Clark leads in Very Interesting poll analysis....

[Bread and Circus]

Even though right now I think Dean is the
de facto front runner, this poll is quite
interesting...

It is a must see:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031010.asp#rm

[union_maid]

1. Wait til Sharpton and CMB are out

See that stat for race? I predict that the majority of the 35% that chose "other" will be in the Clark column after that. Note that Dean only beats Clark in the $75,000 and above income range. Clark is going to appeal to the real base of the Democratic party. Minorities and working class will be flocking to him, at least if the media lets him speak in future debates.

[ShaneGR]

3. That race category is VERY telling

I was surprised to see that he led the black too.

[poskonig]

24. I have a hunch this is the case.

I've talked with a black Democrat online periodically from California who defected from Dean to Clark.

[Kahuna]

27. I've been saying from day one, Clark would be the choice..

of black voters! I'm black. While I can't tell you how black folks would respond on specific issues, I can tell you what type of person appeals to black people. That much I can. Wait until the majority of black voters really know who he is. You will see that number quadrupple.

[morebunk]

45. Blacks don't really understand who Clark really represents...

He's AIPAC bought and bound. I tell you, they are everywhere...so they can't lose.

[newyawker99]

48. Hi morebunk!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Julien Sorel]

49. Please don't presume to tell me what I do and do not understand.

[Kahuna]

55. Ditto that! How typically condescending to tell us..

we don't know what's good for us.

[newsguyatl]

18. you gotta be kidding me

you think mosley braun, sharpton and especially kucinich supporters would back CLARK?!?!? the most democratic of the candidates supporting the most republican?!?!


ha, thanks, i needed an early morning chuckle...

[JI7]

19. well

i heard clark was more liberal than al sharpton. anytime i ask this nobody responds. but this is what i heard.

[Kahuna]

30. Guess what? Blacks want to win too.

I really can't understand why so many of you are surprised. I really don't get it.

[JI7]

33. i'm not surprised

i'm responding to the poster who was surprised supporters of braun, sharpton would vote for clark. and when i said i heard clark was more liberal than sharpton i wasn't joking. that IS what i heard.

[Kahuna]

36. Guess what? Most blacks aren't as liberal as Sharpton..

The Sharptons and Jacksons are self-appointed spokesmen for "black causes." They never ask black people what our concerns are. They're as bad as the beltway crowd. They preach to the choirs and think they have a concensus.

[Dob Bole]

23. Dean only leads in the $75, 000+ income bracket

That is telling as well. He has a lot of work to do to convince people that he is one of them. Right now he's only attracting white suburban pissed off people.

[Kahuna]

41. For now. That's likely to change too.

Just a hunch.

[Kahuna]

28. Hey newsguy! Newsflash to you! YES!!!!! Black voters will

definately defect from the Sharpton and CMB camps to back Clark. What do you think, we're stupid? We want to win too. :eyes: And, Kuchinich voters have already defected to camp Clark.

And tell me newsguy. How do you come up with your notion that black voters wouldn't support Clark? Are you black? Are you a professional pollster who has been plotting trends of black voters over the years? What is your basis for this indepth knowledge you profess to have of black voting trends?


I expect crickets from you. Either that or one of your foul attacks.

[Renew Deal]

2. Clark is leading some interesting groups.

Leading:
Men by 12 over Dean
Women
Whites
Blacks (though the secrets of other may make it close)
All age groups
All regions except East
All financial levels except the 75K+
Dems and leaning dems
Moderates and Conservatives. Dean is leading Liberals (wait until these people find out Clark is more liberal than Dean)
Both religions listed.

His support is amazingly broad.

[Kahuna]

31. I'm sorry but, DUers need to give it to us Wes Wingers...

for having enough political savvy for having correctly asserted that Clark would be the most appealing candidates across demographics and regions.

What more proof do they need before they say, 'hey, moderate/liberal Wes Wingers, you were right about Clark?'

[Bread and Circus]

4. kick

:kick:

Let's see more analysis

[CMT]

5. While Gallup says that the poll is essentially the same as

there last one it is interesting to note that in the previous Gallup poll Clark was leading Dean by nine-points, now it is five points (21-16).
No big deal but it does reflect some closing of the gap, plus Dean moved up from 13% (clumped with Lieberman, Kerry and Gep) to 16%.

