Looking at the exit polls...our base didn't show up...theirs did.

[unfrigginreal]

I couldn't compare to results from the 2002 election so I compared to the exit polling in California for the 2000 election. Some interesting stats:

Party I.D.
2000 Dem 47% Rep 35% Ind 18%
2003 Dem 39% Rep 37% Ind 23%

Income
2000 <50,000 51% >50,000 49%
2003 <50,000 33% >50,000 67%

Union Household
2000 Yes 53% No 47%
2003 Yes 32% No 68%

Link for 2000 Exit Polling

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html

Link for 2003 Exit Polling

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/recallexitpoll.html

[YourDad]

1. there has to be some manipulation going on

something is fishy. it just doesn't seem right.

[HitmanLV]

2. it's called 'losing'

Sometimes you just get beat. This one wasn't even close.

[mddemo]

3. strategic withdrawal

its time to move on and plan the next assault, the voters decided we got to live with it.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. It's not the Apocalypse

Gov. Arnie is far from the worst thing that could happen to California.

1. Even though there will still be a substantial Democratic apparatus still intact in Sac'to, all the blame will be laid at the feet of the GOP, unless they can successfully paint Arnie as a RINO. Which then activates #3, #6, and #7.

2. As in #1, Cruz Bustamante will remain Lt. Governor.

3. Arnie is about as liberal as a Republican can be before the men in the white sheets show up.

4. The "Hollywood-libbrul" label has been, ahem, Terminated.

5. When they say "Bill Clinton's penis", we say, "Arnold Schwartzenegger's hands".

6. Since he ran as an independent-minded Republican, he will be under tremendous pressure to act indepenedently of Das Bushreich.

7. I'll repeat my prediction: after feeling that good old fashioned Republican/Conservative love-bombing, Arnie will change parties and become a Democrat by 2008, and possibly earlier.

The loss hurts, but there are several ways the California Democratic party can play it, just about all of them winning situations.


--bkl
Hasta Problemo

[joshcryer]

5. I agree. I'm reminded of what that other poster said.

That arnold was far from the ideal conservative.

The only thing that repulses me is his chavunism (sp?). Hope it bites him in the ass.

[AP]

6. He'll be the ideal conservative when he decimates UC system, lets Enron...

...of the hook, and refuses to make property tax fair.

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Governor Arnie's limited choices

Schwartzenegger is limited in what he can do precisely because of the way he ran (as an independent Republican), and the promises he made (bipartisanship). His high visibility is now a very sharp double-edged sword.

If the UC system is decimated for any reason, Arnie has to answer for it.

If property taxes remain unjust for any reason, Arnie has to answer for it.

Affirmative action, or anything like it? It's Arnie's problem now.

And problems with "illegals"? Arnie has to answer for it.

Medical marijuana? It has just become radioactive for our beloved and über-hip screen idol, Arnie.

Keep in mind, much more so than Bill Clinton, Arnold Schwartzenegger wants to be adored.

Enron is a federal case, but a high-ranking official -- such as a governor or a lieutenant governor -- can turn it into an issue. If Arnie keeps his mouth shut, and Cruz Bustamante can make it into an issue, it puts the Governor and the Bushistas into a tight situation, like two mangy rabid cats sewn together into a sack.

And then, too, Schwartzenegger will have to answer those charges of sexual assault, first in the press, then possibly in a court of law.

Gore was unable to hold Bush's feet to the fire because it has only been in the last six months that the Democratic/Liberal base has become activated, largely due to the candidacies of Dean, and now Clark. Schwartzenegger has found himself elected into a situation where his biggest liability is now his part affiliation.
But don't misunderstand me -- I don't think Schwartzenegger's win is a "good" thing. I'm saying that it's a defeat than can be turned around if the Democrats in California keep their fighting edge.

--bkl
Hasta molestar

[JHB]

24. ..."been given enough rope to Terminate himself"...

