"We could be looking at $10-a-gallon gas this winter."

[serryjw]

FINALLY some one from this administration is talking truth to power...What does * think? (Simmons is also an energy advisor to President Bush.)
quote.....
Matt Simmons believes the natural disaster may well be remembered as the start of "our great energy war." "We're almost at the verge of having real energy shortages," Simmons said last Friday, when he issued a wake-up call to a standing-room only audience at the Center for the Arts. "We could be looking at $10-a-gallon gas this winter."

In direct opposition to the Bush administration's energy projections earlier this year ­ which assumes Saudi production, now at 10 mbd, would increase another 12.5 mbd ­ Simmons said, "The likelihood of Saudi Arabia being able to produce 20 to 25 mbd is so low that it should almost be deemed impossible. The likelihood that they could hit 12 mbd and keep this up for 20 years, let alone 50 years or more, is not very high. "We are in a deep energy hole," he concluded. "We must create a Plan B to ensure the future of energy, or we won't have a future of energy."
Finally, Simmons advocated establishing a conservation plan to determine ways to do more with less. "We need to address the shipment of goods," he said, "which is by far the single worst way we use energy. Public Enemy Number One is ironically not the SUV; it's large trucks going long distances over our highways." To increase efficiency and cost savings, railroads and freight cars are preferred transport modes.

"One final word about Katrina and Rita," Simmons concluded. "They were our Fort Sumpters, but we needed a wake-up call."]/b]

Good Morning America!

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/093005_world_stories.shtml

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Our Ft. Sumpters

but I fear we are taking the side of the Confederacy in how we are dealing with it...and you know what happened to the Confederacy.

[rkc3]

2. Will he be an adviser to the admin on Monday morning?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Lip service

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. That about sums it up

[dcfirefighter]

5. Federalize the railroads like we did the national highway system

Feds own the right-of-ways
contract out rail maintenance to federal specifications
feds auction off time slots to private rail freight companies

while we're at it, maybe put rail lines on the fast shoulder of the federal highway system.

and, as always, I'll take this moment to put in a plug for a carbon tax - funded universal energy credit. ($100/person, about 10c a ton C, 5c a gallon gas).

[LibMan11]

10. As a railroad employee...

The right of way is owned by the railroad. They were given sweetheart deals (often free) especially in the West in the late 19th century for the purpose of opening up the country.

Rail maintenance is already regulated by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). Class I's already contract much of it out.

As far as putting rail lines next to the Interstates, I'm all for it; however the going rate for implementation of Centralized Traffic Control (CTC) is $1 million per mile.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Interstate highway system was built by the federal government during the Eisenhower administration, it was not already in place and "federalized."

I happen to be a employee of a major Class I. I can say with 100% confidence that the Class I's will remain in private hands for generations to come.

I am all for heavy-rail mass transit. It is vastly more efficient, and the administration should be looking to expand Amtrak, not kill it.

[LizMoonstar]

18. oh man. i so want this. no more 12 hour round trip drives to MN for me!

[newyawker99]

23. Hi LibMan11!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[crispini]

25. Do you have something that notifies you when new people log on?

Cause you're amazing! :7

[crispini]

24. Question for you re: heavy-rail mass transit:

How can we make it speedier? I had a friend who rode Amtrack from Chicago to Austin. It took INCREDIBLY long. For comparison purposes, you can drive from Dallas to Austin in 3-4 hours. It took her about 6 hours to go the comparable distance via rail.

She told me that because BNSF owns all the track down here in Texas, that they had to yield the right of way to every single train they encountered.

How can we make rail travel faster and thereby more appealing?

Oh, and welcome to DU btw! :hi:

[LibMan11]

26. re: heavy-rail mass transit

Theoretical top speed is 79 mph on a Talgo-type train (it tilts around corners). Standard passenger speeds vary from 25-60 mph. Keep in mind that there are few stretches where this speed can be kept up for a long time. The track is (was) built first and foremost to haul freight, and is more suited to that purpose as freight speeds are much slower. Hence no reason to "grade out" curves and hills. I am no expert on Japanese rail, but I believe their roads are purpose-built to carry passengers. Thus the higher average and top speed.

The hours of service are federally limited to 12 hours. That means that if you have a freight train with a crew "dead" in 2 hours and it's an hour to the next crew-change point, they will likely get priority over all other traffic, including passenger. However, in my neck of the woods, generally all freight is stopped on sidings (in single track locations) to let Amtrak get around. The amount of money the Class I's get from Amtrak are in direct correlation to actual vs. scheduled arrival and departure times.

The current rail infrastructure limits speed of all trains. Most Class I's are already exceeding their designed capacity in their terminals. A consequence of cheap asian imports. Just remember, EVERYTHING is transported by rail.

[VolcanoJen]

28. Welcome to DU, LibMan!

:toast: :toast: :toast:

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Add 12-24 months to any FTW prediction

They predicted the nautral gas crisis we're having now, for 1993-4.

You might think this is a snarky way of kicking Ruppert in the teeth. It isn't. That fact that he's a mere 2 years off in predictions makes him one of the most successful prophets around. Warts and all, Ruppert's stuff is worth reading.

