If Arnold wins what does this mean for 2004?

[Trek234]

If Arnold wins this thing, what does it mean for the 2004 election? What kind of advantage will this give to the repubs?

I am very concerned about this... If CA goes repub (CA!) I have no idea what to expect in 2004.

Still hoping CA pulls through.

[jenk]

1. we will win California by 6-8 points minimum!

.

[ClintonTyree]

2. In my opinion.............

(remember, you asked) I don't think it will mean anything at all. There will be a backlash against Bush doing the same thing to the country that they perceive Grey Davis doing to California. The rethugs will never win California in 2004, Never.

[Democat]

3. If Republicans get 60% of the vote in this election, it is not a good sign

I don't care how many people keep saying California is a "safe" state, if the Republicans really pull over 60% in this election, then we are very far from safe in 2004 in California.

This will only motivated Republicans more to register more voters and get out the vote more.

Anyone who denies this is living in a fantasy.

Think about it - 60% of the voters may vote Republican in this election!

[DemNoir]

17. You are so very right

Those numbers cannot be shrugged off. If it holds up this is a disaster of immense porportions.

[azrak]

40. Cash your reality check NOW!

By my own research I think the "core" of the Democratic party is 30% of any given population, so when I saw this news brief I figured I was close.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031003.asp

[jab105]

4. a **movie star** is "winning in CA...

not a Republican...

[Dagaz]

5. It's a state election

There's no military to command and abortian is pretty safe in CA. Those will be big issues here against Bush so I'm not worried. This turned out to be a popularity contest and Davis had HUGE HUGE personal negativity ratings. Plus I bet that Arnold sucked in a lot of the 18-25 year old vote that will go Dem in '04.

[Classical_Liberal]

11. Watch out

Your not supposed to say that. I have been getting alerted to the mods for making such observations. This type of observation is considered pro-arnold.

[bluestateguy]

6. He'll be on the ballot alongside Bush

In his own recall election.

[LibDemAlways]

7. You can say that again.

The recall process will start immediately.

[Trek234]

9. Will that really matter though?

If Arnold wins what makes you think he won't win again?

If anything the repubs will spin such an issue against dems so much it's not even funny. The media will go a long with it too. We will see headlines "Dems costing XX millions of dollars!" "Dems trying to subvert democracy!"

It will play right in to repub hands, and could quite possibly hurt us badly in 2004.

[DemCam]

14. Sorry....

Hate to be a wet blanket here...but there will be noise about a recall but there won't be one.

If the media and the ricos have pulled this off...with a little collusion from events and poor Gray Davis's...as a Cal friend said..."wet dishrag personality"...then we have to live with the consequences.

My question? WHAT THE HELL CAN WE LEARN FROM IT?

[Zynx]

8. It doesn't mean a thing.

If gubernatorial elections meant anything, we would loose New York next year and win Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. None of those things will happen.

[even]

10. Nothing.

A.S. has a toxic personally. He will fail.

[DemCam]

12. Zip.

[BeFree]

13. Think Calif. is a mess now?

Just wait for it to get worse under the actor. He's about to get groped himself, big time!

California is going to get a taste of real-politic, real fast. And it's not gonna be pretty. Prediction: More than one elephant sized carcass will be littering the California landscape from the High Sierra to Death Valley, come next year.

[Trek234]

15. Are you sure?

Bush says he is ready to "work with him". If he wins this I bet you money Rove will have a support team out to him within days.

If Arnold surrounds him self with relatively smart people that know what they are doing he can't screw up nearly as badly as if he were making the calls him self.

[BeFree]

31. He's already had an orgy with Enron

You think * is gonna be able to help?? HahahahahahahahLOL

The state is broke. B R O K E. Unless a lot of defense spending (hmmmm) happens really fast, the Calif deficit will grow even larger. Or AS's cuts to spending piss off a hole lotta folks.

Then ya got the Calif. Legislature... think they are gonna roll over and play dead?

Prediction: AS wii come to rue the day he ran.

[DemCam]

32. This thought makes me sick.

I like to think I'm a realist...but this sort of realism turns to cynicism real quick.

They just can't buy the whole thing...can they?

They (incomprehensible to me but nonetheless...) got a "star"...to do their dirty work.

