3 by landfall...Let's hope so.

[Minstrel Boy]

3. Even weakened it will still carry a Cat 5 storm surge.

From Jeff Masters' latest post:

All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model predicts that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane.

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like her weaker sister Katrina did, will still bring a Category 5 level storm surge along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 20 - 25 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[blitzen]

2. maybe so last night, but it's weakening now

see Jeff Masters blog in the same website

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

it's also heading more toward the east, maybe 100 miles E. of Galveston

[whistle]

4. Wow, those images tell it all....plus 20ft storm surge at Galveston

...and the sea-wall levees around the island are only 17ft some 3 ft below the peak of the storm wave, not good!

[blitzen]

5. worst storm surge will be well to the right/NE of galveston

i'm glad they're evacuating, but i think that folks in galveston have a lot less to worry about than they did yesterday