Our next potential tropical disaster in the making

[Horse with no Name]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/262132.shtml

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

...CORRECTED DATE IN HEADER...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

[malaise]

1. We're watching that carefully since this morning

Jamaica is in its sights and should it become a TS or worse, its name will be Stan. Male hurricanes love Jamaica. I can't take much more of the 2005 hurricane season.

Our worry is the HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
edit -sp.

[Catherine Vincent]

2. Make a new plan Stan!

Please!

[WritingIsMyReligion]

3. :) n/t

[teach1st]

4. Early models

[Horse with no Name]

5. Which is historically the most accurate?

This one looks like Mexico may get it.

[malaise]

9. Geez

Don't you see three models going through Jamaica!!
edit to three

[nashville_brook]

6. Tropical Wave sounds like a yummy drink (pinapple, mango, etc)

maybe some dark rum.

seriously, though. i have bad feelings about "one more storm" this year.

[HeeBGBz]

7. Crap, that's another one that could head into the Gulf

[Horse with no Name]

8. weatherunderground.com possibly in Gulf by Saturday as a TS

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/


An upper-level low pressure system over Cuba is forecast to weaken and move northwards during the next three days, which would lessen the shear over the disturbance and steer it more to the northwest, as seen in the early track model forecast from the BAMM model, shown below. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. These model results are not reliable, given that the disturbance has split in two and that this was not anticipated by the models.

I give this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday.

[malaise]

10. Latest on Tropical Wave

The strong Tropical Wave in the Caribbean has slowed down from 15Kts to under 10Kts, and in so doing, has become considerably more organized in it's overall structure and concentration of convection -- which has now taken on a circular pattern to the southeast of Jamaica. The very broad
area of low pressure that dominated the central Caribbean yesterday, as confirmed by numerous surface reports, appears to have become better defined and is a closed circulation.

Satellite imagery and surface reports indicate the most likely surface circulation center is near 14.5N/75.1W. The very latest Buoy report from at 15N/75W indicated winds went from ENEat midnight, to N by 8AM CDT, & just in the past hour, have swung around now to WSW indicating the passage of a closed low pressure center very close that location.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html