latest Rita report from NOAA (10 pm CDT)

[msongs]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230304
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY
CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.
RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A COMPLETE RING OF
VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C... NOW SURROUNDS THE
EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 917 MB AS
MEASURED BY THE MOST RECENT DROPSONDE. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL AND
DROPSONDE WIND DATA DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN ABOUT
110 KT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 120 KT. RITA IS ABOUT TO PASS
OVER ANOTHER EDDY OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. COMBINING THIS WITH
THE POSSIBLE CONTRACTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER ON FRIDAY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

ALTHOUGH RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS
REMAINED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 300/9. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...SINCE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRADDLE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RITA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH
TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY
STALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THIS SCENARIO
POSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY
DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Dora]

1. kick

[KharmaTrain]

2. Good Bad Good Bad...

Looks like the storm has lessened...918mb compared to 899 earlier today...Good

But there's a pool of warm weather still to come that and a collapsing eyewall so it'll strengthen over night...Bad

Looks like they're expecting cooler water and some upper level winds that should affect it before landfall...Good

It's still predicted to be a Cat. 3...at least 130 plus MPH winds at landfall somewhere between Galveston and Port Arthur.

No mention here about storm swells...or if there's been any recent measurements of the waves on the southeast well.

Thank goodness for NOLA the eastward trek has stopped...might not be that big of a storm surge into that area after all.