|
Edited on Sat Sep-24-05 01:31 PM by Lexingtonian
but there's an issue of timing. People who have spent a generation or so assured that the GOP is emotionally their home- and that's what the whole moderate center of the political spectrum has tacitly or overtly believed, if you're honest about it- will go through a grieving process when that Faith goes lost. It's as traumatic as a death in the family.
Psychologically, you can't show up at the funeral of their old Beliefs and, displaying all the goods all gussied up, tell them to cut the grief and that it's time to get hitched a second (or third) time next week. Even if they're near Acceptance it's wise to allow the courtship to begin slowly and certainly unwise to begin it while they're in Bitterness or Depression or Bargaining phases. And certainly utterly foolish to try anything while they're still in Denial.
The way to look at it is what happened to the Dixiecrats in 1965-68. They left the FDR Democrats over the course of a year or two, but it took a while into Nixon's first Presidential term- maybe four or five years in all- for him to bring them all over into the Republican Party. That first election or two after crackup is affected or won by defectors not showing up, by their wandering around in limbo. In 1992 and '94 and '96 Perot provided the perfect intermediate group for the last conservative Democrats leaving the Party; by '98 and '00 most of them were solidly assimilated as Republicans (though, as a very elderly demographic, a lot of them simply died away during the Nineties and most of them are gone now, I think).
|