Above-average voter attendence expected = more Democrats

[Paragon]

I think this (defeat of the recall) could still happen, folks. Keep your hopes up.

[ewagner]

1. If....

the democratic voters show up, we could win.........

if........

the democratic party did a good job with absentee applications, we could win........

I'll probably chew through the end of my pipe before the day is over!

on edit: oone thing I am sort of hanging my hat on is the committment of Arhnould's supporters. I don't know how many were just committed to the spectacle and how many would really put in enough effort to go to the polls.

[buckfush2]

4. yes it seems that this is turning into a real mess

I can envision a bunch of 20-something "dudes" heading to the polling place. They took the day off for this. They've never voted before, so they aren't sure where it is. They get there and discover they're at the wrong one. They find the right one, and there's a line a mile long. They stay to chat up some babes in the line awhile, but then find out the chicks are all voting against arnold. The dudes get tired of the whole scene, head out and smoke a fat one....

Multiply x a million........

[Democrats unite]

2. I still have my hopes up...

But then again I'm still waiting for Gore to Live in the White House! I just can't let it go.

[fizzana]

3. One potential drawback to that theory is the nature of this election

A lot of the new voter registrations are by people who normally don't vote but are enthralled enough by the nature of this election which is to remove someone from office instead of elect someone to office.

These people are neither Democrats or Republicans and while they distrust all government they're normally not inclined to do anything about it, however, now they have the chance to not only vote out Gray Davis who is a political animal through and through but they also get to vote for a buffoon like the Groper. These people don't even believe that the Groper will do any better either.

In the end, they're not voting for anything, just against something and that is a dynamic that's never been present in previous elections.

[gristy]

6. That's been the motivation for many people

to vote ever since I can remember.

they're not voting for anything, just against something and that is a dynamic that's never been present in previous elections.

[Tempest]

9. Not many new voters registered

An article in yesterday's newspaper said that less than 3 million new voters were registered.

Out of 26 million registered voters, 3 million is a drop in the bucket.


On Edit:

Boy, was I way off. That's what I get for not checking first.

There are 15 million registered voters, and only just over 300,000 new registrations.

[Sephirstein]

12. It's over 10%

Most crucial elections are decided by far less than that.

[treefrogjohn]

5. Long lines at my polling place

They seemed even longer than the last presidential (s)election. I had to wait in line for over 10 minutes. Definitely longer than the usual statewide elections where I typically just walk right in to the precinct worker table and get my ballot. (Gotta love those punch cards). I sure hope this means a lot of folks are mad as hell at the Repubs for forcing this nonsense on our state.

[neomonkey]

11. My polling place was a ghost town

...this morning.

I was expecting long lines and anxious voters, instead I found a few people milling about and empty booths. I vote in a largely Hispanic area and I sure hope that what I saw this morning was an anomaly or I might be hurting tomorrow.

[dolstein]

7. Unfortunately, many Democrats support the recall

and Arnold.

It is far from clear that a higher turnout benefits Davis.

[Tempest]

8. Not any I know of

I don't believe many Democrats support the recall.

There's a few, but far from many.

[dkamin]

10. dolstein

are you a republican? it seems like many of your comments are anti-democrat.

i'm much more optimistic about voter turnout. every sociologist in this country states that non-voters are overwhelmingly more in favor of democrats than republicans. high voter turnout is why gore got the majority in 2000, even though the polls had him losing substantially. he went from being +1% in CA pre-election among "likely voters" to winning the state by like 8%, off the top of my head.

[West Coast Democrat]

13. I don't know whether he's a Republican

bu he seems to want Arnold to run for President.

[slackmaster]

16. Arnold can't run for President

At least not until the 61st Amendment is passed to make an exception just for him.

[slackmaster]

15. Latest survey I saw showed 30% of Dems in favor of the recall

n/t

[Selwynn]

14. Depends

Often low turnouts favor Dems in California. This time however, its really hard to say. High turnouts may be anti-arnold folks. They may not be.

Also "high turnout" is a bit of a misnomer - this is not a standard election. There is not "recall" election to compare turnout too in order to call it high or low.

What is true historically is this: Democrats vote early. I know it sounds funny but I promise you it has historically been statistiaclly true. So pray for like... a power outage or something at about 4:00pm :)