So in analysing the subgroups Gallup has combined the two polls so the numbers for Dean actually might be better among some of those subgroups now than they were in the previous poll (which did have some to do with the hoopla of Clark entering the race)--since he did gain three-points from that poll to this poll, while Gen. Clark lost one-points.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

I'm pleased that Dean is making progress and while the General is the front-runner nationally we will keep working hard. It looks like beyond the south that Dean is quite competitive in every other region: The west, Midwest, and Northeast and I think we can gain ground some ground in the South--though I think there that Edwards will be Clark's major opposition.

[Renew Deal]

Delete

Delete

[Renew Deal]

6. The south is the Key to a general election.

That's another reason why it should be a "General" election.

[CMT]

7. maybe

and I expect Dean to do better than Gore in the south--carry West Virginia and possibly Louisania for instance, but the west,imo, is where Dems will really gain electoral votes with Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and maybe even Montana being battlegrounds and again,imo,probably more doable than many southern states.

[Renew Deal]

50. Colorado has been Dem once in the last 30 years.

We have piotential in most of the places you listed.

[RandomUser]

54. Regardless

of whether we sweep the south or not, or whoever our nominee is, we NEED to make a credible and threatening stance in the south. If we can't credibly take the South away from Bush, he'll be free to focus on the nonsouth battleground states. We need to keep him pinned there, spending his funds and campaigning. Otherwise, he'll count those places safe and spend his resources in other places. It will be a diaster if we concede the south or only make a token play for it.

[Kahuna]

56. Absolutely!

:yourock:

[RummyTheDummy]

51. Word!

Dean would be utterly anhilated in the SOuth in a general election. He isn't going to fare much better in the primaries.

[RandomUser]

57. Time will tell

At this point, I don't think he would play too well in the south, but the proof is in the pudding. If he can win the majority of the Southern primaries, he'll be in good shape. If he gets annihilated in the southern primaries, he'll probably get annihilated in the general election in the south.

[Kahuna]

58. "Activists" don't win general elections. Never have..

never will. By "activists" I'm referring to the supporters of Dean and Kucinich. You don't win elections by signing up for meetups and "deaning" internet polls. The saying goes, "all elections are local." Because they are.

[Bread and Circus]

8. Clark may be cutting into Dean's Lead

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5814-2003Oct9.html

[DemExpat]

9. Thanks, doc!

Interesting to see the categories broken down as they are here.

:kick:

DemEx

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Clark Is Drawing 65% of the 65 and Older Folks

These are the people that vote in highest numbers and this is the group the Pukes are targeting....

[Bread and Circus]

11. I noticed that as well....

To me, this poll analysis proves what
us ClarkBars have been saying since day 1.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That Augurs Well For Him in Florida....

Also, I noticed with Dean his support goes up as income goes up....

[Kahuna]

35. Yep....

We called it right from day one. But in all fairness to the doubting DUers, even the beltway insiders and professional pundits don't get it yet. Perhaps they never will. But we get it. ;)

:grouphug:

[ignatius]

13. I could be wrong here, but I think this is the group that tends to be

the most fearful,using my aunt and Grannie as examples since they were afraid to go out after dark.

I think this is telling in that the sense of security and strength the "general" brings to seniors could be a strong point in all age groups.

Dean-Clark, Clark-Dean, Kerry-Clark-Clark-Kerry...I think any of those tickets is strong and could beat Bush in a New York minute.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. All I Know

is there is a positive correlation between age and voting...

The older you are the more likely you are to vote....

Age trumps everything including income and education as a predictor of participation...

[bicentennial_baby]

15. Yep

Every time I go to vote, it is a sea of white hair, and there is never anybody even close to my age in the place (I'm 26)

[DemExpat]

16. I'm ashamed to say I only started voting after I turned 30.....

and until my 40s it was off and on....

The 2000 election really opened my eyes - when I saw what the Repubs did with Clinton and who was running against Gore.......

