The Sadr Exit Strategy: US may get its butt kicked out after Shiite schism

[BurtWorm]

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/20050922/badr_vs_sadr.php

...

Sadr is unhappy at the idea of regional federalism in Iraq, since his power is in Baghdad’s eastern Shiite neighborhoods. Since Baghdad is a multi-ethnic city, many of whose citizens are “Sushis” (Sunni-Shiite mixed), it’s impossible to include the capital in a Hakim-style Shiite Republic. So, Sadr opposes both the constitution and its federalism, and he’s hinting that he might support a Sunni-led effort to Vote No on Oct. 15. If he does so, it will kill the constitution, since Baghdad is its own province and would join at least two Sunni-dominated provinces to vote against the constitution. A two-thirds vote against it is needed in at least three provinces.

Sadr’s relationship with Iran is unclear. Starting in 2003, there were reports that Iran’s intelligence service and Revolutionary Guards were funneling at least some help to Sadr, but it seems that most of Iran’s covert energy is going to support the SCIRI-Badr forces. And Iran seems quite content to build up its power and influence among Iraq’s current crop of Shiite rulers. Sadr, meanwhile, appears to be headed in the direction of a tactical alliance with the Sunni-led resistance—which won’t exactly endear him to Iran’s theocracy.

In any case, what it all means is that the relative stability that has been present in Basra and others towns in southern Iraq may be coming to an end. For the first time, there are insurgent attacks reported in Basra. And the British, who had responsibility for Basra, suddenly find themselves sitting atop a powder keg. My guess is that in the general Shiite population there is no great love for SCIRI. On one hand, many Iraqi Shiites are secular and non-religious, and they don’t like SCIRI’s brand of theocracy. On the other hand, many religious Shiites are undoubtedly attracted to Sadr’s flare for anti-U.S. rabble-rousing, which presents a serious threat to SCIRI’s (and Al Dawa’s) ability to hold the allegiance of the Shiites. (In the election in January, the Sadrs and Hakims held their noses and joined together in the Sistani-backed electoral alliance that garnered the most votes at the polls.

Since 2003, the Bush administration’s one hope has been that it can contain the Sunni-led resistance by betting on the Kurdish-Shiite alliance. But if the Shiites shatter, it’s curtains for the Anglo-American occupation. That is the other exit strategy: not the one in which U.S. forces declare victory and withdraw in orderly fashion, but the one in which we get our butts kicked out of Iraq forthwith.

[whistle]

1. It's coming I'm afraid and our troops are the ones at highest risk

...the private military and civilian Americans will al be out of Iraq well before the slaughter begins

[mike_c]

2. look for the coalition to go after Sadr again....

The U.S. is desperate for a puppet gov't that is "legitimized" in terms it can sell back home-- "see, they adopted their own Consitution, just like America did!" Never mind that it's a dysfunctional document that goes a long way toward empowering a theocracy-- it'll still be proof that Iraq has "accepted democracy." Anyone who threatens that will become target number one.

[BurtWorm]

3. What may happen first is that the US's lack of control will become more

and more obvious. Thst's what Dreyfuss thinks will happen, as the situation is southern Iraq between Sadr and the Iranian backed Sistani forces deteriorates.

[mike_c]

4. that might very well be the excuse used to pursue Sadr again....

eom

[BurtWorm]

5. If Sadr is in Basra, that would be an awkward pursuit.

Considering the trouble the Brits are in there.

[mike_c]

6. I think Sadr has learned a great deal from his previous clashes...

...with U.S. forces and the Iraqi puppet gov't. His "martyrdom" will be very expensive, if it's even possible. Anything is possible with enough high explosive, of course, but the human price of doing a Falluja in Basra would be astronomical.

[BurtWorm]

7. Joe Klein was saying this morning that Iraq is relatively low priority

among civilians at the Pentagon these days. Iraq, North Korea and China are higher priority at the DIA, he said. The military is feeling stranded in Iraq.

I wonder, though, if the Pentagon isn't considering using the situation in Basra as an excuse to widen the conflict into Iran. That is a scary thought, considering how poorly the US has been doing in Iraq alone.

[BurtWorm]

8. kick

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

9. Just a matter of time until the US is kicked out.

Which depends on how long the American people are willing to let their kids dies and watch the Great American Empire bankrupt itself in a lost war.

If we want to throw our bloated military weight around we should stick to targets they might be able to handle like Grenada or Utah.

[BurtWorm]

10. I just read this in the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4276598.stm
Ex-Blair envoy gives Iraq warning

The UK and US may have to abandon Iraq if central government breaks down and the country is engulfed by chaos, Tony Blair's former special envoy has said.



Sir Jeremy Greenstock said a pullout from Iraq might be needed if the US and UK had no "reasonable prospect of holding it together".


"If, as the months go by, this proves to be impossible and Iraq looks as though it is breaking down into a mosaic of different local baronies and militias...then I think the coalition will have to think again about its presence."

Sir Jeremy added: "We should withdraw when either the Iraqi government, properly elected, asks us to do so and sees no further reason for us to stay, or the system becomes so chaotic that we don't have any reasonable prospect of holding it together...."

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

11. My bet is that the "properly elected" Iraqi gov't will "ask" us to withdaw

after being told to do so by their bosses in the White House. "Peace with honor", donchya know.

Of course, after the civil war is well under way, the "heroic" Iraqi government puppets will be forced to live in the US as millionaire refugees. Next door to their Vietnamese predecessors.