The rules have changed, its true. We need formidable candidates.

[DemNoir]

16. I think it may mean total disaster

If Arnold really wins by the margins being projected here it means we are in the most profound trouble imaginable.

[jeter]

18. nothing

It will have, if anything, a positive effect for us.

[tjdee]

19. It means WAKE THE FUCK UP, DEMOCRATS! Don't be BORING!

If Arnold wins CA, it means that even in California, or, Liberal Town, people WANT MOVIE STARS, or people with finesse, charm, all that stuff DUers like to poo poo.

That's what it means. It means don't send them some policy wonk talking about the top 1% of the bottom 45th percentile of the blah blah blah blah.

Americans, for better or worse, figure that candidates know what they're talking about. Just give them the BIG PICTURE, that's what they want. Then they can go back to work and forget about government until the next election. This is why George Bush got 47%.

Do most people have a brain in their heads? Sure. Which is why Gore won, and which is why Gray's numbers might even be bigger than Arnold's. But let's not ignore what this situation is telling us.

I swear, if the Democrats learn nothing from an Arnold victory, I don't even know what to do with them anymore.

That said---crossing fingers for Gray!!

[dwmcqueen]

20. Who voted for the recall procedure?

There is some talk, hopefully just talk, about recalling Arnold should he prevail tonight.

How about recalling all the individuals who enacted this draconian and ultimately undemocratic recall procedure? Any ideas where the roll of voting may be found on who enacted this bill? I say they should all be removed.

[tjdee]

23. Dems have too much class for that.

I think Arnie just finishes up Gray's term, and then in 2005(?) there will be another general election.

I see the Dems taking the high road (UGH, as usual) and shoring up support until then. I really don't see another recall circus happening.

Welcome to DU, btw.
:toast:

[dwmcqueen]

24. Thanks!

Yeah, I know. But I am really curious about how such a short-sighted bill got introduced and passed.

I don't want the Dems to recall Arnold because, as you say, we do have too much class for that. Recall those who caused this whole issue.

BTW, Long-time reader, first time poster ;P

[bluestateguy]

25. I'm not much interested in "class"

Max Cleland, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, George McGovern and Jean Carnahan all had "class". All were defeated.

[Democat]

27. The recall procedure is nearly 100 years old - it's from 1911!

Whatever the outcome, Gill said, "I think no good comes from this. It's expensive, it sets a bad precedent for governing, and it makes it hard for a governor to make difficult decisions.

"And that's not what the Progressive-era recall law was meant for," he said. "It was meant to give control to the people over the political clout of the railroads. At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, railroads had a high level of influence over California politics, and the law was written to diminish their corrupting influence."

http://gainesvillesun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031007/LOCAL/31007013/1007

The ironic thing is that the recall is now being used to put the power back in the hands of the big corporations fronted by an actor who doesn't even know what he stands for because the companies haven't told him yet!

[dwmcqueen]

28. Really??

I was not aware. Has it always been only 50% to recall?? That is what is preposterous about this whole thing to me. Seems to invalidate all fixed terms.

[dwmcqueen]

29. Code Cite

Do you have a citation to the code that provides for the recall?

[SteveG]

21. Arnie winning will hurt the Republicans

He will drive the Conservatives nuts, he will not do well with the State Legislature, he will be a noose around the Republicans neck. Some of the charges that have come out in the past few days, will stick. (that's my view from the East Coast.)

[snippy]

30. I agree, but I think the democrats in the legislature should support

Arnold and make the republicans be the obstructionists, if possible.

[Gman]

22. Not a damn thing.

[snippy]

26. Gotta turn the lemons into lemonade if Arnold wins.

Democrats should use Arnold's win to redefine the new republican party as being socially moderate. Democrats should say "we are willing to work with Arnold and we hope that all republicans, everywhere, including president Bush, will adopt his moderate views on social issues." This will drive the Reich wing fundamentalists ballistically apeshit, frothing at the mouth and bleeding from every other orifice with uncontrollable hatred and intolerance.

