Folks.. check my math and logic on this please....

[MazeRat7]

Population of the US: 295,734,134
Daily Gasoline Consumption for the US:320,500,000 gal.
Estimated total number of vehicles on the road evacuating:3,000,000
Estimated gasoline consumption per evacuating vehicle: 20gal. (maybe much higher)
Estimated number of people evacuating: 5,000,000

Given that: it appears to me that just under 2% of the US population has just consumed 20% of the average daily demand (and that is going in only one direction). Buy the time these poor folks get home, this will of course have doubled.

So, given that we are basically seeing an unplanned spike in consumption (and considering refineries were at peak production before some shut down due to the storms)... any educated guesses on how/when we will recover from this "unplanned" excess consumption ? Considering we are about to enter the holiday season (more increased consumption), my bet is sometime next summer. Until then, I think we can expect soaring gas prices, long lines, and hot tempers. Remember what that situation did to Carter ?

MZr7

[Rabrrrrrr]

1. Your math seems good, unless your numbers are wrong

Otherwise, I think you caught it pretty well. Granted, the evacuees are using their gas over a number of days, and not just all in one day, but still the idea is right - all of a sudden, 5 million people just decided to go take a long driving trip.

I figure maybe 5 years before we receover.

This is gonna be a BIG fucking mess, though I bet they'll figure out a way to get the gas prices to go down just a day or two before Christmas, to make everyone's holidays a little brighter, before ramming them back up after new year's.

[ThomWV]

2. I Think Your Daily Fuel Consumption Is Way Off

I don't know where you got your 320,500,000 gallon per day of gas use number but it sounds way way off to me, by about one order of magnatude.

[MazeRat7]

4. From this page...

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

Found lots of other pages that showed crude oil consumption.. but not that many that showed recent gasoline consumption figures.

MZr7

[rzemanfl]

3. These people would have been using gas on a normal day,

although not as much, the "spike" is inconsequential in comparison to the production lost from the two hurricanes. At least that's my read on it.

[xray s]

5. well.. once they get to where they are going....

...they are going to have to sit and wait. no commuting to work, or going to the the mall. basically all commuting in two major metropolitan areas will be at a dead stop (Houston and NOLA), as well as all activity in many smaller communities.

then a bunch of people will join the others in LA and MS that are out of work, further cutting back conumption of gas.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Whatever the figures, consider what evacuated people do next

probably very little, for a few days. So their share of the consumption is less than normal - so the overall effect is probably not much. Prices and supply are more likely to be affected by the temporary or permanent loss of rigs and refineries in the Gulf area, because that happens over a lot more than 2 days.

[tech3149]

7. You could also consider traffic effect on mileage

Sitting in gridlocked traffic for hours would severely reduce mileage unless you had enough sense to turn off the engine. All in all probably nothing more than mental masturbation, but there's nothing wrong with that. Keep in shape any way you can.

[Joebert]

8. Add in having to run the car for A/C in 95+ degree heat...

Crap MPG. What a disaster.

No matter what the numbers, a lot of fuel, pollution, and frustration out there.