Seymour Hersh reported a few weeks ago that the Pentagon was getting reports of a massive Tet-type offensive being planed AND THAT THE ARAB OIL PRODUCERS WERE GOING TO ADD AN OIL EMBARGO TO THE OFFENSIVE (i.e. when the US counterattacks and starts killing a lot of Iraqis, the Arab countries all tell the US they will NOT ship OIL out till the US stops killing Iraqis (Please note it is a threat to cut ALL oil production not just oil exports to the US).
Remember only in August 2005 did the US oil Strategic Oil Reserve was filled to capacity. That had to be used after Katrina and now again after Rita. Furthermore most of the oil production in the Lower 48 is concentrated in Louisiana today (With some still in Texas, Oklahoma, California and Alaska). This was directly hit by Katrina. Thus not only is US oil reserve FALLING, so is its oil production (Which increased the last couple of years after decades of decline, mostly from new off-shore oil wells off Louisiana's coast line).
All together the above is NOT a pleasant situation and BUSH can do nothing about it. He has maxed out the troops so if the other oil producers do an embargo, he can threaten them with being bombed (and even nuked) but bombing will NOT get the arabs to ship out their oil. To get the oil you have to occupy and Bush does NOT have the troops to Occupy (and the draft is a non-started based on the polls).
Bush has to choices, first ask for a rapid expansion of the Army, but that would require the draft or he can pull out of Iraq. Politically he can NOT get the Draft and he does NOT want to pull out of Iraq. This he fumes. He is caught in his own trap and does not have enough courage to get out of it. He will NOT ask for a draft, nor will he pull out of Iraq.
I have seen people in his situation before and they tend to look like he does, caught between two things he does NOT want to do. Refusing to do either but the longer he waits the worse the situation becomes. (and thus the pressure on him to do something). Katrina and Rita made the situation worse for both showed America's economic and planning weakness and I believe reinforced the desire for the Arabs to do the Embargo AND DRIVE THE US OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST.
The US will not be technically driven out, our troops will just run out of fuel, than food, than ammunition. Once out of all three the Troops will leave, wither by desertion or being pulled out. So how can Bush get out of this situation? First he can ask Congress for an expanded Army but Congress will refuse. Bush can wait for the proposed "Tet" Type offensive and the subsequent oil embargo to ask for the draft, but that will be to late (The Draftees will NOT be able to get to Iraq for 3-6 months at minimum, long after the US losses control of Iraq). Thus the Draft can NOT help Bush.
Long rant, but if the above is the situation we can see the US Army in Iraq destroyed by Christmas and nothing we can do about it.
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2004/10/11_hersh.shtmlhttp://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/01/26/1450204http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040510fa_facthttp://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/050725fa_facthttp://www.truthout.org/docs_05/011805A.shtml