Hurricane Rita's eye has reformed

[shraby]

<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html>

[henslee]

1. Thats a bad thing right?

[shraby]

2. They are discussing it on this blog

<http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=140&tstamp=200509#commenttop>

[geomon666]

5. Yes that's a bad thing.

It's a sign of strengthening.

[rbajai]

21. yikes...

new orleans flooding a bit again...rain & wind...oh man.

[adarling]

3. Bad thing

Andrew did the same thing and intensified. It may be shallower water, but its pretty damn warm and i don't think we have seen the last of the 4 or maybe 5 levels. This is a monster and its getting ready to attack

[Angry Girl]

4. I think it's expected, a cyclical thing - check it out here...

Rita completed an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. The inner eyewall completely collapsed, and an outer eyewall 35 miles in diameter took its place. During the time, the pressure rose to 927 mb, and remained constant at that level between 4:30 am and 8 am EDT. The hurricane hunters noted no increase in surface winds, which remained at about 140 mph. They did note that the eyewall was beginning to contract again, which may signal the beginning of an intensification cycle. Rita is over warm waters (30C) which are warm to a great depth. Thus, the amount of heat available for intensification is high (see plot below). By this afternoon, Rita will be passing over waters that are still warm, but are shallow, so the amount of heat available to draw energy from is much lower. This should end any intensification. In addition, 10 - 15 knots of shear is impacting Rita's south side, and one can see from satellite images the lack of high cirrus clouds on her south side that results from this shear. This shear is expected to increase to 25 knots by Saturday morning, and the combined effect of the shear and the lower heat content of the ocean beneath her should prevent her from making landfall any stronger than she is now (Category 4), and may act to weaken her to a Category 3 hurricane.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[shireen]

14. shear?

cane someone explain what "shear" is, as referenced in Angry Girl's post?
thanks!

[geomon666]

17. Here you go.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/whshear/whshear.htm

How winds can rip apart a hurricane

Wind right above the ocean blowing in a different direction from strong winds thousands of feet above can rip apart even the strongest hurricane as they push the storm's bottom and top in different directions.

Winds blowing in different directions, or at different speeds create what meteorologists call wind shear.

As hurricane forecasters try to figure out whether a tropical storm or hurricane will weaken or grow stronger, they look at projections of winds at all altitudes around the storm to see whether wind shear is likely.

Normally during hurricane season, winds at all altitudese in the tropics blow generally from east to west. Changes in weather patterns can create high-level winds blowing opposite to those near the ocean. For instance, a trough can dip down into the tropics to bring high-altitude winds blowing from the West. Also, the global weather pattern know as El Niño tends to create west-to-east high-level winds over the tropics of the Atlantic and Caribbean. This is why fewer hurricanes, especially strong hurricanes occur during El Niño years.

[shireen]

19. thanks Geomon66 & Angry Girl!! Fascinating ... but deadly. :-( n/t

[Angry Girl]

18. when two things pressed together and you move one across

the other, it creates forces. These forces can slow things down. Like two pieces of sandpaper have greater shear forces than two slick pieces of plastic.

The air on the outer part of the hurricane creates shear forces with the air it moves through, I would imagine.

[Lex]

6. All hurricanes go through cycles of eyewall re-building and

eroding.

Rita just went through a phase of eyewall erosion and is now entering the re-building phase.

It's better if the storm hits land during a phase of eyewall erosion, obviously, because it's a little weaker then.

[Horse with no Name]

7. yep.

"luckily"(?) Katrina hit before her eye wall formation was complete.

[Rainscents]

9. You're very right... This one (Rita) erosion almost 36 hours ago and this

is giving her time to regroup and reform. Which Katrina didn't get a chance, her eye erosion 8 hours before the land fall.

[Rainscents]

8. It looks like, eye is heading straight to Huston.

[spindrifter]

10. What is the pressure reading + A Real Qs.

The eye should be over warmer water--I think 30 C, so pressure in the eye may drop. Wind shear at the top may weaken Rita.
I thought NHC was pretty sure landfall was going to be 75 mi. up the coast from Houston.

Since Rita is supposed to stall once it hit land for several days, dropping maybe up to 15" of rain, what is the impact going to be on the Mississippi River--like where it empties back out in the Gulf--and in NOLA? I haven't seen any discussion of this.

[acmejack]

11. Last I saw was 931, that is older information, 1400 EST

[Horse with no Name]

13. Right now the projected stall area is

basically over my house,lol.
It will be Southwestern Oklahoma, Southeastern Arkansas and Northeastern Texas. Our local weather report said this am we could 6-10" of rain here, up to a foot of rain in Texarkana.
I'd be more afraid of the Red, Trinity, Sabine, Neches and Angelina Rivers right now than the Mississippi.

[Dover]

16. Yeah, keep your bailing buckets handy. It's also supposed to backtrack

due to an incoming northern front, and those in Central Texas are being told that next week will likely bring some very heavy rains and flooding to the area.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi spindrifter!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[necso]

12. Wunderground is worth checking out,

although they were (are?) showing the visible satellite data at night for Rita (which means dark areas, depending on the particulars of the hour -- at least when I checked the last time). (You generally use IR at night and can show a (some) composite as "the" pic, so as to always show something.)

Dr Masters' Rita blog has been quite good.

[mshasta]

15. she is having her PMS....

:scared: