ABC News has interesting numbers on some returned absentee ballots in Ca.

[CMT]

This was in ABC News: The Note.

LA county thru Sunday had the following number of absentee/early voting ballots returned from 165,493 Democrats and 123,789 Republicans.

Contra Costa Co. had 44,418 absentee/early voting ballots returned from Dems and 35,663 from Republicans.

Alameda Co. had 54,100 ballots returned from Democrats and 21,805 from Republicans.

Now these are all Dem leaning counties, but it indicates that Democrats may be motivated by this recall election. Of course there are no statistics about who these voters voted for but it is encouraging.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

[Gman]

1. If 30% of Democrats support the recall the vote is a dead heat

in the absentee ballots...

which is a good thing because Gropegate seems to have taken a lot of the Teflon off of Ahnold. Hence, the recall may well lose on election day.

[kentuck]

2. If I was a Democrat in California, I would be pissed...

That they were trying to negate my vote from just last November...I'm not even a Californian and I'm pissed anyway.

[fob]

3. You are, I assume, an American, and as such deserve to be

as pissed as we Californians!

[rasputin1952]

4. Ain't that the truth!...

n/t

[arcane1]

8. I am, and am quite pissed

I wasn't crazy about voting for Davis last year, but I DAMNED SURE don't appreciate having to do it again, just because ONE RICH MAN didn't like the results...

[Cha]

5. Bless the Dems Hearts in California...I feel for them....hell, I

feel for myself!

[madfloridian]

6. Is that the county where the machines are not working?

http://www.BBVreport.org

Just saw something in the forum there. Link redirects.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

7. Just talked with four folks...

here in SF who had voted absentee -- all against the recall.

The counties that have to be looked at are Orange, San Diego, Kos Angeles, and Riverside. Those were the counties where almost half of the total recall signatures were gathered.

[FlaGranny]

15. Hehe!

Total Recall?

Edit: That's what the campaign to recall Arnold can be called if he should win this stupid recall election.

[zbdent]

9. On another thread, someone said that their CA roommates

just got their absentee ballots.

If they get it filled out and postmarked as of today, would it still be valid? We know that it will not be counted (if the hometown was in the realm of possibly a Dem vote).

[xxqqqzme]

14. fill out the ballot, seal the envelope,

sign 'n date the envelope and turn it in @ a polling place - walk in and hand it to a poll worker - DO NOT get in line - turn it in NOW!

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

16. Must be RECEIVED today NOT POSTMARKED today

[AP]

10. Alamada and Contra Costa Voter Registration figures:

Alameda
Dem: 551,778 (64%) Rep: 159,403 (18%) Ind: 156,197 (18%)

(In 2000, Gore got about 75% of 416,000 votes, with about 48% turnout)

Contra Costa
Dem: 244,315 (53%) Rep: 159,872 (35%) Ind: 53,917 458 (12%)

(In 2000: Gore got about 62% of 306,000 votes, and about 67% of registered voters voted)


So, it looks like in Contra Costa, 55% of absentee balloters were Dems, which is in a slightly higer proportion than the representation in the population, and in Contra Costa, 71% of absentee balloters were Democrats, which is also a higher proportion than their representation among all registered voters.

I would bet that Democrats are less likely to vote absentee. So these numbers are encouraging.

It's important to note that both of these counties are in the Bay Area, which is predominantly Democratic.

[AP]

11. Alamade and Contra Costa Voter Registration figures:

Alameda
Dem: 551,778 (64%) Rep: 159,403 (18%) Ind: 156,197 (18%)

(In 2000, Gore got about 75% of 416,000 votes, with about 48% turnout)

Contra Costa
Dem: 244,315 (53%) Rep: 159,872 (35%) Ind: 53,917 458 (12%)

(In 2000: Gore got about 62% of 306,000 votes, and about 67% of registered voters voted)


So, it looks like in Contra Costa, 55% of absentee balloters were Dems, which is in a slightly higer proportion than the representation in the population, and in Contra Costa, 71% of absentee balloters were Democrats, which is also a higher proportion than their representation among all registered voters.

I would bet that Democrats are less likely to vote absentee. So these numbers are encouraging.

It's important to note that both of these counties are in the Bay Area, which is predominantly Democratic.

[TLM]

12. THere are a lot of far right repukes who will vote no on the recall

just to keep arnold out.

[West Coast Democrat]

13. Do any reports mention Independents?

I think these are the voters Arnold is counting on.

[proud patriot]

17. Contra Costa Is Right Leaning for the Bay Area !

Wooo Hooooo ....This is great NEWS .....Yes ! Yes !

[radfringe]

18. "folk wisdom"?

have heard more than one Dem pundit say that the higher the turn out the better it is for Democratic candidates...

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20031006110109990016

--snip---

Although more than 2 million people had already voted by absentee ballot, officials were expecting lines throughout the state, especially because polling places were consolidated to accommodate the short time officials had to prepare for the vote.

Secretary of State Kevin Shelley declined to estimate the turnout because this election has no precedent, but his office reported last week that a record number of voters for a gubernatorial race - 15,380,526 - were registered for Tuesday's vote.