Rita Is Now A Cat 4

[DemocratSinceBirth]

A weakening storm that hits the least populated area possible would provide us with a much needed break...

[Zynx]

1. Cat 4 is nothing to breathe a sigh of relief about.

Neither is Cat 3 if it gets there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. nope but if it weakens a bit more and hits a less populated area that is

good...

[don954]

3. not good, this gives the eye-wall cycle time to build back up

if it did this tomarrow or right before the landfall, it would have been better. But doing this today could mean that the storm will be at the peek of an eye-wall cycle at landfall.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. it will hit cool water again though...

i am trying to be positive....

prepare for the worst and hope for the best....

[Zynx]

10. Problem is some people look at it "weakening" and assume they are safe

Anything over a Cat 2 is something to get the hell away from. Even a Cat 2 is nothing to sneeze at.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

4. Could it be that it weakens over nighttime when it's a bit cooler?

Would the afternoon heat also crank it up again? Or is the change in temperature between night and day too minor to be a factor?

[skids]

7. IIRC nighttime is when they build.

...something to do with warmth in the upper clouds. My memory is fuzzy though.

[RaleighNCDUer]

15. I think it's the difference between the cooler air at night and the

warm water, which doesn't lose as much heat at night as the air does.

So, yeah, it could build back up again by morning.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It's The Water Not The Ambient Temperature

nt

[skids]

5. Once a cat5, always a cat5.

The storm surge doesn't die with the winds. Katrina taught us that much.

[kick-ass-bob]

8. A better measure of the intensity is the pressure.

edit: 915 MB.

[Zynx]

11. 915 is very low. Not as low as 897, but 897 can not be maitained.

[kick-ass-bob]

12. Yes it is very low.

Andrew was 922.

[kentuck]

13. Maybe the storm surge, the water, slows down the wind?

It seems like when these hurricanes change directions somewhat, they always lose a little speed also. As I recall, Katrina turned back to the East just before it hit Gulfport and Biloxi and went from a Cat 5 to a Cat 4 also? I also heard one expert say that the water surrounding New Orleans was deeper than most of the Gulf coast and that made for largerstorm surges? Makes sense, I guess...

[Jersey Devil]

14. may re-intesify overnight according to this report - new eyewall forming

SEPT 22, 2005 / 12:25 PM

HURRICANE RITA BEGINS EYE WALL REPLACEMENT
LANDFALL FURTHER EAST - GREATEST THREAT HIGH ISLAND,TX TO CAMERON, LA
POST LANDFALL MAJOR FLOOD THREAT

Latest RECON data and satellite imagery confirm that an eye wall replacement cycle has begun, and this has
led to some further weakening in the storm.

The storm is located near 25.4N/88.8W -- and the central pressure has risen to 915mb. In addition, the 18NM
diameter eyewall has just 'opened up' to the SE, revealing the developing outer eyewall with a 45NM diameter.
The MAX winds have also eased back to around 155mph -- a borderline CAT 5 intensity. Even more telling, the
thermal eyewall temp gradient of the INNER eye has dropped to 4°C indicating the inner wall will soon collapse
entirely, and the outer ring of convection will become the primary eye wall. Once that completes (in 2-hrs) -
the new , wider diameter eyewall will begin shrinking down again, and will most likely lead to some
re-intensification of the wind speeds - if not the pressure itself. That would likely occur overnight.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[Kralizec]

16. As much as I want the storm to weaken, this is just the eye-wall...

collapsing. That means that the last cycle (in which the storm went from Cat. 2 to Cat. 5) is over. Once the eye-wall begins to rebuild, it will begin to gain more strength, especially considering where the storm is over the Gulf right now.

[Rainscents]

17. This is NOT good when CAT5 down to CAT4 and still have over

24 hours before the land fall. This mean, it can rebuild the strength much stronger before this thing hit land. This is my understanding.

[soothsayer]

18. Yeah, but she's heading over cooler waters

so should weaken a bit