This winter, things will be bad, but not THAT bad.

Not yet.

--p!
As always, I could be wrong.

[Mr Rabble]

Very astute.

I agree with you 100%. Like him or not, Ruppert is very accurate in his assessments of energy policy.

The only thing that you can say is that his timing might be premature.

That is NOT reassuring.

[serryjw]

20. I have to agree

I think Ruppert is very accurate, maybe a little premature. What NO ONE is talking about is how the climate of the ME can impact this...We could see a war in IRAN or a civil war in Arabia in the next couple of years. IF this happens ALL the oil can be in jeopardy

[MadHound]

22. I indeed hope that you are correct

I've been radically modifying my energy use and how I gather it. I am aprox two years away from being fairly energy indenpendent, and if we can hold this shit together for another couple of years, that would be great. I will be getting a wood stove next year, and will be buying a wind turbine and 2Kw worth of solar panels within two years. Due to economic restrictions, I can't do it any sooner. Let us hope that this holds together until then.

If you can at all afford to people, I would suggest that you start investing in your own energy production. Solar panels can go on virtually any roof, and a wind turbine only takes up a quarter of an acre footprint. You can manufacture your own biodiesel in your garage too.

Do this now, for in the relatively near future it will be impossible.

[Dogmudgeon]

27. I am so f***ed ... or am I?

My first inkling of what could happen came in the middle 1970s during the OPEC export actions (basically embargoes in the face of American arrogance). I was in high school, but I started reading up on home-built energy, what would later become "survivalism", the whole Mother Earth News scene.

I think it did me a world of good.

However, now that I'm in my middle age, and through the randomness of life, I've spent the past five years of my life broke, in poor health, and dealing with dying family members. I live in a modest apartment with my mother (Dad, Granny, and an aunt having passed on). Each of my brothers are married and have kids; one is nearby, and one lives in Orlando.

If an economic collapse happened, we'd be out of the apartment tout de suite. For a little while I thought that my brother nearby would take us in, but he and his wife still have 27 years left on their 30-year mortgage. One defaulted payment and away they would go.

I'm not in a position to just go out and get a job right now. I have a tremendous range of skills, but I also have enough illnesses to make me a liability. I've been recovering -- my muscle-weakness problem has improved a lot -- but I'm at least two years away from being able to do a 9-5 daily sentence in a cube farm.

Therefore, my ability to put away food and survival gear is limited. I've been impressing upon Mom to keep a 2-week supply of food on hand, and to make sure we have plenty of battery-powered stuff, like lanterns and radios. We also have a battery-powered TV, which could become handy in an emergency. I've also been looking for a cheap laptop computer on e-bay; something like a Pentium 1 based thing for about $100, and load it with a Linux suite.

Generating power, though, is more expensive. I know a lot of cheap tricks, but how would they work out? I know how to make biodiesel, but in the event of a big energy crunch, so would lots of other people -- it's just not that difficult to make. I have friends who own a Chinese restaurant, and go through oil like Bush goes through money, but if push came to shove, that would be THEIR biodiesel. And what they didn't use, they would sell. They are not price gougers, but they are quite astute with money, having come over from southern China with just a couple of dollars and a friend who was able to convince the Tong to not squeeze them too hard.

Solar is good, and I know how to make solar heat collectors for as little as twenty bucks. But I'm not sure the landlord would let me hang them outside. They're not even very forgiving of window fans. On the other hand, I have been thinking about doing some informal consulting for the landlord on economical solar upgrades. And I'll hope that if an economic crisis hits, he won't throw us out into the street.

This winter, if heating gas is expensive, we're going to experiment with keeping the thermostat at 50F for a day or two. Mom's in great shape for a 70-year-old broad, and while I am still at less than my prime, I have no trouble with temperature extremes, even though one of the precipitating events for my current troubles was a bout of heatstroke.

Living spartanly probably isn't going to be all that bad for most of us, even during cold snaps, snowstorms, heat waves, or droughts. But the point is that we shouldn't have to plan for the worst. There is no reason why we can't have a well-organized, orderly power-down for the years during which we're developing new energy sources and more energy-efficient ways of doing things. It may become difficult to keep the winter heat up at 75F, but 65F shouldn't be all that bad for most people.

I still think that 90% of the game is going to be mental preparation. There will certainly be a lot of people who will be stocked up for the long run, with off-grid energy capability, who will still be unprepared for the way their world changes.

The first thing I did, when I got sick, was to learn to keep in mind that the world was still a good place, and that life was always a fantastic "gift", even if we couldn't determine the nature of our Benefactor with precision. Such contemplation has kept me from becoming a prematurely old invalid. It may be difficult to keep that in mind during an era of ignorant tyrants, but I can testify that it's well worth it. The best days of our lives, individually and as a nation, may be when we have to live lean and depend on daily innovation.

And if a miracle occurs, well, we'll be able to enjoy it all the more.

--p!

[hippiechick]

7. The BFEE can't let $10/gal happen ...

... it will crash what's left of the economy and the sheeple will finally be in the streets, in full revolt.

