Good News: Looks like Rita is undergoing serious weakening....

[Junkdrawer]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The eyewall seems to have collapsed and I think I see it entraining some dry air...

Let's hope this is the start of a trend...

The queer thing is that the latest Vortex (hurricane hunter) data shows the storm regaining strength at 931mb and 124kt flight level winds...

000
URNT12 KNHC 231730Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1700Z
B. 27 DEG 38 MIN N
92 DEG 08 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 180 DEG 124 KT
G. 089 DEG 18 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 16 C/ 2200 M
J. 20 C/ 2653 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C30
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 WX18A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 124 KT E QUAD 1654Z
FIX AT 8,700 FT PRESSURE ALTITUDE

[Oreo]

1. From what I heard

The eye wall collapses and then rebuilds. The water closer to land is also warmer. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it will die out but I won't believe it until I see it. What could be worse than the wind and storm surge is if it stalls like Allison did.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Rita completed an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. The inner eyewall completely collapsed, and an outer eyewall 35 miles in diameter took its place. During the time, the pressure rose to 927 mb, and remained constant at that level between 4:30 am and 8 am EDT. The hurricane hunters noted no increase in surface winds, which remained at about 140 mph. They did note that the eyewall was beginning to contract again, which may signal the beginning of an intensification cycle. Rita is over warm waters (30C) which are warm to a great depth. Thus, the amount of heat available for intensification is high (see plot below). By this afternoon, Rita will be passing over waters that are still warm, but are shallow, so the amount of heat available to draw energy from is much lower. This should end any intensification. In addition, 10 - 15 knots of shear is impacting Rita's south side, and one can see from satellite images the lack of high cirrus clouds on her south side that results from this shear. This shear is expected to increase to 25 knots by Saturday morning, and the combined effect of the shear and the lower heat content of the ocean beneath her should prevent her from making landfall any stronger than she is now (Category 4), and may act to weaken her to a Category 3 hurricane.

[Junkdrawer]

2. Even if the winds die down, the storm surge and rain from this will..

be awful.

[KyndCulture]

3. Hurricanes don't just die that close to land.

The warmer the water the more intense they get... She is moving into the shallows that are much warmer. All the meteorolgists are saying this collapse signals a strengthening, not weakening.

[LostinVA]

5. Shallow water usually weakens a hurricane n/t

[DemNoir]

4. The DU weather team of "experts" is at it again

Just look back at all the DU forecasters pronouncements of Katrina's "weakening" to see what I mean.

[Junkdrawer]

7. NHC: "...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND..."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/231748.shtml

[Jose Diablo]

6. Yeah, but

It's heading in a more northward direction, I'd say its projected landfall is now just west of Marsh Island.

With the northeast quadrant directly over New Orleans, if it stays a cat 3, they will get hit very hard again.