...is a phrase that springs to mind if you're right.

[even]

15. Thanks

Lotsa greenholes on this thread.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

19. yup...Enron was ordered to pay back $.80 on every dollar that they

cheated CA out of....now watch as Arnold rolls that back to $.10 on every dollar...Kenny Boyss 2001 meeting with pan out...and CA voters will phucking freak and have another RECALL

[Fatima]

25. That's what had my fur ruffled

the apparent lack of concern about his Ken Lay connections. Yes, Enron will benefit and California will get the shaft again...maybe this will be a needed lesson.

And no, he's not the WORST thing that could happen there, but then again look at the forces behind the whole recall movement. He is a pawn in the big game. Let's not take our attention off the game.

[HitmanLV]

9. Exactly, give Arnold a chance....

...and come back again, that's all.

[even]

16. You don't play defeat.

wake up and smell the BS.

[villager]

8. and now the progressive wing of the Cali Dems...

...can freely criticize the Governor. When Davis was building prisons, supporting the death penalty, and alienating his base, they more or less had to keep silent...

[unfrigginreal]

10. I agree...

This election should also serve as a wakeup call to the DLC hacks.

[Spentastic]

11. No it won't

They'll suggest that Joe Lieberman should bulk up some and consider making some action films and grabbing women.

I mean that's what the voters want!

Fight on their ground you lose. Always.

[unfrigginreal]

12. LOL

I hadn't thought of that. You're right, they'll read the results as sexual assault now being a centrist position.

[Spentastic]

13. Yeah! can you imagine.

All the campaign "memes"

Candidate X accused by thousands of women of sexual assault!

Candidate X knows nothing about politics but can bench 800lbs!

Get this in the mainstream it's the only way to win!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. LOL! Thanks for the comic image! nt

[birdman]

14. It's hard to say that the "base" didn't show up

when the turnout was 10% larger than it was last November.

Unions and Hispanics turned badly against Davis (who was
probably toast the day the recall signitures were certified).

The "base" (meaning the party's hard core voters) showed up.
Apparently a significant number just hated Davis and voted for
the recall.

[unfrigginreal]

17. Not sure what stats you're looking at...

The union vote went 51-49 Against the recall, but only 32% turned out. That turnout number should have been over 50% if our base was energized.

The Hispanic vote went 54%-46% Against the recall.

When 67% of the vote is cast by folks making over $50,000 a year, then our base didn't show up.

[Classical_Liberal]

18. Only 51% of unions voted against recalling Davis after the big

union efforts. I think that is really pathetic actually. Gore got a lot more loyalty from Unions even in states where he lost badly.

[unfrigginreal]

21. It is pathetic...but keep in mind that only 32% Union went to the polls.

You can make a pretty good case, based on the other numbers in the exit polls, that the GOP Union voters turned out in higher percentages in this election.

[FauxNewsBlues]

22. Davis shook down our union

When they didn't play ball, he slashed our state funding, then gave 7% raises to prison guards who tossed him $1,000,000.

Do you think that our union was enthused about Davis? The guy took money from developers, polluters and had the rules changed so they could triple the dioxin release into San Francisco bay. He ran so right on paroles that republicans legitimately criticized him for being uncompassionate. Davis was a terrible governor. I waited until the polls were closing to point this out here, and I kept my mouth shut with friends and co-workers, but I have to be honest here. I didn't like the guy.

[Classical_Liberal]

23. What is your union?

? Why did your union need to be shook down for money from Davis? What had Davis done that pissed your union off?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

20. LA County normally has 6,000 polling places for the recall only 1,500 open

in a democratic strong hold......can we say "disinfranchised"

[John_H]

27. A direct result of the arrogance of the Davis Admin. from top to bottom

When they were riding high, they dismissively blew off a wide range of base groups, were loathe to "share" any of the zillions they raised, and refused to carry much water messagewise. Last night it all came home to roost.