This in turn will force Whistle Ass and the republican party to either approve or disapprove of Arnold's "moderate" views on social issues. If Whistle Ass and the party choose to side with Arnold, the Reich wing will rebel and stay home. If Whistle Ass and the party choose to side with the Reich wing fundamentalists, millions of decent Americans will be disgusted and reject the republican party. Maybe Arnold will even switch parties.

I see Arnold's win as an opportunity to force the republican party to be either close to 100% or close to 0% Reich wing fundamentalists. Either is fatal for the republican party.

[Democat]

33. This is a great premise - you should expand it into an article for DU!

I like the idea a lot, please consider expanding upon it and submitting it as an article for DU. I think more people should read what you have to say, but today it will get buried quickly on the forum.

I'm sure DU could use some positive articles on the recall for the days after.

You can do it!

[AntiCoup2K4]

34. There's also a fatal flaw in your strategy...

in 2004, Whistle Ass will be looking for a way to convince middle of the road voters that, despite the tax cuts for the rich, bombing thousands of Afghan & Iraqi civilians into oblivion and leaving damn near EVERY child behind, he really is that moderate compassionate uniter - not - divider that he said he was in the 2000 campaign. Your strategy for Ahnold gives him a perfect vehicle to sell his lie.

[snippy]

37. But the Reich wing fundamentalists would abandon him.

Without them he loses. And lots of other republicans would lose as well without those votes.

[Trek234]

39. They already have

Listen to some of the nutty right wingers. (I suggest TBN) MANY of them are turning against him because he is already not right wing enough for them.

But listen - I think the problem is Bush will NEVER loose fundamentalist right wing support EVER. Why? Well, who are they going to vote for instead? The democrat? They will play by the same logic many democrats use. i.e. "Well I hate lieberman, but he's better than Bush so I'll have to vote for him"

[snippy]

47. I agree that Bush would never lose 100% of the Reich wing fundamentalist

vote. There has never been a politician or party that lost 100% of a portion of their base and there never will be. But the turnout of the base can vary significantly.

Close elections are won by turning out your base in a higher percentage than your opponent and by keeping the independent vote close. This is why so much time and money is spent trying to motivate your base and demoralize your opponent's base. If you carry the independent vote easily you win by a comfortable margin.

If the Reich wing fundamentalists are demoralized by the direction of the new republican party, some percentage will simply stay home. If that percentage is large enough, republicans will lose. An additional benefit of enraging the Reich wing fundamentalists is that it alienates moderate voters, both independents and some republicans.

[janx]

35. It means absolutely nothing! Just because some Californians

were stupid enough to go along with this blatent power grab, it doesn't necessarily follow that they will vote for any Republican. It was the AH-nold factor, the movie star appeal, that garnered his support.

This doesn't mean that the Republicans "own" California--not by a long shot.

[RummyTheDummy]

36. Absolutely nothing.

NT

[janx]

38. Wait--it does mean that the Dean campaign will work even harder.

This whole thing in California should not have happened; it's another scam power grab. Also, the guy who financed it and tried to buy the governor's office didn't gain any traction, so at least we can thank God for that.

[Yupster]

41. It gives Bush a 3 % bump in California

which means he only loses the state by 15 % instead of 18 %.

[xray s]

42. It means if Bush...

...changed his views on the social issues from extreme right to moderate left, and had no record to run on...he would have a chance in California.

Fortunately, that won't be the case.

[Skittles]

43. it means everything

Bush will be installed again; that's the plan. And that is exactly what will happen.

[gate of the sun]

44. I am concerned as well

when I saw MSNBC saying this in my hotmail that the recall was basically a done deal and arnold was going to win. I got scared!!!!!If that happens, I think it may be a done deal for the republicans. Personnally I can't believe he would win yet it maybe it will be another stolen election.

[hunter]

45. Hah hah, the GOP thinks their pig Arnold can fly!

They are so sure of it they put him on a big catapult and launched him up into the air...

Watch out for falling pigs.

[Fight_n_back]

46. It means the Republican Party

has been hijacked and pulled to the middle. Ah-nold would not have won the Republican nomination because he is too normal. It will end up being a good thing because it shows a descernible shift to the left in the nation.

[Frodo]

48. All it REALLY means is...

We better not run Gray or Cruz on the national ticket.

Do we really think A.S. would have beaten Feinstein? Or a dozen other Democrats?