Weather gurus..Is this the next one?

[SoCalDem]

more at

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

[Mutley]

1. Could be.

Looks like it has the basic elements. But at this point it could go anywhere or do anything.

[SoCalDem]

2. I am a bit concerned about Philippe..

It's "scheduled" to go north, but it's been hanging around in almost the same place...for DAYS and DAYS...

I wish he would get busy and head north..asap

[Mutley]

3. Right!

I've been keeping an eye on that. He's in a position that if he decides to come toward the US he could end up coming my way. But luckily, the waters off my state are too cold for a hurricane to stay a hurricane for long.

[halobeam]

4. Seems it's going to dissipate.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 231425
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN
FASTER. PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE
EVEN SOONER.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA. EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT
OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 31.1N 63.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 31.5N 66.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED

[happyslug]

5. Phippe is caught by the Gulf Stream.

Just like Lee, Maria and Nate were. Once caught in the Gulf Stream the Storm is pulled to Iceland or England.

Atlantic storms that hit the US East Coast always go along the coast i.e. Between the Coast and the Gulf Stream, for once Captured by the Gulf Stream they become nothing but a hazard to navigation.

Thus Philippe has long been captured by the Gulf Stream and may last a few more weeks, but it will NOT hit the US Coast line.

The next storm (Stan) may be this one reported by the NOAA but looks a little to far North to NOT be captured by the Gulf stream. Both Katrina and Rita become Tropical Depressions further South and West than this storm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/145649123_sm.gif

[KoKo]

6. SoCal...I found this from Weather Underground.

Just now this showed up from Dr. Jeff Masters (who has been reliable).


Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Storm Philippe is a minimal tropical storm that may bring 30 mph winds to Bermuda, but is expected to die by Saturday. A strong tropical disturbance near 11N 30W, off the coast of Africa, has acquired a circulation and some deep convection. This system has the potential for development the next few days as it moves west to west-northwest over the Atlantic. Another area of disturbed weather 500 miles south of Bermuda also needs to be watched. Long range computer models do not show a threat to land from either of these systems in the next five days.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html