My predictions for Rita

[benburch]

Rita, now a Cat-4, will intensify to a strong Cat-4 but as soon as the outer bands make landfall will drop to a strong Cat-3.

Simulations say that the storm surge will still be nearly Cat-5 strength, which effect will be amplified in bays and estuaries, where a 15 to 20 foot surge can be expected.

I expect some destruction of port facilities and oil and chemical plants that are located near port facilities.

I expect destruction up river channels and the possible loss of key bridges.

If it strikes a major metro area, such as the Houston/Galveston area, many homes will be destroyed as they are not built to a code that allows for hurricanes.

Much of the electrical infrastructure is above-ground, and much of it will be compromized.

High-rise buildings will lose most of their glazing.

Downpours will cause flash-floods in areas where flooding is rare.

Given that the evacuation is being taken more seriously this time, I expect around 1000 dead only, IF it hits the Houston-Galveston area, less if elsewhere.

Had the evacuation not been heeded, many thousands more would likely have been killed than will now be the case.

[Oreo]

1. The problem with the evac is...

the highways are gridlocked and time is running out. It's taking people 6 hours to go 45 miles

I'm sure plenty of people are staying. I know of a few myself.

[whistle]

4. Gridlock also happened b-4 Katrina hit the Gulf Coast

[DoYouEverWonder]

9. By Sunday evening before Katrina hit, the roads were clear

and they still had 12 hours to go.

[benburch]

12. There is plenty of time to head inland if you leave now!

Even with the gridlock. If it look you 24 hours to get 100 miles inland, you would still beat the storm.

[Cassandra]

2. Is this your new hobby?

[benburch]

7. Weather has been my hobby for years.

I used to chase tornados when I was young and immortal.

[CountAllVotes]

3. I think you present the worst case scenario

I hope you are wrong. :popcorn:

[Mr_Spock]

5. Worst case?

Did you even read his post?

He was being fairly conservative in his estimates and underplaying the potential damage. This hurricane is still a monster and has the potential to cause massive damage. How is this a worst case scenario?

[benburch]

11. God yes...

I was trying to be realistic here. You want a worst case, I'll happily spin one for you;

Worst case is that the eyewall stabilizes some time near midnight and that the storm gets to weak Cat-5 strength and then goes ashore at middle Cat-4 strength.

It goes ashore with the eye slightly south of the Houston-Galveston area, and the Houston-Galveston area is exposed to the stronger North-east quadrant of the storm as the eye passes just to the south. Extensive coastal flooding occurs with port facilities nearly wiped out in the Bay. Extensive damage to oil and chemical plants occurs, with windblown debris punching holes in the reactors and cracking towers that take months to fabricate new. Most houses in the Galveston-Houston area uninhabitable and likely unsalvagable. High-rise buildings have their structures compromised and likely have to be razed after the storm passes. Loss of most bridges, and key railroad yard assets.

The storm moves inland still as a hurricane, and reaches Austin as a Cat-1 where it also causes significant damage in a city wholly unprepared for such an event.

THAT is the worst case, which I think is at this time less than a 10% likelihood.

[CountAllVotes]

13. ok!

I believe you! I swear I believe you!

[shraby]

6. I read wunderground.com too...Dr. Jeff Masters'

blog. They are pretty interesting.

[benburch]

8. Yep! He is one of the best forcasters out there.

I also look at Weather Matrix and some other sites.

[moobu2]

10. We've had 2 Rita storm bands

hit us here in southwest Mobile county Alabama already today. One about 2 hours ago and one just now easing up. Both bands had very heavy rainfall and gusty winds, the second more rain than the first. The first lasted about 10 minutes and this last one about 25. We're under a coastal flood warning from the 2-3 foot surge expected later on. We don’t expect any real problems here at all but we are feeling the effects of Rita already.