Rita pressure : 911 mb & dropping...

[RONSTOO]

no shear effect and hitting the eddy vortex....eyewall tightening up
and should be at cat 5 tonight. :nuke:

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Back up to a cat 5 tonight?

[mandyky]

2. Again??!!

Oh shit!

[stepnw1f]

3. Fluctuating up and Down

Last night Rita's Pressure fell down to .897 mb.

[Zynx]

4. No storm can maintain sub 900 for long.

It rips itself to bits.

[karlrschneider]

7. Um, that would be .897 Bar

:evilgrin:

[TahitiNut]

10. Or 8.97 decibars, right?

:eyes: Or 89.7 centibars. (Hmmm... sounds like candy.)

[karlrschneider]

15. Or .000897 Kilobars!

:D

[RONSTOO]

22. or 897 millibars

:o

[stepnw1f]

23. ding ding ding.... typo

[cynatnite]

5. Will it remain a cat 5 until landfall or go back down to a 4?

It seems like there's little difference between the two at this point, but I'd take any improvement.

[RONSTOO]

9. projected for cat 4 landfall

but will have a cat 5 storm surge due to size and time in water

[incapsulated]

6. It's going to pass over another area of hot water..

before it hits land. It may well go back up to 5 and then back down to 4, who knows.

[kstewart33]

8. Not what I'm seeing on cable news

They're saying it's weakening. What's your source?

[karlrschneider]

12. CNN saying it's strengthening...30 seconds ago

...

[lebkuchen]

CNNI said an hour ago that it wouldn't strengthen again after weakening

I remember CNNI's report about how great it was that the eye had missed NO, and that it would all be over soon, even sunny skies were showing up. I get the feeling the CNNI weather folks don't know a cirrus from a nimbus. Same goes for their anchors' political analyses.

[fishnfla]

14. NOAA says different too

913 and shear forcasted

?

[Zynx]

20. It forecasts a shear, but reintensification possible.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222049.shtml

[RONSTOO]

19. go here

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=138&tstamp=200509&allcomments=1



read the first blog...... alot of mets go here.....most seem to be in general agreement.



Dont go by the tv news

[Zynx]

26. I found the 911number about four posts from the bottom

Made at 9:38 PM GMT
"
000
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
"

[lebkuchen]

11. Isn't that a common occurence before hitting the warm waters near land?

[incapsulated]

16. Actually...

The water near land is cool right now. But there is another patch of warm water that it will pass over right before that, which may be strengthening it now.

[lebkuchen]

21. Why is it cooler, since it's shallower?

Not arguing, just wondering.

[incapsulated]

24. Probably, but...

I'm no meteorologist, heh. I just learned this watching some guy on CNN. It passed over a large area of very warm water, which is static in the gulf, and that's when it got really strong. Then when it moved away from that, it weakened again, but there is a smaller warm patch coming up. The water all around land is blue (cool). Which may be normal for this time of year, I don't know. Hopefully it will weaken it a bit.

[lebkuchen]

27. thanks for the report

[RONSTOO]

28. overall, all water in Gulf is warm...

and those "cool" spots are about 84 deg. Weakening imo was due to replacement of eyewall which after complete cycle tends to restrengthen unless other factors prevent it from doing so.

[incapsulated]

32. Even around the land mass?

I know they said the hot spots are almost 100 deg, but I don't know if "cool" or blue is a relative or a consistant degree.

[Xithras]

34. Actually, currents make it cooler.

As a general rule, the more a body of water moves, the cooler it is. Water in the Carribean gets very warm because it's fairly stagnant and doesn't have a single major current. The Gulf of Mexico, on the other hand, has a large circular current in its western end that keeps the water a bit cooler. The two major exceptions to this are the Carribean finger (a current that carries a "finger" of warmer water from the Carribean into the Gulf between Cuba and the Yucatan) and one little spot in the middle of the current where the water circles but never goes anywhere.

As far as I can tell, the warmer water that it's hitting right now is the Carribean finger current. Track its on should miss the other one.

[doublethink]

13. It has one more patch of 'warm water' ....

to go through is what I heard, which could push it again to a Cat 5 ..... then it hits cooler water before it comes ashore, so hopefully that last patch of cool water will drive it back down to a 4? Anybody's guess. Peace.

[virtualobserver]

17. where do you get such up-to-date info?

n/t

[RONSTOO]

25. go to National Hurricane Center

and read discussions and advisories

[Junkdrawer]

30. 911mb & 133kt flight level winds per Vortex msg...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

[cynatnite]

18. Watching the radar on CNN...

The thing looks huge and it seems like it is sucking up more. Getting bigger all the time. :scared:

[jillan]

29. Now that is a curious number in your OP title

Coincidence or what?

When I clicked on this thread, I didn't think it would be serious.

[RONSTOO]

31. I was thinking same thing

;-)

[Junkdrawer]

33. Infrared loop says it's strenghthening...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html