Clark, Dean, and the black vote. (Long, and worth it).

[Julien Sorel]

After Rush Limbaugh's comments about race and football sparked controversy last week, presidential candidates Howard Dean and Wesley Clark were quick to jump on the anti-Limbaugh bandwagon. Dean called Limbaugh's remarks "unacceptable" (though his campaign also made a gaffe in referring to Donovan McNabb as the quarterback of the "Philadelphia Jets") while Clark derided the comments as "hateful and ignorant speech."

The speedy responses of both campaigns could well suggest just how eager Democratic candidates are to burnish their credentials with black voters. The Democratic Party currently has two black candidates -- Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun -- seeking the nomination, but neither is likely to win a significant number of votes. Unless black voters and organizations prove as willing as the National Organization of Women -- which recently endorsed Moseley Braun -- to throw away their support on two unelectable candidates, the black vote should remain up for grabs. True, Jesse Jackson claimed a large percentage of black votes in the 1988 primaries, but, says Jerry Mayer, author of Running on Race: Racial Politics in Presidential Campaigns 1960-2000, "Al Sharpton is no Jesse Jackson. He has not shown that he can win a single vote outside of New York." Sharpton has sought Jackson's support, but so far Jackson has declined to make an endorsement. As recently as last month, according to a Zogby poll, both Moseley Braun and Sharpton were garnering only single-digit support from blacks in South Carolina.

...


The problems only get worse for Dean on questions of fiscal policy. His well-known tendency toward fiscal conservatism places him squarely at odds with black voters. For example, in a 2000 National Election Studies poll, more than a fifth of white respondents indicated that they supported cuts in government services -- including health and education -- in order to reduce spending, compared with just 5 percent of African Americans. Meanwhile, Dean has repeatedly expressed sympathy for a balanced-budget amendment despite its likely devastating effects on the nation's most disadvantaged. Add to this an unfortunate comment he once made about how welfare recipients "don't have any self-esteem -- if they did they'd be working," and you have a good indication of the obstacles Dean faces in his quest for support from the black community.

...

All of which gives Clark an opening. As with so many aspects of his nascent candidacy, it is unclear whether Clark will be able to turn potential assets with black voters into real support in primary states. But the ingredients are there. Clark hails from Arkansas and, like Clinton, can tell tales of living through the integration of schools in that state. He is comfortable with religious language, another skill that Clinton was able to use to great effect in black churches. And he has made clear that he enthusiastically supports affirmative action. Perhaps most significantly, Clark has spent most of his adult life in the armed forces, probably the most integrated working environment in the United States. Blacks occupy more management positions in the military than in any other sector of American society. And there are by far more black officers in the Army -- where Clark made his name and his home -- than in any other branch of the services.

Link


I think this is a big edge for Clark, and in fact it's one of the reasons I was drawn to his candidacy.

[Romberry]

1. Very poorly done article

I'm sorry to see that this is the work of doctoral candidates because it is riddled with unsupported assumptions and outright errors. Where to start?

I think the agenda of the authors is revealed in the first paragraph where some nameless Dean campaign staffer is said to have made a "gaffe" by getting the name of a football team wrong. How trivial is that? I'd say the answer is "very".

Second, these authors seem to think that Dean's support for the death penalty in extreme cases is not going to fly in the black community. Wonder why Bill Clinton and Al Gore, much to the right of Dean on the death penalty, received such strong support in the black community. Must have been some kind of mistake.

Third, the authors say "The problems only get worse for Dean on questions of fiscal policy. His well-known tendency toward fiscal conservatism places him squarely at odds with black voters." I could go back to Bill Clinton and Al Gore, fiscal conservatives for eight successful years, but instead I'm just going to point this out for the stupidity that it is. Actually, what I should point out is the way the authors seem to think black people are stupid.

They try to support the nonsense of fiscal policy equals lack of support with a survey that says "more than a fifth of white respondents indicated that they supported cuts in government services -- including health and education -- in order to reduce spending, compared with just 5 percent of African Americans." Well let's see here. A fifth of white people would be 20% which I see no reason to believe can not be attributed to the Republican base. (And what of the other four fifths?) Only 5% of black people feel the same way. From this the authors seem to conclude that blacks are looking for some kind of payoff and won't support a candidate (Clinton-Gore) who wants to balance the budget. Can you say non sequitur?

Money doesn't grow on trees and you can't live on credit beyond your means. Those who think otherwise aren't minority voters, they are Republicans.

If the authors wanted to write a puff piece for Clark, that is what they should have done. Instead they reached for negatives that aren't supported by the evidence. Minorities overwhelmingly supported the last social progressives/fiscal conservatives to run om the Democratic ticket. Those people were Bill Clinton and Al Gore. I see no reason to think that a common sense social liberal/fiscal conservative from Vermont could not draw the same support.

[Julien Sorel]

3. Hold on a second.

Third, the authors say "The problems only get worse for Dean on questions of fiscal policy. His well-known tendency toward fiscal conservatism places him squarely at odds with black voters." I could go back to Bill Clinton and Al Gore, fiscal conservatives for eight successful years, but instead I'm just going to point this out for the stupidity that it is. Actually, what I should point out is the way the authors seem to think black people are stupid.

Blacks voted for Clinton, but only after he won the nomination. Clinton himself actually won the nomination by appealing to whites more than blacks. This is a primary, and the simple fact is, people have a choice. As the authors correctly stated, Dean's record of fiscal tight-fistedness is not going to play well in the black community, and as long as blacks have an alternative, they are likely to take it.

They try to support the nonsense of fiscal policy equals lack of support with a survey that says "more than a fifth of white respondents indicated that they supported cuts in government services -- including health and education -- in order to reduce spending, compared with just 5 percent of African Americans." Well let's see here. A fifth of white people would be 20% which I see no reason to believe can not be attributed to the Republican base. (And what of the other four fifths?) Only 5% of black people feel the same way. From this the authors seem to conclude that blacks are looking for some kind of payoff and won't support a candidate (Clinton-Gore) who wants to balance the budget. Can you say non sequitur?

Again, you are mixing whom blacks will support in a primary with the support blacks gave to Clinton-Gore during the general election. Gore also had the benefit of Donna Brazile in his corner, who has a demonstrated record of being able to get out the black vote. Dean has no such advantages.

I'm certain that, if Dean is the chosen candidate, blacks would support him because he's an improvement over the alternative -- but he isn't likely to get widespread support among blacks in the primary. There are better choices.

[stickdog]

2. BlackPeopleLoveClark.com

Really, they do!

[wndycty]

4. Well a lot of us actually do love Clark. . .

http://www.aadl.us/