Do high turnouts favor Democrats?

[mac56]

That's what I've always heard. Is it true?

Since the Repugs are (allegedly) better at mobilizing their base, it would seem that the Repug base votes every time, no matter what. It seems logical to me then that a turnout that surpasses just the base will include more Dems, and the higher it goes the more Dems will be included.

Does anyone have anything firm on this?

[LeftCoast]

1. In CA

Dem registrations are significantly higher than Rep, so if turnout is high more Dem's come out to vote.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. My prediction?

Davis defeats the recall.

73% to 27%.

Bustamante leads the YES on the recall candidates. Ahhnold finishes with a dismal 19%. McClontick (whatever his name is) is right behind at 18%.

Hawkeye-X

[Cha]

4. I forgot about what Joefree did the other day with the "Drummer"!

[Cha]

5. Thank you, Joefee!

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Wow! That would be awesome!

How's your track-record for predicting elections?

[Selwynn]

9. Are you smoking crack?

73%?

:wow:

[einsteins stein]

11. Thats a BOLD Prediction!

I hope you underestimated :-)

[dkamin]

3. yes

the counterargument is that independents can go either way, and that arnold is more like jesse ventura than a republican.

but right now, non-voters trend overwhelmingly democrat.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Only if they get to vote

and then only if those votes count. And it is sad that I should have to say this due to events 3 years ago.

[Selwynn]

7. NO - statistically speaking

Low turnouts favor democrats.

*puts his political operative cap back on*

What you want truthfully is high morning turnout, and low afternoon/evening turnout. Democrats vote early.

[einsteins stein]

12. Naww, Really?

Got a source on that?

[Gman]

10. Generally, yes

because Democrats aren't always prone to vote. If it's a nice day Dems that may not normally vote, will go vote. Which is why the general belief has always been that Republicans pray for rain on election day.