They'll push us to the breaking point to maximize their profits, but not beyond, because they know that workers who can get to work and have a little moolah to spend on the weekends are what makes capitalism successful.

They're not going to cut off their own feet.

[havocmom]

11. They've been cutting the ground out from under the people who do keep

the economy afloat ever since 95. They won't stop until Americas are so starved they beg Congress to gut environmental portection laws, OSHA, and all wage/benefit protections.

When they have turned America into Colonial Mexico, with a peasant class and the ruling class, their mission will be complete. The are not interested in Capitalism so they do not care about the middle class and the consumer/workers.

[YapiYapo]

15. It's a World market

If Saudi arabia oil production start to decline, world demand won't be met (china,india with their growing market keep increasing their demand by several % a year.)
If demand cannot be met,price can only skyrocket.There won't be much any body can do as soon as market realize oil can only get more expensive since it's declining fast.

According to many source on the industry the saudi are actually in panic , drilling hole everywhere as their big fiel (ghawar) are depleting fast.They injected too much water too fast to keep increasing production for year, now this is starting to bite them.

You are right about what would happen.Total chaos,millions (if not billions) deaths worldwide.If only we will have pay much attention in the 70' after the first crisis, now it's too late,very soon (2-3 years at best) we will hit the wall without any seatbell or airbag :(

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=7081371&mid=123284

I had an interesting conversation this morning with a Haliburton employee just back from Saudi Arabia. His conversation confirmed what we have been hearing. He said: "people think Saudi Arabia has a lot of oil, but they have been injecting water to increase production for years, and now the production from their giant fields is depleting very rapidly. The Saudis are in panic, pulling in rigs from everywhere, punching more holes in the ground to get quick production to stave off rapid old field production decline, and to keep up appearances. Workers are there from many nations to drill the sites, but the new wells are not very prolific."

Reading between the lines, if Ghawar is still producing at gargantuan rates, why the race to get so many rigs to drill so many wells? And the new well production combined with flowing old well production should be showing huge increases in Saudi production supply. But the monthly reports of Saudi production has not been impressive. For example, last month, the Saudis reported an increase of 50,000bd, mostly sour crude. If Ghawar is depleting rapidly, then the Saudis have a major problem, for not only must they drill more to keep their production stable, but also to make up for the declining production of other OPEC producers. Like a juggler with too many plates in the air, at some point it can all crash down. Simmons stated that once Ghawar starts to go, it will drop very fast.

The old saying about the Saudis is you don’t listen to what they say, but you watch what they do. The account of frantic drilling activity and rig acquisition suggests they are in trouble. My friend’s perception is not just his personal one, he said, but one widely shared by those working the oil fields. FWIW

[ozymandius]

8. Federalize the petroleum industry.

They operate in the interest of national security. At the same time, they have profit incentive to interrupt fuel production. And they do.

[tx_dem41]

12. Do you have any proof of that? n/t

[ozymandius]

17. You mean proof of interrupting production and transport of energy?

I could cite the many complaints against Enron rigging shortages with power plant operators. They created a crisis then capitalized on it.

[tx_dem41]

19. Not comparable to what the OP is specifically talking about. n/t

[havocmom]

13. Used to work that way. Now, the national security works to their interest

And war is peace.

[havocmom]

9. Wait until all the comfortably well off have to start doing their own

domestic chores because the hired help can no longer afford to show up to landscape and clean house. They too will feel our pain! :eyes:

[Opusnone]

14. NO OIL FOR WAR!

[wellstone_democrat]

16. Are they deliberately talking it "up?"

so that expecting 8 or 10 dollar a gallon gas that we will all be "delighted" that it is *only* 5.00?

makes me wonder

[onenote]

21. My prediction: Gas won't even hit $5 a gallon this winter

There are a lot of "experts" who make all these predictions. I recall that right after Katrina, there were predictions that gas would go up to $4 and stay there. I'm no expert, but I'll offer my completely uneducated "opinion" -- gasoline prices will essentially stay in the $3.00 range through the winter. Some stations will be as high as $3.25 some will be as low as 2.90, but I'd be willing to bet my house that we will not see $10/gallon gas prices this winter.

onenote

[opihimoimoi]

29. How much oil went for the Iraqi War??? and more to come???

[Dogmudgeon]

30. Good point!

I do think that there will be a price rise, but we've seen most of it already. I'm personally planning for $3.50-$3.75, so $3 would be a pleasant break.

Heating gas will be much more expensive, but I doubt that it will be 71% more expensive, which is the "official" prediction. My local natural gas supplier has already made plans for a 26% increase, which is nasty, but not a bank-breaker.

The fear I have is that the situation will become radically worse over the next five to ten years. It's going to take at least that long to convert to more efficient energy use, new sources, and better ways of doing things. $5/gal gas for next winter is more likely; for winter of 2007, probable. But we're still at the "knee of the curve".

--p!

[shanti]

31. if that's the case

i'm thankful that my usual mode of transport to work is the train, and that many stores are conveniently located around my home.

many will not be so lucky:-(