I have my 2 young adult children fired up for elections in the US as well as here in Holland.
I make them feel guilty if they say they're not going to vote......:D

DemEx

[bicentennial_baby]

17. Don't feel bad

My fiancee is 30 and has'nt voted before. I've finally convinced him that the stakes are too high for him to sit back and wallow in his voter apathy. Luckily, I got my lil brother started a year or two ago, and he's now a politically aware 21 year old white male Democratic voter!

[ignatius]

21. Good for you, give lil brother a "cyber" hug

from me.

[RandomUser]

20. you're right about the age correlation

Seniors have a greater pull on policies because they vote.

[Kahuna]

38. That senior crowd won't take kindly to the bashing..

of Clark by the other candidates. Seniors don't like that kind of thing. Also, bashing Clark for voting for repubs won't go over big with seniors either. That's a losing argument for the other candidates. Most voters over forty have voted for a republican at some time in their lives. Are the other candidates telling us, that if we voted for a republican, we're scumbags or something? Not cool.

[Kahuna]

22. The only reason they call Dean the "frontrunner" is because..

he leads in the first primary and maybe the second. That's it for him. PERIOD.

This poll results reflect exactly what we Wes Wingers have said all along. Clark gets the most support across demographics and regions. According to the age breakdown, Clark leads in all groups including the 18 to 29 bracket.

snip for the original posted link..

[gully]

26. Sometimes that's what it takes....

Getting the first two states.

[Kahuna]

37. Think: Bill Clinton.

nt

[ignatius]

40. I love the Wes Wingers title. That is catchy and clever, and I

am proud to be part of that group.

[RummyTheDummy]

52. That's the key to Clark's campaign in my opinion...

He has to weather what could be a rough period in Iowa and NH but he would be poised to clean up in the Super Tuesday states a few weeks later.

[gully]

25. Interesting that it's registered 'voters' not dems...

In addition, Clark has much support among those that describe themselves as 'conservative'...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. If All The Conservative Democrats In 00 Stayed Loyal to Gore

he would have won in a walk....

I'll support folks to the right of me.... I'll support folks to the left of me... I'll work with any person of good will to defeat *...

Bush is the antithesis of a conservative... He shames that tradition.... He is a radical and a reactionary.....

[RandomUser]

34. Good

We're going to need them all in the general election. I may not agree with "conservatives" but I'll take their votes all the same. And any vote they cast for Clark is one vote Bush won't get -- that ends up being a two vote lead. We take one away from Bush's column, and add one to ours. But if they don't like Bush and they don't like the dem nominee, they'll stay home instead of voting for Bush like they usually might -- that ends up being only a one vote lead.

Clark is also leading amongst moderates. Maybe he'll shoot up amongst liberals when they find out he's more liberal than Dean.

[poskonig]

32. Interesting: Clark does better among fogeys, Dean does well out west.

Perhaps the "anger" stuff works better on the west coast, and older people are more into the superficial patriotism marketing. No?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Maybe Gep's Medicare Attacks Are Working

but for Clark....


A guy who has been around the block as many times as Gep should know when candidate X bashs candidate y candidate z benefits...

but Gep has no choice.....

[RandomUser]

43. Yep, Gep's between a rock and a hard place

He needs to beat Dean for Iowa to stay in the race. Clark doesn't, so he can stay above the fray and take the high ground, reaping the benefits of the Dean-Gep battle. As Dean and Gep attack each other, they'll both sink a bit, helping Clark rise. I don't envy Gep's choices. Stay silent and lose to Dean. Or attack Dean and inadvertently helping Clark.

[Kahuna]

44. Gep could be our next VP because he polls well ..

nationally. I wouldn't be mad at all if he were selected to run as VP.

[DemCam]

46. Now that's an interesting thought...

And it certainly gives Clark some help in the the domestic issues deparment. The more I think about that...the more I like it. And we know that Gep is a workhorse.

[RandomUser]

47. Interesting

But I would vote for any Dem ticket, so it's pretty academic at this point for me :)

[Speck Tater]

42. One other important group...

Nationwide polls at this stage in the campaign are polling those people who are paying the least attention to what's going on. I think the polls in the early primary states are the only one that matter right now.

So another way of putting that is that Clark is in the lead among those least well informed.

[WhosNext]

53. Surprised at how poorly Edwards is doing

3 percent?

Everytime I watch him, he seems to do really well. I wonder why he consistently polls so low.