Isn't the East side of the Hurricane the most dangerous?

[MyUncle]

This storm's track keeps moving Eastward. Most likely it will hit hardest well North/East of Houston. Are the people in the central and western coast of Louisiana moving?

Please someone, get them out of there.

This looks like it could be really bad for them.

[highplainsdem]

1. Northeast quadrant is the most dangerous.

But I'm not sure this storm will make landfall east of Houston. A meteorologist on Fox (which I was watching for the rerun of Donahue's appearance, where he trounced O'Reilly) just said the track is moving west again, and he's predicting it will make landfall at Galveston.

[MyUncle]

2. The media has been all over what is happening in Houston,

just wondering if LA is once again going to not be ready.

[pitohui]

3. louisiana is way more ready than houston, thank you very much

i think it's abt time for the backseat drivers to sit down & shut up

our contraflow plan worked great, we moved a record number of ppl by car

may i point out that the reason texans are sitting in traffic is their authorities fucked up & announced a mandatory evacuation yet they had no contraflow working until this afternoon

some ppl have sat in traffic 12 hours to go less than 60 miles

we don't need to hear any more abt the superiority of yankees or texans

what louisiana & mississippi did to get ppl out was an outstanding achievement

but it has to be shit on because blanco is a democrat...and perry is gop

southwest louisiana is well aware of rita & most of the region is under mandatory or voluntary evac orders

we know perfectly well what is going on

[A-Possum]

15. That's the Accuweather guy

They are making fun of him over on easternuswx.com (eastern weather forum) because Accuweather is trying to sensationalize.

Not that Galveston/Houston are out of the woods, because they aren't. Not at all. But take the Accuweather forecast with a grain of salt. Earlier they were calling the NHC forecast "virtually useless" based on an experimental chart the NHC has on their site. They are playing politics, Geraldo-style. They have since gone back and edited the page. Discussion here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4855375

Stick with the NHC.

[typhoontim]

4. it all depends...

The "strongest" portion of the storm is always the right-front quadrant. So, depending on the direction of motion of the storm, that location will change.

For example, a storm moving straight north will be most intense in the northeast quadrant - right and front of center. A storm moving due west will be strongest in the northwest quadrant, and so on.

Why? It's actually quite simple. Winds around a hurricane move counterclockwise. Take a 100 mph system moving north at 15 mph for example. At landfall, just to the right (east) of center, you'll have the 100 mph winds in the eyewall, added to the forward motion of the system -- 100+15 = 115 mph winds. Plus, that southerly flow will bring the storm surge to that same location.

Now, on the left (west) side of that same system, the 100 mph storm winds will be fighting against the 15 mph forward motion. If you've taken geometry, think two vectors in opposite directions: they cancel each other out. So, there would be surface winds of 100-15= 85mph there. And, it would be an offshore flow, thus no storm surge.

A little long-winded, I know... that's what you get with a resident meteorologist! hahaha.

[marions ghost]

10. good explanation

thanks for breaking that down, I didn't quite understand it that way before.

[Lisa]

12. "long-winded" -- hah! Welcome to DU, typhoontim!

Evidently you've passed the "can you drop a pun before your 5th post" test!

[soup]

13. Welcome to DU, typhoontim.

:hi:

Not long-winded at all and very well said.

[winga222]

18. Thanks, that makes it a bit easier to follow

:hi: Welcome to DU. You'll love it here.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi typhoontim!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[dweller]

5. local news tease just chimed in

"Rita has changed directions. Tune in at 11 to see what this means"

so i checked here, your's was the latest post.

anyone know the latest details?

dp

[highplainsdem]

6. CNN, right now, saying Rita's track is moving west again.

Which agrees with what I heard on Fox half an hour ago. Moving back toward Galveston.

[dweller]

8. thanks, the background graphic

of the news tease looked like it was a northern projection, which may the the older, not newer direction...

guess i'll check at 11.

dp

[soup]

17. Local (Houston) stations online with continuous coverage

ABC13
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/

direct Windows Media Player link:
http://ktrktv.wm.llnwd.net/ktrktv_live

--

and, as with Hurricane Katrina, KHOU is an excellent source for coverage:
http://www.khou.com/

--

edit to add:
KPRC-TV (NBC)
http://www.click2houston.com/index.html

[typhoontim]

7. "latest"

I'm not sure why they haven't said too much about this yet, but the last three runs of some of the various computer models are showing a disturbing trend.

While the landfall forecast (between Galveston, TX and Cameron, LA) still looks good, many of the models are showing a huge slowdown of the system just after landfall, followed by a VERY slow meander towards the west and west-southwest. This could spell disastrous flooding for the entire region as Rita just sort of sits and spins out in the same general location. We could be talking rainfall amounts of 15-30 inches if this new trend indeed verifies.

Anyone remember Allison back in 2001? 20+ inches of rain out of that system... and that was "only" a tropical storm! This is a full-fledged major hurricane with a large storm surge associated with it.

Not good.

[highplainsdem]

9. Tim, they have been mentioning that stalling.

And what I heard on CNN is that the same ridge that will cause the stalling is pushing Rita west again.

First mention I saw of the likelihood of torrential rainfall was on Jeff Masters' blog on Wunderground.com last night. Think he said it might mean 30 inches of rain as far north as Dallas.

[dweller]

11. welcome typhoontim

:hi: good to see a res. weather geek in the house.

i know Ophelia did some of the same, just sit and spin on NC coast recently, and that was cat1-cat2? lots of water, thankfully no major devastation like Rita could deliver.

dp

[highplainsdem]

14. Yes, welcome to DU!

:hi:

[pitohui]

16. i have heard mention of this sad possibility

i was out of the usa during allison so didn't really grok the full awfulness of this tropical storm until recently

[ForrestGump]

20. The biggest hurricane that I've yet been in slammed my island

with its northeast edge, at first, and the winds on its other side (blowing a different direction, also, not that there's much shelter on a relatively low-lying island) were still strong but noticeably weaker. It's all relative, though...those winds on its southwest edge were still pretty fearsome. That storm was a direct hit, right in the middle, and the weirdest thing of all -- and it was preternatural in its sudden calm and the rather odd air pressure sensations and sound quality -- was being right in the eye of that monster for a while.