Initial Washington Post Exit Poll Data

[jiacinto]

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58572-2003Oct7.html

Among preliminary findings of a survey conducted for The Associated Press and other news organizations of Election Day and absentee voters in California's recall election:

- About seven in 10 Election Day voters said they made up their minds more than a month ago on how to vote on the recall.

- Voters were evenly split on whether the recall was a waste of money.

- About two-thirds of all voters said Arnold Schwarzenegger didn't address the issues in enough detail. A third of his own supporters said that.

- Six in 10 voters said their candidate's position on the issues was more important that the candidate's leadership or personal qualities.

- Voters were evenly split on whether California will be able to resolve its budget deficit without raising taxes.

- Fewer than one in 10 Election Day voters reported having problems with voting equipment or the length of the 135-candidate ballot.

- More than half of California voters said they have positive feelings about California's new domestic partners law. Two in 10 called themselves enthusiastic about the law, while at the other end of the emotional spectrum, at least one in 10 said they are angry about it.

- About seven in 10 said state government shouldn't issue driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

- Most Tom McClintock and Schwarzenegger voters were white, while about a quarter of Cruz Bustamante and Peter Camejo voters were Hispanic.

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[eileen_d]

1. kick n/t

[jiacinto]

2. Yeah

This data gives us little clue.

[eileen_d]

3. well, a few things are interesting to me

- The fact that 7/10 voters decided more than a month ago -- I'm not going to whip out any crystal balls, but that might indicate people are sticking to their principles (hopefully lots of the McClintock people, lol)

- I find it hard to believe that so many Californians did not see this as a waste of money. I don't mean this as a slam against Californians (going by birthplace, I am one ;)) but considering the budget crisis is the big issue, I expected more outrage on this issue.

Edit: I will whip out a crystal ball and say that this tidbit of info suggests a close race to me:

Voters were evenly split on whether California will be able to resolve its budget deficit without raising taxes.

[jiacinto]

4. Yeah

But what else do you see in these data?

[eileen_d]

5. i just edited - see above

sorry

[Spazito]

6. I love these two points!

- About two-thirds of all voters said Arnold Schwarzenegger didn't address the issues in enough detail. A third of his own supporters said that.

- Six in 10 voters said their candidate's position on the issues was more important that the candidate's leadership or personal qualities.

[jiacinto]

8. Yeah

I wonder how that will translate in the balloting, although Drudge expects Arnold to win.

[grasswire]

12. that's what hit me, too

Positions are important, and Arnold didn't articulate any.

Pretty revealing.

[Democat]

7. There is one useless question

- Six in 10 voters said their candidate's position on the issues was more important that the candidate's leadership or personal qualities.

Because Arnold doesn't have a position on any major issues, they should have asked about party affiliation instead of issues.

The truth is that Republicans are voting for Arnold because they were told to, not because they even know what he stands for. No one knows what his positions are, not even him until the White House tells him.

[Junkdrawer]

9. Bustamante led most polls a month ago...

So if most people made up their minds a month ago, it would be odd if he lost by 20% or more, right?


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/recall/20030911-1719-ca-recall-bustamante.html

[jiacinto]

10. Who knows

This is still really upsetting as I think the inside info predicts an Arnold victory.

[loudnclear]

11. Race trumps everything. The licensing of illegal immigrant will sink

Davis. Count on it!

[w4rma]

13. very very rough analysis

- Voters were evenly split on whether the recall was a waste of money.

- Voters were evenly split on whether California will be able to resolve its budget deficit without raising taxes.

- About seven in 10 said state government shouldn't issue driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

Looks like it might be a close race on whether to recall Davis, but the dislike of the illegal immigrant bill leads me to predict he loses non-absentee ballots by about 8%: 46% to 54%

- About two-thirds of all voters said Arnold Schwarzenegger didn't address the issues in enough detail. A third of his own supporters said that.

66% think Arnold didn't address the issues. That leaves about 33% who did think that Arnold *did* address the issues. So I'll assume that those 33% are arnold supporters. And since 1/3 of Arnold's supporters said he didn't address the issues, that gives Arnold about 33*0.5 = 16% + 33% = 49% for Arnold? Probably some of those liked him but didn't vote for him so I'll say Arnold gets about 42%

Not good. :(

[jiacinto]

14. Yeah I know

nt

[Emillereid]

15. These data don't make sense --

if 60% say that their candidate's positions on real issues were important and most admit that Ahhhhnuuuuld didn't articulate any -- why is he going to win?

[jiacinto]

16. Well

All I can say is that Life doesn't make sense.