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The outcome of the Recall election will give a good indication of how much the American public is paying attention to political news. In other words, are they voting with their heads or their heart, their minds or their emotions.
If Arnold wins, it shows that the American public still isn't really all that interested in politics, and the 04 election will probably come down to a popularity contest. This would be great for bush, because he has the name recognition.
If McClintock wins, it shows that the country is still sliding over to the right, not quite ready to give up on the hope that republicans can give all that they promised. This would not necessarialy be good for Bush because so many real republicans are not too happy with him, so a candidate like Gephardt or Leiberman could do well in the 04 election.
If Davis remains the governor it shows that people are paying attention to the news and are starting to show more concern for the issues and are basing their vote on what they believe is the best for the people. This would be a good thing for Dean, Kucinich, Kerry or Clark. These candidates are generally considered to be "for the people" candidates.
If Bustamante wins, then I'm not sure who would benefit more from this.
In any case, all the current 04 candidates should be paying attention to California, and planning how to use what happens today to their best advantage.
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