now 55.0 to 45.0 = .4 shift in last update

[Must_B_Free]

was 55.4 to 44.6 when I checked earlier...

[Ediacara]

1. still only 46% of precincts reporting

[bluestateguy]

2. The numbers just aren't there

It may drop to like 53-47 at best, but there just are not enough precincts out to cover the spread.

I held out for awhile too, and I was outraged that the networks called the race at 8:00, but the election is now over and the recall Arnold movement is on!

[Must_B_Free]

4. 2 million absentee ballots

how can ytou say the numbers aren't there?

my guess is that the majority of absentees are people who were suspicious of the electronic voting machines, i.e. democrats.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. Is is possible that Davis will get more votes than Arnie?

.

[toska]

3. My prediction

It's looking like 53% for recall after projecting the county results so far. Big unknowns are Alameda and Orange County which will probably balance each other.

Other important counties to watch for a Democratic response are Monterey, Los Angeles, Santa Cruz, San Diego

[Terwilliger]

6. the only thing that would significantly affect outcome is absentee...

or provisional ballots coming in

I don't see it, Must :shrug:

[toska]

7. May already be included

Many counties like Orange reported votes (200k) with 0 precincts. So I don't think absentee votes will make much difference.