RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 3...

[Mr_Spock]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/231452.shtml?

000
WTNT43 KNHC 231452
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND
THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND
WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING
THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR
RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM
EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
RESPONSE. NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.

UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE
INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE
EYE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[WiseButAngrySara]

1. This is 'relatively' good news! So Galveston and Houston will be

somewhat spared?

[KittyWampus]

9. IIUC, the water build up is still there and there's no steering currents

to move Rita away.

They could be facing 2 days of torrential downpours.

[WiseButAngrySara]

15. Hope it's not a repeat of Alicia! I was there for that one....n/t

[Straight Shooter]

2. Thank God, thank the Heavens, thank the Universe, thank whatever.

I was really hoping for this, a calming of Rita. And the icing on the cake is that bush doesn't get to play hero. :D

[Stephanie]

7. second that

let it weaken even more - this has been terrifying

[deutsey]

3. Still sucks that hurricane will hit them, but a 3 is better than a 4 or 5

[Mz Pip]

4. What was Katrina when it hit?

A 3 can still be catastrophic if it hits in the wrong place. The size of this hurricane, along with its force could still be pretty devestating.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[Mr_Spock]

5. It's still gonna cause some oil rig hardships and flooding

But it is hitting east of Galvaston/Houston and weakened - it shouldn't be nearly as catastrophic as Katrina. These places are above sea level...

[Stephanie]

6. Katrina was Cat 4

right?

[klook]

8. Sure, Category 3 is no big deal; just like Ivan

From NOAA web site:

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

Take a look at some of what Hurricane Ivan did last year:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/guides/hurricane/galleries.shtml

True, Cat 5 is much worse, but Cat 3 is still really bad.

[Mr_Spock]

11. Simply cut and pasted NOAA text...

not making any judgements...

[klook]

12. Sorry, not meaning to rag on you...

Just wanted everyone to see that Category 3 is still a major hurricane.

[Mr_Spock]

14. Absolutely, I agree - a big dangerous storm...

I do think this is news though - we may have more deaths due to the evacuation that hurricane though - maybe an interesting twist. We shall see soon enough...

[jsamuel]

10. Watch out for a CAT 5 STORM SURGE though!!!

[DemNoir]

13. Who knows how good it is?

We heard all this "weakening" stuff about Katrina also.Weakening does not mean weak.

[Gloria]

16. Hurricane Watch Net--also mentioned 25 inches of rain

in the area from Port Arthur LA to Alabama, including Metro NOLA, over the next few days...
if I heard that right via shortwave radio!



details:


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